Up to Round 25 of the NRL and just three rounds to go before the finals and still so much to play for – Minor Premiership, Finals berths, and not even last is sorted yet. So with so many important games, and the occasional who-cares fixture, our NRL Round 25 Tips Predictions & Stats is a handy how-to guide for picking the winner in your local tipping competition.
Each week this season we will offer up a quick preview glance for each match, throw in a bunch of barely interesting stats, and mix in a pinch of opinion, plus throw in our weekly predictions like chicken salt on hot chips and you have something that seagulls and humans will fight over.
NRL Round 25 Tips
Here are our tips for the week ahead. How did we get to here? By going through all the visuals and stats below.
MELBOURNE by 4
CANBERRA by 6
DOLPHINS by 16
NEWCASTLE by 20
SOUTH SYDNEY by 2
BULLDOGS by 8
CRONULLA by 6
ROOSTERS by 22
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Related
NRL Round 25 Tips Weekly H2H Summary Cheat Sheets
Looking for a cheat sheet for the weekend’s upcoming games? Here’s as much information that we could cram into one size fits all visual.
NRL Round 25 Ratings
We take all the H2H Stats, 2026 Form, each team’s records on certain days, grounds and more and mash the numbers together to come up with a H2H Ratings for each game. This week’s offering is below.
NRL Round 25 Tips – Weekly Barely Interesting Stats
Our famed barely interesting stats all in the one place for your convenience and arguments. We’ve added a plus or minus with the team in question to hint whether it’s a good or bad stat too, with the bolded stats our favourite.
THURSDAY 8PM – MELBOURNE v PENRITH
MEL+ > Melbourne have never been beaten at home on a Thursday – 21 games without loss.
MEL+ > Melbourne have a points differential of +310 across those 21 games.
MEL+ > Melbourne have won five of their last six games at AAMI Park this season, the last one was a loss to the Bulldogs though.
MEL+ > Melbourne have won nine of ten games played between the sides at AAMI Park.
MEL- > Melbourne are struggling against top half (33% win rate) and Sydney teams (46%) this season.
PEN- > Penrith have won just two of their last 11 Thursday games.
PEN- > Penrith have won just one of their last six Thursday away games, but did win the most recent one.
PEN- > Penrith have lost their last three away games to non Sydney sides.
PEN? > Penrith would be seventh if the table was based on results from July. Canberra would be third. Melbourne would be ninth.
Assessment: Never being beaten at home on a Thursday vs Penrith’s poor 2/11 on a Thursday gives the Storm a big chance against Penrith.
FRIDAY 6PM – CANBERRA v BRISBANE
CAN+ > Canberra have won 10 of their past 11 home games in Canberra in the Winter months.
CAN+ > Canberra’s home win rate goes from 58.6% overall to 63.5% in the Winter months.
CAN+ > Canberra are W13 L4 in Canberra on a Friday.
CAN- > Canberra have won only three of their last nine v Qld sides and one of the last four in Canberra.
CAN? > Canberra lead the H2H at Canberra v Brisbane by 13-11 since 1998. On a Friday it’s 1-1.
CAN? > Canberra lead the H2H at Canberra v Brisbane in Canberra in Winter by 7-5 in case anyone is interested.
BRI+ > Brisbane have won three of the last four v Canberra. Two of those games in Canberra.
BRI+ > Brisbane’s Friday record is comparatively good at W3 L3, and they have won their only Friday away game.
BRI- > Brisbane have won only one of their last 13 games.
BRI- > Brisbane have won only one of their last 7 away games.
BRI- > Brisbane have won just one of their last 10 games v non Qld sides.
Assessment: the only thing colder than Canberra in Winter is the Broncos recent form. Although the Broncos’ recent record in Canberra gives them a sniff. But if they can’t fire up like previous weeks it will likely end up a sniffle instead. Canberra’s Friday and Winter home record should get them across the line.
FRIDAY 8PM – DOLPHINS v PARRAMATTA @ Suncorp Stadium
DOL+ > Dolphins have won 12 of their last 13 games, which is the exact opposite of last 13 form of their cross-town rivals.
DOL+ > Dolphins have won seven in a row at Suncorp Stadium.
DOL+ > Dolphins have won five in a row on a Friday.
DOL+ > Dolphins have won three in a row on a Friday at Suncorp Stadium, and conceded 10 points in all three.
DOL? > This is the first meeting between the Dolphins and Parramatta at Suncorp Stadium.
PAR+ > Parramatta have won their last three games away to Qld sides and five of the seven away games to Qld sides since 2021.
PAR+ > Parramatta have won their last four away games on a Friday v all teams.
Assessment: The finals-bound Dolphins are the form team, with many things going their way, but Parramatta have a sneaky good record away on a Friday and to Qld teams, so a blue and yellow coloured banana skin awaits.
SATURDAY 3PM – NEWCASTLE v MANLY
NEW+ > Newcastle have won six of their last seven at home. Although they have won just one of their last five home games on a Saturday.
NEW+ > Newcastle have the best record v bottom half teams (based on ladder position at time of match not current ladder) with a W10 L1 strike rate.
NEW+ > Newcastle have won seven straight at home to bottom half sides.
NEW+ > Newcastle have won four Saturday games in a row.
MAN+ > Manly are at least W4 L3 on a Saturday this season.
MAN- > Manly have now lost six in a row.
MAN- > Manly have lost five in a row away from home.
MAN- > Manly are one of two teams to lose all their games when trailing at half time (6). St George Illawarra (13) is the other team.
Assessment: Newcastle’s good home form and Manly’s poor form away and everywhere else should see a comfortable Newcastle win.
SATURDAY 5:30PM – SOUTH SYDNEY v WARRIORS @ Accor Stadium
SOU+ > Souths have won their last seven games at the Olympic Stadium.
SOU+ > Souths have won nine of their last 11 on a Saturday v Warriors.
SOU+ > Souths have lost their last four games at the Olympic Stadium to non-Sydney sides on a Saturday. But have won their last three there v non-Sydney sides on any day.
SOU+ > South Sydney are 4/4 this season for home games v top eight sides (at time of match).
SOU? > Souths have lost their last two v Warriors, but prior to that had won 15 of 16 games.
WAHS+ > Warriors have won five of their past six games.
WAHS+ > Warriors have won their last two away games 40-6 and 42-6.
WAHS+ > Warriors have won seven of their last nine away games on a Saturday.
WAHS? > Warriors are W3 L3 away to Sydney clubs this season.
Assessment: A genuine coin toss with South Sydney’s great home form, but the Warriors are ok away and in slightly better form overall.
SATURDAY 7:30PM – ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA v BULLDOGS @ Allianz Stadium
STI+ > Dragons have won their last Saturday home game.
STI+ > Dragons have won two in a row and are looking for their first run of three straight wins since 2023.
STI+ > Dragons have won three in a row v Sydney teams. Two vs Wests Tigers.
STI- > Dragons have lost six games in a row at the Sydney Football Stadium.
BUL+ > Bulldogs have won six in a row v Dragons.
BUL+ > Bulldogs have won three away games in a row v Dragons and 11 of the last 14.
BUL+ > Bulldogs have won both games v Dragons at the Sydney Football Stadium and scored exactly 28 points in both games.|
BUL+ > Bulldogs have won nine of the last ten games v Dragons on a Saturday and it’s W5 L1 overall away on a Saturday v Dragons.
Assessment: Bulldogs have the H2H stats covered, and the better record overall. But the Dragons have turned the corner, but it helps to play the Wests Tigers twice in a short space of time.
SUNDAY 2PM – GOLD COAST v CRONULLA
GCT+ > Gold Coast have won two of their last three home games on a Sunday.
GCT+ > Gold Coast have won four of their past five home games v Sydney clubs.
GCT+ > Gold Coast have won three of their past four games anywhere v Sydney clubs.
GCT- > Gold Coast have won only two of their last 14 games in August.
GCT? > The H2H v Cronulla is 1-1 on the Gold Coast on a Saturday.
CRO+ > Cronulla have won 12 of their past 13 games v Gold Coast, with the only loss in Coffs Harbour.
CRO+ > Cronulla have won four in a row and seven of the last eight on the Gold Coast v Titans.
CRO+ > Cronulla lead the Sunday H2H v Titans by 6-1.
CRO+ > Cronulla have won their last two visits to Qld, including a 66-6 drubbing of the Dolphins.
CRO- > Cronulla have won only three of their 14 away games on a Sunday to Qld sides.
Assessment: Both sides come into the game on mini losing runs, a regular feature for the Titans, but for the Sharks it sees them lose their grip on a top four place. Gold Coast have modest stats claims, while Cronulla have a belter H2H record v Titans.
SUNDAY 4PM – ROOSTERS v WESTS TIGERS
ROO+ > Roosters have won 18 of their last 20 games v Wests Tigers going back to 2012.
ROO+ > Overall the Roosters H2H v Tigers at the Sydney Football Stadium is W16 L4. It’s W7 L3 on a Sunday there.
ROO+ > Roosters have won seven in a row at the Sydney Football Stadium.
ROO+ > Roosters have won 20/26 v Sydney teams at the Football Stadium since it re-opened in 2022.
WTI+ > Wests Tigers have at least won the most recent game v Roosters and it was at this weekend’s venue and on a Sunday.
WTI- > Wests Tigers have lost eight in a row and last won in June.
WTI- > Wests Tigers have lost six in a row away.
Assessment: It’s easy to pick the Roosters and pick on the Tigers.
2026 Season Stats so far……up to Round 24
Your one-stop shop for stats and stuff from 2026 so far.
LADDER AND FORM
Current ladder and latest form with a 2026 progress chart.
RESULTS
All the form of Home v Away, Top v Bottom sides and Happy v Sad Days.
POINTS
Lots of points of interest.
HALVES
A tale of two halves and all the stats we can find relating to them.
TRIES – ALL, FIRST AND LAST
Overall try scoring stats with a focus on first and last try scorer in case folk like a wager.
