Looking for a way to get into this weekend’s NRL Grand Final action and avoid the ads and yelling on Channel Nein, but don’t have the time to examine the form guide, Facebook pages, Fox Sports website, to help with your selections? Of course you can always try the excellent NRL Tipping Club and you should. But if none of those options work for you The Gurgler website is here and nothing if not helpful, so to help the keen NRL punter we offer up our NRL Grand Final Bets Analysis with Best Bets.
We’ve done the math and the homework of all our stats and offer up just our favourite suggested bet in each game. Then roll them up in a mega multi at the end.
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NRL Grand Final Bets & Advice
Normally we offer one betting special for every game every round. But given there’s only two games, we’ll offer up a Same Game Multi for each game.
Odds courtesy of Sportsbet and correct at time of use.
SUNDAY 7:30PM – ROOSTERS v NEWCASTLE – MEGA MULTI
Mega Multi:
TOTAL POINTS UNDER 46.5 PTS @ $1.52
ROOSTERS TO SCORE FIRST TRY @ $1.60
NEWCASTLE +8.5 START @ $1.72 (Pick Your Own Line)
ROBERT TOIA TO SCORE ANYTIME @ $2.55
DOM YOUNG TO SCORE ANYTIME @ $2.40
MEGA MULTI @ $25.60
Seven of the last nine games between these sides has seen a total match points total of under 46.5, four of those seven games saw a total under 40 points. Plus both sides are currently conceding well under their non-finals totals in the 2026 Finals Series, Newcastle have halved their points conceded from 24.9 to 11.3. The Roosters defence has also tightened. This is combined with Newcastle also scoring less themselves.
Roosters do hold the season-high record of scoring the first try with 18, which is only two more than Newcastle’s 16 for the 2026 season, but going with the more Finals experience. Our anytime try scorers are discussed in the try scoring section.
We really want to outright bet on Newcastle but ended up playing it safe. Even with a six-game winning run for the Roosters, they have won four games in that run by four points or less, so despite the losses games can be tight. And this is a Grand Final after all.
Given both of these sides have good second half records, and games involving them average more points scored in the second half, we’re going with the second 40 minutes to outscore the potential arm wrestle of the first game.
SUNDAY 7:30PM – ROOSTERS v NEWCASTLE – TRY SCORING
Try Scoring Tips:
FIRST: Robert Toia @ $11
ANYTIME: Fletcher Sharpe @ $3.25
ANYTIME: Bradman Best @ $3.60
LAST: Dom Young @ $10.50
MEGA MULTI @ $1,351
Both sides are at the sharp end for first tries with Roosters leading the competition with 18 and Newcastle not far behind with 16. Centres have scored tries against Newcastle almost as frequently as Wingers and it just so happens that both of their centres have three first tries each. But going with Robert Toia as he has been a centre all year and Billy Smith’s numbers may be boosted from some time on the wing.
For last try scorers, the Roosters leak a lot through the wings, and the Knights have two good try scorers on the wing. Dom Young has scored in every Finals match so far for Newcastle, and has a solid four last tries in NRL Season 2026, so why not see him do it again and against the club that got rid of him, and last to seal the premiership deal.
Fletcher Sharpe is one of our choices for one of the anytime scorers. He actually has the highest first try personal total of the players between the two Grand Finalists for first tries, but since we think the Roosters might just score the first one, Sharpe might be good for one of the next, at anytime.
And Bradman Best is a big game player, as seen in State of Origin, so why would a Grand Final stage be any different. And his surname is Bets jumbled……
Other NRL Grand Final Helpful Betting Stats
GENERAL FINALS v REGULAR SEASON STATS
FINALS RECORD
POINTS
HALVES
