Looking for a way to get into this weekend’s NRL action, but don’t have the time to examine the form guide, Facebook pages, Fox Sports website, or watch the Channel Nein Sports news to help with your selections? Of course you can always try the excellent NRL Tipping Club and you should. But if none of those options work for you The Gurgler website is here and nothing if not helpful, so to help the keen NRL punter we offer up our NRL Finals Week 1 Bets Analysis with Best Bets.
We’ve done the math and the homework of all our stats and offer up just our favourite suggested bet in each game. Then roll them up in a mega multi at the end.
NRL Finals Week 1 Bets & Advice
Here is our one betting special for every game this weekend.
Odds courtesy of Sportsbet and correct at time of use.
FRIDAY 7:50PM – SOUTH SYDNEY v NEWCASTLE @ Allianz Stadium
Best Bet: South Sydney to win @ $1.42
This match is pretty even if you consider 2026 form, with both sides capable of a great run and the occasional stinker. So it comes down to the home v away finals stats that has seen our best bets open up with a Rabbitohs win this weekend. South Sydney are W8 L1 for home finals matches since 1998, and Newcastle are W2 L13 for away finals matches. That’s a pretty big gulf in stats to get over, and not sure if the bye is a good or bad thing for the Knights.
SATURDAY 4:05PM – WARRIORS v DOLPHINS @ Mt Smart Stadium
Best Bet: Tribet 8.5 – Either team to win by 8 points or less @ $2.25
This should be exciting, tense and close. The last six games between these sides has ended up being decided by two or four points only, no matter the winner or location. Talking about winner and location, there have been eight games between these sides since the Dolphins’ arrival in the NRL and no team has won two in a row. And given either team has a reason for nerves, and both showed signs last weekend, we’ll presume it will be tense and close.
SATURDAY 7:50PM – CRONULLA v NORTH QUEENSLAND @ Allianz Stadium
Best Bet: Cronulla to win @ $1.45
The Sharks are hardly in the form that warrants a $1.45 favourite price, nor our best bet, but the Cowboys are hardly in form either, and have now conceded 50 points or more twice in the last six rounds. Both sides recent finals records are great either. The total points under 48.5 is tempting given the last four games between these sides has ended up with a points total of 48 points or less. It is the Sharks superior H2H record over the Cowboys that leans our best bet to a Cronulla win. Cronulla have won 14 of their last 17 v North Queensland and Cronulla have won eight of their last nine home games v North Queensland, plus have won 10 of the last 12 games in NSW v North Qld.
SUNDAY 4:05PM – PENRITH v ROOSTERS
Best Bet: Penrith to win 13+ @ $2.12
Penrith’s stats for a Sunday and finals in recent seasons is just too good. Penrith have won 17 of their last 18 Sunday games. Penrith have won 17 of their last 18 Sunday home games and the last nine in a row. Penrith haven’t lost a Sunday game to a Sydney side since Covid – 21 wins in a row. Penrith have won all eight games at CommBank Stadium on a Sunday v Sydney teams. All this and the Panthers have a pretty handy H2H record against the Roosters, although that record has improved with a win to the Roosters earlier this season. The Roosters may regret their mass resting last weekend, especially given they have a new halves combination to feature. Or it could be a touch of genius. They’ll have to overcome a mountain of stats to do so.
NRL Finals Week 1 Bets Mega Multi
Add all the specials together for turning $1 into plenty. But gamble responsibly, by betting within your limits and ignoring our tips all together.
$1 for $9.80
All odds correct from Sportsbet as of Tuesday 8th September, but don’t rely on us to do your job for you. Prices are just a guide and we hold no responsibility for different odds, you ignoring our tips, and you blaming our tips for not winning.
NRL Finals Week 1Â Helpful Betting Stats
FIRST & LAST TRY SCORER
HALF PERFORMANCE
POINTS
FINALS RECORD
