The 2026 NRL Finals are here, and they are all big games from point on, with a dynasty reignited, or an entire country in euphoria, or a finals newbie going all the way, and so many other good stories waiting to be told. So the excitement levels are somewhere between spontaneous flash mob and prime Darrel Eastlake. Talking about excitement, our NRL Finals Week 1 Tips, Predictions & Stats has so many stats and barely interesting facts you’ll struggle to keep calm this week.
Each week this season we will offer up a quick preview glance for each match, throw in a bunch of barely interesting stats, and mix in a pinch of opinion, plus throw in our weekly predictions like chicken salt on hot chips and you have something that seagulls and humans will fight over.
NRL Finals Week 1 Tips
Here are our tips for the week ahead. How did we get to here? By going through all the visuals and stats below.
SOUTH SYDNEY by 8
WARRIORS by 2
CRONULLA by 12
PENRITH by 16
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Related
NRLÂ Finals Week 1Â Ratings
We take all the H2H Stats, 2026 Form, each team’s records on certain days, grounds and more and mash the numbers together to come up with a H2H Ratings for each game. It’s a quick and easy way of blaming someone else for incorrect tips. This week’s offering is below.
NRL Finals Week 1 Tips Game by Game Stats
Looking for a cheat sheet for the weekend’s upcoming games? Here’s as much information that we could cram into one size fits all visual. How about a bunch of barely interesting stats? All you need and want is below.
STATS
SOU+ > South Sydney have won the only final match between these sides, 46-20 in 2020.
SOU+ > South Sydney are W8 L1 for home finals matches.
SOU+ > Going back to 2025, Souths have are W6 L1 for home games on a Friday.
SOU+ > South Sydney have won their last three at Allianz Stadium as the home side.
SOU+ > Souths are W4 L1 for finals games on a Friday as the home side.
SOU+ > Souths record for finals at Allianz Stadium is W3 L2 but have won their last two finals games there.
SOU- > Souths record at Allianz Stadium on a Friday is a dismal W3 L18.
SOU? > South Sydney have won their last three Friday games but only one of the seven before that.
NEW+ > Newcastle have won their only Friday finals game – a home win in 2006.
NEW+ > Souths won their most recent clash with Newcastle, but the Knights won four in a row before that.
NEW+ > Newcastle lead the H2H at Allianz Stadium 2-1, with the last game played at the ground between these teams in 2004.
NEW+ > Newcastle have lost their last two games at Allianz Stadium on a Friday but won the previous four before that for a record of W4 L2.
NEW- > Newcastle are W2 L13 for away finals matches.
NEW- > Newcastle have won just one of their last nine Friday games.
NEW- > Newcastle’s record at Allianz Stadium for finals is W1 L6, and their only win was as the home side, so it’s 0-6 as the away side.
NEW- > Newcastle have lost eight in a row at Allianz Stadium and won just two of their last 17 at the ground.
FINAL WORD: Souths have found form at the right time of the year, enough to sneak over Newcastle for the right to host this game. Both teams are capable of scoring, Souths a little more suspect in defence. The home v away finals games stats above is enough to tip the way of a Rabbitohs win.
STATS
WAHS/DOL??? > There has not been a consecutive winner of this fixture since the first match in 2023.
WAHS/DOL??? > The last six games between these sides have been decided by either two or four points.Â
WAHS+ > Warriors lead the H2H v Dolphins 3-1 for games in New Zealand.
WAHS+ > Warriors have won eight of their last nine home games.
WAHS+ > Warriors are W7 L2 at Mt Smart Stadium in 2026, and have won their last four games there.
WAHS+ > Warriors have won seven of their last eight v Qld sides.
WAHS+ > Warriors have won 5 of their last 6 on a Saturday at Mt Smart Stadium v Qld teams.
WAHS+ > Warriors are unbeaten in 6 games and haven’t lost since August.
WAHS- > Warriors have won only one of their last 6 finals games on a Saturday.
WAHS- > Warriors have lost four of their last five finals matches.
WAHS? > Warriors are W3 L2 for finals matches at Mt Smart Stadium.
DOL+ > Dolphins are unbeaten in 7 games and haven’t lost since July.
DOL+ > Dolphins have won four away games in a row and eight of their last nine away games.
DOL+ > Dolphins are W6 L3 for games outside of Qld this season.
DOL+ > Dolphins have won their last three away games on a Saturday with their last loss being against the Warriors in New Zealand.
FINAL WORD: Should be the game of the round with both teams in fantastic form statistically. It is likely to be tight given the last six games have been decided by two or four points. No finals form for the Dolphins, but the pressure may be less than the Warriors as they will have a full house to try not to disappoint.
STATS
CRO/NQL??? > Finals H2H between these sides is 3-3.
CRO+ > Cronulla have won 14 of their last 17 v North Queensland.
CRO+ > Cronulla have won eight of their last nine home games v North Queensland.
CRO+ > Cronulla are W3 L1 for finals games v North Queensland at the Sydney Football Stadium.
CRO+ > Cronulla are W5 L4 for finals games v Qld teams.
CRO+ > Cronulla have won their last three games v Qld teams.
CRO? > Cronulla are W19 L21 at Allian Stadium since 1998.
CRO- > Cronulla are W4 L6 on a Saturday this season.
CRO- > Cronulla have won their last two finals games on a Saturday, but lost eight in a row before that.
NQL+ > North Queensland are W2 L1 for finals games v Cronulla on a Saturday.
NQL+ > North Queensland have won their last four Saturday finals matches and their last three away on a Saturday. All three of those wins were against Sydney teams.
NQL+ > North Qld are W4 L2 away in Sydney this season.
NQL- > North Queensland are W8 L11 for finals games v Sydney teams.
NQL- > North Queensland are W9 L17 at Allian Stadium since 1998.
NQL? > North Qld are W2 L2 away from home on a Saturday this season.
FINAL WORD: Is Cronulla’s outstanding record over the Cowboys enough to beat the recent form of one win in their last five games? Well, North Queensland’s form isn’t much better, they conceded 50 points for a second time in five matches, but at least it wasn’t 82 last weekend. The Cowboys are almost impossible to pick week to week, so going with the H2H record.
STATS
PEN/ROO?> These teams haven’t met on a Sunday since 2019. Penrith won that match.
PEN+ > The H2H between these sides is 2-2 for the last four games. Prior to that Penrith had won 11 in a row.
PEN+ > Penrith are W4 L1 v Roosters in finals.
PEN+ > Penrith have won eight finals games in a row v Sydney teams.
PEN+ > Penrith have won all six finals games v Sydney teams on a Sunday since 1998.
PEN+ > Penrith are W10 L2 on a Sunday for finals games.
PEN+ > Penrith have won 17 of their last 18 Sunday games.
PEN+ > Penrith have won 17 of their last 18 Sunday home games and the last nine in a row.
PEN+ > Penrith haven’t lost a Sunday game to a Sydney side since Covid – 21 wins in a row.
PEN+ > Penrith have won all eight games at CommBank Stadium on a Sunday v Sydney teams.
ROO- > Roosters have lost their last two Sunday finals games and are W8 L6 overall.
ROO- > Roosters are W1 L4 on a Sunday for finals games v Sydney teams.
ROO- > Roosters have won just two of their last seven finals matches v Sydney teams on any day.
ROO- > Roosters have won both of the games played between these sides at CommBank Stadium.
ROO- > Roosters Sunday form is less convincing with a 50% win rate going back the last five seasons. It’s also 50% for Sunday games v Sydney teams.
FINAL WORD: Aside from being the most dominant team since 2020 in general, and in finals matches, having the game on a Sunday gives Penrith a huge stats advantage. Some of those stats are incredible. Roosters have at least stopped the rot against Penrith, but there’s nothing much statistically or recent form-wise going for them.
NRL Finals Week 1 General Stats
EACH TEAM’S FINALS FORM SINCE 1998
EACH TEAM’S 2026 RECORD V OTHER FINALS TEAMS
EACH TEAM’S 2026 RECORD TRENDS
2026 Season Stats so far……up to Round 27
Your one-stop shop for stats and stuff from 2026 so far.
LADDER AND FORM
Current ladder and latest form with a 2026 progress chart.
RESULTS
All the form of Home v Away, Top v Bottom sides and Happy v Sad Days.
POINTS
Lots of points of interest.
HALVES
A tale of two halves and all the stats we can find relating to them.
TRIES – ALL, FIRST AND LAST
Overall try scoring stats with a focus on first and last try scorer in case folk like a wager.
