The FA Cup is arguably the best annual sporting competition in the world, and the third round is the greatest chapter of that story, so this weekend’s 3rd round fixtures are a real premium sporting event.
What makes it so exciting is the potential upsets and near misses that this stage of the competition are famed for. There is also the great vision of seeing some of sport’s big names playing out of a ground that holds less fans than their lowest paid players would earn in a week.
The mad punters with their huge multi/accumulator bets are furiously crossing their fingers or potential wins off as the afternoon/early morning unfolds. Cursing what looked a sure fire EPL win over a lower league sides that has now gone awry. Or, desperately hoping for no more goals, as one of their upsets is leading into injury time. It certainly is a time where following the 72 teams below the top division can pay dividends.
It’s also a time for the lower divisions to get their day in the sun, along with the welcomed extra prize money is the glory of a Cup run, and potentially giving lower league fans who usually have not a great deal to cheer for something to be happy about. Going past the third round also increases the chance of seeing your team on the TV for the rare occasion.
But despite some of the focus inevitably turning to the EPL ties only, it’s mainly about the upsets of the lower league teams over some of the bigger clubs that is the most intriguing, and offered below are some stats and thoughts on a few of the potential Cup Upsets or Cupsets if you will.
CUPSETS STATS
In past 5 Third Rounds of the FA Cup there have been 31 wins for sides over a team in a higher division. Some of the more interesting bits are below:
- More than half of those upsets come at the expense of a Championship side. This even includes 3 exits at the hands of Non League teams in the past five editions.
- The biggest category for upset is League One (3rd) beating Championship (2nd) with 2 a year on average.
- League One teams are the kings of the upset with just under half of the surprise results coming for the third tier sides.
- On average two EPL sides are knocked out at this stage by lower league clubs.
- Four Non League teams have beaten higher opposition in the past 5 seasons. There is only one team left that can achieve that, and it looks a real chance.
POTENTIAL CUPSETS
Here is the list of the some of the games in which a surprise result may not be totally surprising. Claiming no professional expertise and maybe none of them will end up as an upset, but this is a time of year where paying attention to the Football League can pay off. The odds are not necessarily for gambling purposes but displayed for a guide for expectations of result.
WYCOMBE WANDERERS v ASTON VILLA Aston Villa are lucky they didn’t draw anyone higher than 6th placed League Two side Wycombe Wanderers, as given their current form in the EPL they may not have been favourites against anyone in the second or third tiers. Wycombe, aka The Chairboys, have some Cup pedigree having made the Semi Finals of the FA Cup in 2000-01 and League Cup in 2006-07 from the lower divisions. Aston Villa look unlikely to beat anyone, and confidence is low after losing the relegation six pointer on Saturday so the chance of an upset is high.
Wycombe $3.50 Draw $3.30 Aston Villa $2.10
EASTLEIGH v BOLTON WANDERERS Bolton, who are dead last in the Championship, are going very much the same way on field as Aston Villa in the division above, although Bolton did recently end a 17 game winless streak. But there’s more than on field worries for the Trotters with players not being paid, huge club debts, an owner who wants out and issues relating to the Manager. Bolton have yet to win away this year (just 3 draws from 12 games), and Eastleigh are fourth in the National League Premier and unbeaten in their last five.
Eastleigh $3.40 Draw $3.50 Bolton $2.05
MANCHESTER UNITED v SHEFFIELD UNITED With plenty of off field distractions and some mediocre on field performances Manchester United won’t want to take this game lightly as Sheffield United are Cup specialists, their most recent adventure took them to a Semi Final of the League Cup last year. With the Blades being the underdog for a change after being the target team of League One since their relegation, the extra freedom may allow them to thrive on one of Football’s biggest stages and add more pressure on the Manchester United manager. Although an upset is a little unlikely here.
Manchester United $1.30 Draw $5.00 Sheffield United $11.00
NORTHAMPTON TOWN v MILTON KEYNES With Championship relegation on the mind of Milton Keynes (20th and two points from the relegation zone), the second placed side from League Two Northampton Town may take full advantage of their home ground draw where they have won 7 of their last 8. Milton Keynes did win their first away game this season, but have yet to win another since.
Northampton $2.80 Draw $3.30 Milton Keynes $2.40
PETERBOROUGH v PRESTON Probably the pick of the potential League One v Championship upsets with home ground advantage and Peterborough finding form in League One. Good chance of goals too with an average of 3.6 goals per Peterborough game this season and have scored the most goals in the Football League with 52 in 25 games. Preston are 15th in the Championship and their away games have seen a total of just 22 goals in 12 games.
Peterborough $2.63 Draw $3.25 Preston $2.63
IPSWICH TOWN v PORTSMOUTH As much as it pains an Ipswich Town fan to say, we have a very ordinary record in the FA Cup of late, and also have been knocked out by lower league opposition in the League Cup early rounds with regularity in recent seasons. 2008 FA Cup winners Portsmouth are going well in League Two and have lost just once away this season. 1978 Cup winners Ipswich have just 2 home wins in their last 10 games. A draw looks a real possibility.
Ipswich $1.70 Draw $3.60 Portsmouth $5.00
OXFORD UNITED v SWANSEA CITY Another struggling EPL side against a League Two side. The difference to the Aston Villa v Wycombe game is that Swansea are going slightly better than Villa, but only just. Oxford, too are going slightly better than Wycombe and sit third in the fourth tier. They have lost just once at home this season too. Swansea have won just once on the road so far this season. With Swansea yet to name a permanent replacement for Garry Monk the ingredients are there for an upset.
Oxford $4.33 Draw $3.50 Swansea $1.80
Top 5 CUPSETS MULTI STRAIGHT OUT
WYCOMBE, OXFORD, PETERBOROUGH, NORTHAMPTON, EASTLEIGH
$1 for $284
MULTI DRAW or WIN – Draw or Upset win for outsiders
All of the seven listed above.
$1 for $61
ALL EPL MULTI – just the EPL teams
DRAW – Southampton v Crystal Palace
WATFORD to beat Newcastle
ARSENAL to beat Sunderland
MANCHESTER CITY to beat Norwich
$1 for $21
HOME COMFORTS MULTI
BIRMINGHAM to beat Bournemouth
WBA to beat Bristol City
LEEDS to beat Rotherham
EVERTON to beat Dagenham & Redbridge
MIDDLESBROUGH to beat Burnley
CHELSEA to beat Scunthorpe
WEST HAM to beat Wolves
HULL to beat Brighton
$1 for $134
AWAY PAYS MULTI
LIVERPOOL to beat Exeter
STOKE to beat Doncaster
BRADFORD to beat Bury
DERBY to beat Hartlepool
READING to beat Huddersfield
$1 for $26
THE CHICKENED OUT CUPSETS MULTI
WALSALL or DRAW v Brentford
NEWPORT or DRAW v Blackburn
SHREWSBURY or DRAW v Cardiff
$1 for $7
THE NO IDEA WHY NOT PICK A DRAW MULTI
YEOVIL or DRAW v Carlisle
DRAW – COLCHESTER v CHARLTON
DRAW – SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY v FULHAM
$1 for $20
Here’s the 3rd Fixture List in Full for you to make your own mind up about. Divisions in brackets. There’s plenty of good match ups that feature teams in the same division. And good news that at least one League One and League Two will make it through to the fourth round, where the upsets can start all over again. Perhaps.
| Watford | 1) | v | Newcastle United | 1) |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 1) | v | Leicester City | 1) |
| Arsenal | 1) | v | Sunderland | 1) |
| Southampton | 1) | v | Crystal Palace | 1) |
| Norwich City | 1) | v | Manchester City | 1) |
| Sheffield Wednesday | 2) | v | Fulham | 2) |
| Nottingham Forest | 2) | v | Queens Park Rangers | 2) |
| Leeds United | 2) | v | Rotherham United | 2) |
| Huddersfield Town | 2) | v | Reading | 2) |
| Middlesbrough | 2) | v | Burnley | 2) |
| Hull City | 2) | v | Brighton & Hove Albion | 2) |
| Bury | 3) | v | Bradford City | 3) |
| Carlisle United | 4) | v | Yeovil Town | 4) |
| West Bromwich Albion | 1) | v | Bristol City | 2) |
| West Ham United | 1) | v | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2) |
| Manchester United | 1) | v | Sheffield United | 3) |
| Chelsea | 1) | v | Scunthorpe United | 3) |
| Everton | 1) | v | Dagenham & Redbridge | 4) |
| Birmingham City | 2) | v | AFC Bournemouth | 1) |
| Doncaster Rovers | 3) | v | Stoke City | 1) |
| Exeter City | 4) | v | Liverpool | 1) |
| Wycombe Wanderers | 4) | v | Aston Villa | 1) |
| Oxford United | 4) | v | Swansea City | 1) |
| Brentford | 2) | v | Walsall | 3) |
| Cardiff City | 2) | v | Shrewsbury Town | 3) |
| Ipswich Town | 2) | v | Portsmouth | 4) |
| Colchester United | 3) | v | Charlton Athletic | 2) |
| Peterborough United | 3) | v | Preston North End | 2) |
| Hartlepool United | 4) | v | Derby County | 2) |
| Northampton Town | 4) | v | Milton Keynes Dons | 2) |
| Newport County | 4) | v | Blackburn Rovers | 2) |
| Eastleigh | 5) | v | Bolton Wanderers | 2) |
