One of the most surprising elections in recent or distant times is almost over, although the official results and grabs for power will drag on into weeks, we think it’s time to sit back and look at what we’ve learned from the big countdown.
ALL YOU NEED IS HATE
This election proved more than the last Queensland election, that you don’t necessarily need a wheelbarrow full of policies, costings or even a leader who anyone expects to win an election, all you need is an opponent who the large majority of the state/electorates hates with a passion.
Caught on the hop by a carefully planned election date, ALP came across as not having the greatest amount of ideas of how to improve things, but as the results proved, they had one key thing to improve Qld, they had no Campbell Newman. A fair chunk of Queenslanders will have wondered which was worse, uncertainty about how bad Mr Newman could get, or how bad the ALP could be. It seems they’d rather gamble on the devil they don’t know.
Whether or not his achievements were notable or not, the perceived arrogance was, and the late campaign altercation and suing of Alan Jones didn’t help the idea that Campbell Newman was some kind of dictator who didn’t listen and crushed opposition.
The implications federally were immediate with speculation starting on the night about the safety of Abbott as leader. Given that Abbott has managed to achieve most of the hatred Newman worked on for 3 years in half that time, especially with his captain’s pick of knighthood, the writing is on the wall for a similar result in Canberra down the track.
ASSET SALES LEASING SHIP HAS SAILED
Aside from whether a leader is liked or not, the big issue over the last two elections is clear, Queensland doesn’t want it’s stuff sold.
Whether or not that is the right economic decision, you can’t argue with the figures from two elections in which both sides campaigned for and against sales and leasing. In 2012 the overall swing against ALP was 15.6% and 44 seats, and last weekend the overall swing was 8.2% against the LNP and a loss of 30 odd seats when counted finalises. You could argue that the margin decreased since the last election, but it would be a brave party to try it again this decade, given that government with a 60+ majority couldn’t get it over the line. That is despite the carefully crafted ads saying Queenslanders were for it.
ELECTION NIGHT COVERAGE?
A funny moment from the coverage when the usual calm and collected Antony Green looked a little flustered and his ever reliable computer with all the stats couldn’t cope with the strange nature of the Qld Election. One could imagine a robot with its head spinning round and round as steam blew out at one stage.
As you’d expect it was a minor blip as he delivered swings and results like no other in the game. Staying with the ABC, and most amusing was the reaction of the experts Wayne Swan and Tim Nicholls in the early hours. As Mr Nicholls became more and more worried, which eventually saw him leave mid coverage to presumably grab a bucket to bail water out of the sinking ship, Wayne Swan became smugger and smugger as the realisation arose that the ALP had not only caused nuisance value, but could quite possibly win. He must have been only 2 winning seats away from donning a dressing gown with slippers, lighting a cigar and putting his feet up on the bench.
Onto the other channels, and Sky provided good insights and the usual suspects were there. Richo, or Former ALP powerbroker Richo as we prefer, was quality throughout. Once again that Liberal guy who no one can ever remember is name was there and looked increasing miserable as the night wore on (Michael Kroger – we found out is his name, and thankfully is also described as a Power Broker for Liberals).
Channel 7 and 9 are usually best avoided and were by us on the night. The only point of interest was who was Channel 7’s game changing guest. Kate Jones was the answer in an anti-climax, and despite her relevance and a little bit of interest for the punter, we prefer our selections on what could have been.
One complaint was score updates for the Asian Cup during the broadcast. Some of us election nerds may have been recording the game, so thanks for ruining that. Surprisingly it was both of the channels that were broadcasting it ABC and Sky.
INFORMAL FORMALITIES
Always interesting is the informal voting across the election. State-wide the informal vote was 2.21% which was up on the previous three elections of 2.20%, 1.98%, 2.12%.
Also interesting is the break up, in which Ashgrove had the fewest informal votes, and the Logan-Gold Coast corridor made up 11 of the 13 seats with the highest percentage. Here’s the top 5 worst and best below.
Seat | % Informal |
Woodridge | 3.64 |
Gaven | 3.27 |
Logan | 3.25 |
Waterford | 3.23 |
Mermaid Beach | 3 |
Seat | % Informal |
Ashgrove | 1 |
Mount Coot-tha | 1.17 |
Indooroopilly | 1.34 |
Bulimba | 1.5 |
Moggill | 1.51 |
LYNE BALL WINNERS
And so to the results from our experts…well we can’t confirm that just yet with most of the seats in doubt featuring in our tips. A special mention to one of our readers who tipped Maryborough for the ALP at a huge $15. If that is confirmed, game over for everyone else.
Whoever ends on top gets our Lyne Ball Election Day Gift Pack featuring how to vote cards from the Inala and Algester polling booths, an Electoral Commission envelope, a copy of our Campbell Newman Sat Nav, our Sir Joh’s Gerry Mander board game, and another gift of your choice from our Gurgler Shop. Take a wander through here.
BRIEFLY….
Pork Barrelling was a welcomed return as an election buzzword with accusations against Campbell Newman filling Ashgrove’s boots. Coincidental that some northside Brisbane electorates had the biggest swings away from the LNP?
With Pauline Hanson likely to miss out in Lockyer it at least saves her and us from her having a deciding say on matters.
Who doesn’t love a hung parliament.
Campbell Newman’s demise leaves Tony Abbott, Michael Clarke and Sepp Blatter as the most unpopular leaders in Australia.