Looking for a way to get into this weekend’s NRL action, but don’t have the time to examine the form guide, Facebook pages, Fox Sports website, or watch the Channel Nein Sports news to help with your selections? Of course you can always try the excellent NRL Tipping Club and you should. But if none of those work for you The Gurgler website is here and nothing if not helpful, so to help the keen NRL punter we offer up our 2026 NRL Round 21 Bets Analysis with Best Bets.
We’ve done the math and the homework of all our stats and offer up just our favourite suggested bet in each game. Then roll them up in a mega multi at the end.
2026 NRL Round 21 Bets & Best Bets
Here is our one betting special for every game this weekend.
Odds courtesy of Sportsbet and correct at time of use.
THU 8PM – PARRAMATTA v PENRITH
Best Bet: Parramatta +14.5 Start @ $1.83
As pointed out in our Round 21 Preview, Penrith have a dodgy record on a Thursday losing eight of their last nine. So that gives the Eels a sniff. And although the recent H2H favours Penrith with the Panthers having won the last five games, would you believe that the last two times these sides met on a Thursday Parramatta were the victors. But Penrith aren’t first on the ladder and Parramatta aren’t third last on the ladder by accident, so it’s hard to tip a win for Parra over Penrith. But 14.5 points start might be enough.
FRI 6PM – NEWCASTLE v ROOSTERS
Best Bet: Roosters to win @ $1.63
It’s hard to tip against the Roosters based on H2H record. Roosters have won 19 of their last 22 games v Newcastle going back to 2012 and won five straight. It’s five in a row at Newcastle too, with a last home win for the Knights pre-dating Covid.
FRI 8PM – SOUTH SYDNEY v MELBOURNE
Best Bet: Total Points Under 46.5 @ $1.81
A few key players out for each side means there could be a little lacking in quality in this match, which means point scoring may not be great. Going back to 2018 for the last 16 matches between Souths and Melbourne, the average total match points is 44, so a few to play with for the Unders. That drops to 39 for games between these sides at the Olympic Stadium. It’s an average of 37 points on a Friday for this pair’s H2H. Same for Fridays at the Olympic Stadium.
SAT 3PM – CANBERRA v WESTS TIGERS
Best Bet: Canberra to win @ $1.23
There’s no reason to bet on anything else. The Tigers are in disarray and Raiders building nicely. Plus Canberra have a bunch of stats on their side. Since 2016, Canberra’s record v Wests Tigers is W14 L3, then they have won five in a row v Wests Tigers in Canberra, and the Raiders have lost only once to the Wests Tigers in Canberra on a Saturday.
SAT 5:30PM – BULLDOGS v WAHS
Best Bet: 2nd Half Handicap – Warriors -2.5 Pts @ $1.96
A hard game to pick so to chicken out we’re going with a second half bet. The Warriors are unbeaten in second halves this season in away games with a W7 D1 record. The Warriors second half record v bottom half teams is W8 D1 L1 too. So enough to get over the 2.5 start.
SAT 7:30PM – NORTH QUEENSLAND v BRISBANE
Best Bet: Total Match Points Over 48.5 @ $1.91
Maybe it’s wishful thinking wanting a lot of points out of the Cowboys-Broncos game, but there is some form. Plus the Broncos maybe on the turn for form and the Cowboys are capable of points when they feel like it. This game can produce points, with three of the last four seeing 60 points or more. It’s also three out of four for 60 points or more for games between these teams in Townsville.
SUN 2PM – ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA v GOLD COAST @ Kogarah
Best Bet: Total Match Points Under 46.5 @ $1.89
First of all both these sides are in the bottom two, so overall form isn’t great. Combining the total points of these sides from the 2026 NRL season, the average points per game comes to 34 points. The last three Dragons games at Kogarah have seen a points total under the 46.5 threshold, but it does get a bit hit and miss before that. The last 10 Gold Coast games have seen totals of points between 22 and 76, so not much confidence.
SUN 4PM – MANLY v CRONULLA
Best Bet: Cronulla to win @ $1.63
Manly have gone quietly about a three game run of losses and have won just two of their last seven, so are hard to trust for a win right now. Sharks meanwhile have won seven of their last eight, with a couple of bye in among those games for a rest. Cronulla have won seven of the last eight v Manly and worse still for the Sea Eagles is they have lost nine of their last 11 games on a Sunday v all teams.
2026 NRL Round 21 Bets Mega Multi
Add all the specials together for turning $1 into plenty. But gamble responsibly, by betting within your limits and ignoring our tips all together.
$1 for $75
All odds correct from Sportsbet as of Wednesday 22nd July
2026 NRL Round 21 Helpful Betting Stats
FIRST & LAST TRY SCORER
HALF PERFORMANCE
POINTS
