The 2023 NRL Grand Final is here, with the Penrith Panthers looking for a rare third straight premiership, and the Brisbane Broncos looking for a first title since 2006. The two teams finished the regular season first and second, and it is hard to argue they weren’t the best two teams all season. But they play in such different styles, which makes picking the winner this Sunday so hard. To help with tipping, friendly wagers between family and friends or a responsible bet, here is our 2023 NRL Grand Final Tips Summary.

Our 2023 NRL Grand Final Tips Summary offers up a few key stats on the major markets of interest for the big game on Sunday, with visuals and some commentary.

So enjoy our tips summary, and good luck with tipping fr the 2023 NRL Grand Final.

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2023 NRL Grand Final Tips – The GF Calculator

We’ve taken as many key H2H and season stats as our brain would allow and come up with an overall average %. 

Verdict: It’s almost too close to call. The above stats just gives it to the Panthers, all things considered.

2023 NRL Grand Final Tips – H2H RECORD

Here is the big H2H Stats Summary that sums up they key results between Penrith and Brisbane.

Verdict: – Long term it is Brisbane, recently it is Penrith with the upper hand. From 2020 the Panthers lead 5-1 in H2H with the only win coming in Round 1 this season. But you can’t overlook the H2H on a Sunday or the 5-0 advantage at the Olympic Stadium.

2023 NRL Grand Final Tips – First & Last Try Scorer

These two teams are among the best for first and last try scoring this season, so here are some visuals to show which players are best to keep an eye on.

Verdict: – A few standouts in the first and last try scorer, with Stephen Crichton an excellent chance to open the scoring in the 2023 NRL Grand Final. Brian To’o looks equally capable of scoring the last try too, but we are plumping for a late Broncos charge which ends with a Reece Walsh try to seal the game.

2023 NRL Grand Final Tips – First / Second Half Stats

Just once between these teams has a side led at half time and lost. So the lead at half time is as important as ever, and as you’d expect.

HALF TIME RESULT TO END GAME RESULT

Verdict: Being behind at half doesn’t seem to bother Brisbane as much, so if they are within 8 points, then they can power home to victory.

2023 NRL Grand Final Tips – Try Time

Want to know when both teams score their tries? The below will help to know when the teams most of their tries, and help you make some money.

Verdict: Get on early with Penrith, and get on late for the Broncos.

The biggest game of the NRL season is here with the Penrith Panthers and Brisbane Broncos facing off to be crowned the 2023 NRL Champions. And talking of champions, our 2023 NRL Grand Final Stats and Tips Summary is here to help to pick the winner or who to support.

Each week we offer up a quick preview glance for each match, a bunch of barely interesting stats, probably more than one could ever need or want. So read on for tips and stats to help you find a winner.

But our 2023 NRL Grand Final Stats and Tips Summary is our biggest effort ever. With more visuals, and more stats. There should be something for everyone.

2023 NRL Grand Final Tips

Here are our tips for the week ahead. How did we get to here? By going through all the visuals and stats below.

PENRITH PANTHERS v BRISBANE BRONCOS

Kick Off 7:30PM (Sydney) 6:30PM (Brisbane)

GURGLER TIP

PENRITH 18 BRISBANE 26

2023 NRL Grand Final Summary

The 2023 NRL Grand Final is set up perfectly really. 

On one hand you have the league’s most dominant teams of the NRL era in Penrith Panthers facing a club that has produced a dominant team or two of their own in the past. The Broncos have come a long way since finishing dead last in 2020, and appear to be not suffering any hangover from throwing away a finals spot in 2022. 

Penrith are so good and so bloody consistent week in and week out, it is almost impossible to beat them at their own game. They have the best halfback in the world, probably the best lock, and the best lots of things, plus a solid base of a side that have played and won together for the past three seasons.

Luckily the Broncos aren’t a team that will try and out-Penrith the Panthers. Their devil-may-care rugby league will bring errors, penalties, and occasionally abuse of a referee or someone nearby, but they can also explode into life at the drop of a hat. Or a pass to Reece Walsh.

If the Broncos can upset the apple cart of Penrith early with an early blitz of two tries, and the Panthers aren’t used to going behind often, keep the errors to a minimum, then the Broncos can win the 2023 NRL Title. If they go too far behind too early, we can’t see the relentless Panthers machine giving them anything, and a third premiership in a row awaits.

BARELY INTERESTING STATS

• Broncos have won all five clashes against Penrith at the Olympic Stadium.
• Penrith have won eight finals games in a row. Conceding 12 points or less on all of those occasions.
• Penrith have won all three Sunday fixtures this season. Brisbane have lost their only match on a Sunday.
• Penrith’s worst day for conceding points is Sunday. Their 2023 record for Sunday is 16.7 points compared to their overall 12.4 points.
• Brisbane have won their last two at the Olympic Stadium. Newcastle have won 9 of their last 11 at the Olympic Stadium.
• Broncos have conceded zero points in three of their four halves in the finals series compared to Penrith’s two.
• Penrith have won their last five games v Qld sides on a Sunday.

2023 NRL Grand Final Stats – H2H Stats

Looking for a cheat sheet for the weekend’s upcoming games?

Here’s as much information that we could cram into one size fits all visual.

The Broncos hold the overall record since 1998, but the Panthers have the recent record.

2023 NRL Grand Final Stats – Finals Stats from 1998

Here is each team’s final stats from 1998. 

Penrith’s recent domination of NRL trophies has dragged up their overall finals record.

The opposite for Brisbane, whose recent record isn’t great, except for this season of course.

2023 NRL Grand Final Stats – Key Player Stats H2H

Here are the best of the player H2H for the big game this weekend.

We start off at the fullback position where the ever reliable and unsung Dylan Edwards is up against the far more flashy but risky Reece Walsh. Will those steely nerves, fantastic season stats and solidity of Dylan Edwards be the key to the 2023 NRL Grand Final, or will the game be torn apart by Walsh?

You an’t compare players in this game without looking at the the halfbacks, with Nathan Cleary being the benchmark in the competition for years, and Adam Reynolds being the super reliable halfback that he is. But Nathan Cleary’s numbers, despite missing a good chunk of the season shows he is top man.

A double up comparison of wingers really shows just how important the Panthers wingers are to their success. The Broncos have a little catching up to do in this area. 

Plus a battle of two key forward group. One between Patrick Carrigan and Isiah Yeo shows just how equally good they are. The other shows Payne Haas’ standing as best prop.

2023 NRL Grand Final Stats – 2023 Season Stats Comparison

There wasn’t much between these teams in 2023, with defense being one stand out – the Panthers were awesome again. They conceded 12 points or less on 15 occasions in 2023.

But the Broncos offer so much in other areas of the field, their attack was OK with just eight points the difference over the 2023 season and finals. The Broncos also lead the two teams for Line Breaks.

One issue with all the Broncos flair is the error rate, as shown below. Reece Walsh not only tops the errors for these two teams, but of all players this season.

The below visuals hopefully tell a story on the 2023 NRL Season and how it could affect the 2023 NRL Grand Final. They show an advantage to the Panthers.

2023 NRL Grand Final Stats – 2023 Final Series Stats Comparison

Here are the stats from both teams just from the 2023 NRL Finals Series so far. And it is pretty close between the top two sides from their two games.

Penrith have scored two more and conceded two less, but the Broncos have conceded zero points in three of their four halves in the finals series compared to Penrith’s two.

The Broncos have a solid 200+ metres advantage for Post Contact metres, but the Panthers have them covered for overall metres. Mainly due to their powerful back three.

Would you believe there is one Line Break and one Tackle Break difference between the sides, with the winner switched between the two?

Broncos have made more errors, which is inline with the season, as is Reece Walsh topping the count.

Panthers have made more tackles, but have the better efficiency.