NRL | 2025 NRL Finals Week 1 Ratings and Late Mail

Been too distracted by how many players aren’t playing this weekend? Do you need some last-minute NRL tipping advice? Or simply want something else to blame when the tips go wrong? Either way, saddle up for The Gurgler’s NRL Finals Week 1 Ratings and Late Mail.

In a new additional to our stable of NRL stats and tipping products, we have used all the stats we have, smashed them against each other like atoms, and come up with a H2H rating.

It includes this year’s form with a bias because it is this year, but we don’t forget historic stats of the H2H against this week’s opponents, and the ground and day the teams are playing on, plus their record v top and lower half teams.

Then slice up the scores out of 100% between the two sides. The bigger the percentage, the more likely to win.

2025 NRL Finals Week 1 Ratings

Here are the H2H ratings and winners for the second last weekend of the regular season.

2025 NRL Finals Week 1 Late Mail

FRIDAY 7:50PM – MELBOURNE v BULLDOGS – AAMI PARK

FINALS RECORD: BULLDOGS 3 MELBOURNE 2

LAST FINALS MATCH: 2014 – MELBOURNE 4 BULLDOGS 28 (AAMI PARK)

Melbourne aren’t going as well as they usually would this time of year, with two losses in the last two weeks showing them up poorly. But they do have stats on their side.

Melbourne have won 14 of their last 16 homes games on a Friday. The two losses were against the Roosters. Melbourne have won nine of their last 10 v Bulldogs. Melbourne are W6 L1 v Bulldogs on a Friday and won both Friday games at AAMI Park. Bulldogs have lost their last three Friday games.

As for finals Melbourne have won all six home finals at AAMI Park on a Friday. 

But the Bulldogs lead the H2H in finals v Storm, and the Storm’s finals record overall at AMMI Park is almost underwhelming. Melbourne’s finals record at AAMI Park on any day is W13 L6, with only one of those losses coming against a Sydney team – Bulldogs.

Bulldogs fans probably wish their team had followed others with mass resting, especially since they lost last week’s game anyway. Marcelo Montoya and Bronson Xerri are out this week. Jacob Kiraz is named and the mail is he will play. The halves remain unchanged giving everyone more room to blame Lachlan Galvin for everything, but Toby Sexton is set to push Red Mahoney out of the side all together.  Sexton could play halfback, Galvin for five eighth and Burton into the centres. Maybe. Who knows.

More injury misery for the Storm with Jahrome Hughes and Ryan Papenhuyzen out, and Nelson Asofa-Solomona earned himself a ban. At least Harry Grant returns and Jack Howarth is in the reserves and may play.

SATURDAY 4:05PM – WARRIORS v PENRITH – MT SMART STADIUM

FINALS RECORD: PENRITH 3 WARRIORS 0

LAST FINALS MATCH: 2023 – PENRITH 32 WARRIORS 6 (PENRITH STADIUM)

Great to have the Warriors in the finals and a finals game in New Zealand for the game of rugby league, and to annoy Channel Nein who usually avoid the place.

The concerns here are the Warriors recent home form, and playing the most successful finals team of the modern era. Sorry Craig Bellamy, please don’t hit us.

To Mt Smart, and the Warriors have won only two of their last seven home games this season. Plus Penrith have won their last two visits to Mt Smart Stadium and overall it’s Penrith have won nine of the last ten games v Warriors.

As for finals, the Warriors have lost all three finals clashes v Penrith and have won just one of their last six finals games. But some silver linings coming…..The Warriors have won their last two finals games at Mt Smart Stadium with an overall record there of W3 L1 and Penrith’s finals record away at non-Sydney venues is W3 L4. But they have won their last three.

However Penrith have won 12 finals games in a row with a last loss in 2021, so that sorts that then.

Team news sees key players Brian To’o and Liam Martin return and Penrith hooker Mitch Kenny out and replaced by Luke Sommerton. The return of To’o sees Paul Alamoti keep his spot over Tom Jenkins. Warriors centre Rocco Berry is out so Kurt Capewell fills in again and anytime try scoring friend Leka Halasima. Plus work horses Wayde Egan and prop Jackson Ford return.

SATURDAY 7:50PM – SHARKS v ROOSTERS – SHARK PARK

FINALS RECORD: ROOSTERS 3 CRONULLA 0

LAST FINALS MATCH: 2023 – SHARKS 12 ROOSTERS 13 (SHARK PARK)

A game where you’d be tempted to go with an under-the-radar Sharks, they are the form team of the competition since Origin finished with an 88% win rate. But their record against the Roosters isn’t great, and finals record less appealing. 

Cronulla have won just one of their last eight finals games, including losing their last two finals games at Shark Park in 2022 and 2023. They have also lost eight Saturday finals games in a row. Last time they won a Saturday finals game was in 2016. And lost all three finals games v Roosters since 1998.

But for all their premierships recently the Roosters finals form isn’t that great. They have only won three of their last ten finals games going back to 2020. And away is pretty grim, Roosters have won only one of their last nine away finals games. But have won the last two on a Saturday including a last start finals win over the Sharks.

One outlier is the Sharks have a woeful record at Shark Park v Roosters on a Saturday – W2 L12 since 1998. But Cronulla have won six in a row at home coming into this game. Only one of those sides ended up in the top eight – Roosters. So their flat-track bully status is not helped.

The big team news is Nicho Hynes escaping punishment for a hip drop. And he’s hit form just in time to be blamed by half of rugby league for the Sharks demise. Braydon Trindall returns to take some heat off him, and Briton Nikora is in the reserves and can be sure he’ll play too. Roosters are unchanged and why would they need to be anything else.

SUNDAY 4:05 – CANBERRA v BRISBANE – CANBERRA STADIUM

FINALS RECORD: NO MATCHES SINCE 1998

An interesting clash indeed. The Broncos are in their arrogant best form of the season, obviously using special toilet water as the key. But Canberra did win the minor premiership and have spent 2025 winning in so many different ways, sticking two fingers up the critics along the way. Just as you presume Ricky Stuart likes it.

Canberra have recent form over the Broncos and Queensland sides and Sundays. Canberra have won four of their last five in Canberra v Brisbane. And four in a row on a Sunday. Canberra have lost just one of 12 home games in the regular season in 2025. Canberra have won five in a row in Canberra on a Sunday. Canberra have won five in a row in Canberra v Qld sides.

As for finals, it’s more hit and miss. For both sides. 

Canberra are W5 L3 in finals as the home side and have won their last three at Canberra Stadium and are W2 L6 in finals on a Sunday, but have won the only game in Canberra on a Sunday.

The Broncos do go ok in finals, but not away from Suncorp Stadium. Brisbane have lost their last nine finals games away from Suncorp Stadium, including scoring zero points in two of their last three games. Broncos are W2 L10 away from home in finals v Sydney teams going back to 1998.

The only team news that matters is Reece Walsh. Of course it’s all about him. But reports of hobbling off from training are key. If he doesn’t play, you could argue the Broncos don’t have enough firepower to get past the solid Raiders, who know how to win. Canberra are of course playing a side that looks less like a NSW Cup team this week.

2025 NRL Finals Week 1 Stats

Answering the big questions ahead of the NRL Finals starting. Which teams have done best against their finals opponents. And so much more.

• Cronulla and Roosters are the only teams without a 100% win record v one of the finals teams.
• Roosters are just ahead for points scored per game against fellow finals teams.
• Warriors average over eight points less per game.
• Roosters have the second worst defence v fellow finals teams, with Cronulla worst.
• Penrith lead the win % for finals games from 1998, 2015 and 2020. Winning a million finals games in a row helps.

FINALS TEAMS v FINALS TEAMS RECORD IN 2025

2025 NRL Round 27 Review + Finals Week 1 Preview

2025 NRL Season Stats So Far

And if you don’t believe our ratings, then help yourself to a bunch of stats from the 2025 NRL season.

Here’s the best of the NRL Team Stats from last weekend.