NRL | 2025 NRL Round 26 Ratings and Late Mail

Been too distracted by NRL coach sackings? Do you need some last-minute NRL tipping advice? Or simply want something else to blame when the tips go wrong? Either way, saddle up for The Gurgler’s NRL Round 26 Ratings and Late Mail.

In a new additional to our stable of NRL stats and tipping products, we have used all the stats we have, smashed them against each other like atoms, and come up with a H2H rating.

It includes this year’s form with a bias because it is this year, but we don’t forget historic stats of the H2H against this week’s opponents, and the ground and day the teams are playing on, plus their record v top and lower half teams.

Then slice up the scores out of 100% between the two sides. The bigger the percentage, the more likely to win.

2025 NRL Round 26 Ratings

Here are the H2H ratings and winners for the second last weekend of the regular season.

2025 NRL Round 26 Late Mail

THU – BULLDOGS v PANTHERS (Olympic Stadium)

This could have been some kind of game before Penrith decided to rest a thousand first grade players. It’s almost not even worth doing a summary. But you can’t blame Penrith for looking after themselves but do need to ask the question how it has all come to this. Are we going to be left with ten full, decent rounds of NRL? There’s a massive quality v quantity debate to be had.

Anyways, a few stats below, that were much better when teams were at full strength. Penrith have won eight in a row v Bulldogs, with a last loss in 2019. In 2025, between the Bulldogs and Panthers there’s just one win in eight games combined on a Thursday, and one game was them playing each other.

In a mirror of the 2024 season, Penrith lost to Melbourne in Round 24, then Canberra in Round 25. That ended up pretty well for Penrith from memory.

FRI – WARRIORS v PARRAMATTA

A tricky game for the Warriors, fourth v fourth last but the Eels are getting things together, helped by the return of Mitchell Moses and sticking with youth. The H2H says Eels – Parramatta have won five of the last six games v Warriors. But so had the Gold Coast before last weekend too and Parramatta have won all three games v Warriors at Mt Smart Stadium on a Friday plus Parramatta have won five of the six games played v Warriors on a Friday anywhere. But Fridays suit the Warriors too, they are W3 L1 at Mt Smart on a Friday this season and it’s W4 L1 on a Friday anywhere, with the other game being in Christchurch. Eels aren’t great on the road though, Parramatta have won three of 11 away games this season, but two of the wins were on a Friday.

Unlike the previous games, there’s nothing to really report on the player front.

FRI – MELBOURNE v ROOSTERS

A high quality clash on paper that sees some players rested for the Storm, but not to the extent of the Panthers. Xavier Coates, Nick Meaney, Eli Katoa and Josh King are all rested this week and Harry Grant is suspended. Big man Nelson Asofa-Solomona returns though, providing a great rival to the Roosters big forwards in a clash that should be fun. Sam Walker is out but Sandon Smith is in, so not too bad, and Daniel Tupou returns. This gives the Roosters a slight advantage on players, but the stats aren’t great.

Melbourne have won seven in a row v Roosters and 12 of the last 13. Melbourne have won four in a row at home v Roosters. The Roosters have a poor record v the last two premiers in the NRL – Melbourne and Penrith. They have won just two of the last 25 games played since 2020. Melbourne lead the competition for winning against top eight sides this season (top eight art time of fixture) with a W5 L3 record. Roosters vs top half record is W4 L7.

Melbourne are also hard to beat at home on a Friday. Melbourne have won eight in a row on a Friday at home with a last loss in 2023 at Marvel Stadium. Melbourne have won 15 of their last 16 at AAMI Park on a Friday. Roosters are W5 L5 on a Friday this season and W2 L4 away on a Friday.

SAT – CANBERRA v WESTS TIGERS

Depending on the above result, the Raiders could seal the Minor Premiership on Saturday. Luckily they’re playing the Tigers who they have a great record against. Canberra have won 13 of their last 15 games v Wests Tigers. Canberra have won their last four home games v Tigers, and Canberra have won five in a row on a Saturday v Tigers with a last loss in 2014 plus Canberra are W6 L1 for home games on a Saturday v Wests Tigers.

Top v bottom stats suit the Raiders too. Canberra are 9/9 for games v bottom half sides at home this season. Wests Tigers are 0/5 v top half teams away. (Top/Bottom Half at time of fixture not current ladder).

Xavier Savage is out for the season, which sad, but Savelio Tamale is in which is good. Adam Doueihi is out for the Tigers which hurts, as he has been a big part of their recent turnaround in wins. Latu Fainu is a solid replacement, not necessarily a game breaker though.

SAT – ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA v MANLY (Kogarah)

Manly’s finals hopes are still hanging on like DCE’s 2026 options, and should beat the Dragons, but probably won’t. Stats are pretty thin for either side – The Dragons have won their last two Saturday games, both at home. Overall in 2025 their Saturday record anywhere is W4 L8. Manly’s Saturday record this season is W6 L2. The wins and losses are the same home and away but Manly have won three Saturday away games in a row. Both teams have woeful form v fellow Sydney clubs. Dragons are at 25% win rate this season while Manly is 36% but that drops to 1/5 away.

Some decent ins for the Dragons this weekend with Jaydn Su’A, Jack de Belin, Hame Sele and Tyrell Sloan. No changes and no excuses for Manly if they fail to beat the Dragons.

SAT – NORTH QUEENSLAND v BRISBANE

The big Queensland rivalry with both teams finding form, but the Cowboys are only playing for nuisance value for their Queensland foes. The Broncos have the edge in stats Brisbane have won five in a row v Cowboys. Two of those were in Townsville on a Saturday. Brisbane are also 5/5 v Qld teams this season, so Queensland derbies aren’t a problem. Cowboys are W2 L3 v Qld teams this season with both wins v Titans. North Qld are W1 L4 for their last five Saturday games v Qld sides. North Qld (W1 D1 L5) have won one of their last seven on a Saturday but Brisbane have lost four in a row on a Saturday away from home.

Adam Reynolds is named among the reserves, which is a big in if it he makes it further up the list. No changes for the Cowboys who are gunning for three straight wins for the first time since April this season.

SUN – CRONULLA v NEWCASTLE

Newcastle seem to have finally parted ways with their coach, and you do wonder with the gloom he brings that Newcastle will be uplifted this weekend against the Sharks. The stats certainly aren’t on their side. Cronulla have won five of their last six v Newcastle. The only loss for Cronulla at home in the last eight games v Newcastle was in Redcliffe. Cronulla have won nine of their last 11 games v Newcastle on a Sunday. Sunday stats are even worse with Cronulla have won six in a row on Sunday. Newcastle have lost all seven Sunday games this season.

So given those stats, if Newcastle wins that is pure coach sacked bounce.

KL Iro returns for the Sharks which sees Siosifa Talakai drop to the bench for impact, which works well. No changes named for the Knights, but with a new coach who knows. Greg Marzhew is named as 18th man and it would be a shame for them if he remained there if fit. No forgetting that the Knights can’t allow the Titans to win one more games than them over the last two games as they will eat the wooden spoon for 2025 instead.

SUN – DOLPHINS v GOLD COAST (Suncorp Stadium)

Dolphins need to win. Somehow they have been gifted a second/third chance at finals, so if they can’t beat the Titans, who are last and who the Dolphins have a good record against, then they don’t deserve any more chances. Dolphins lead the Titans H2H 4-1, but the only loss is at Suncorp Stadium.

But, the Titans have also sacked their head coach, although he’s staying put for the last two games. But this is a battle of one teams striving for first finals against one that needs to win to avoid last.

Gold Coast have a bad record v Qld sides this season – they have lost all five games v Qld sides this season. But on a Sunday Gold Coast are W5 L1 v Qld sides at Suncorp Stadium. Also, Dolphins have won only one of their last seven Sunday games.

Kodi Nikorima returns for the Dolphins after being a late scratching last weekend, and the fallout sees Jake Averillo move back to centre. The Hammer remains at centre while Trai Fuller remains at fullback. Why not, we’ll see if last weekend v Manly was a blip or a trend. The Dolphins need to win so may as well go out swinging. No changes for the Titans of note.

2025 NRL Round 25 Review + Round 26 Preview

2025 NRL Season Stats So Far

And if you don’t believe our ratings, then help yourself to a bunch of stats from the 2025 NRL season.

Here’s the best of the NRL Team Stats from last weekend.