Five rounds to go and so much to play for, especially the Spoon Bowl clash on the Gold Coast on Sunday. Talking of a cutlery, our 2025 NRL Round 23 Tips Predictions & Stats Preview is here and will carve up any opposition tipping weekly.
Each week this season we offer up a quick preview glance for each match, throw in a bunch of barely interesting stats, and mix in a pinch of opinion, some spicy tips and you have a rugby league soup with probably more flavour than one could ever need or want. It’s all you can eat NRL stats.
2025 NRL Round 23 Tips
Here are our tips for the week ahead. How did we get to here? By going through all the visuals and stats below.
MELBOURNE by 20
PENRITH by 24
MANLY by 2
CRONULLA by 12
DOLPHINS by 6
BULLDOGS by 12
GOLD COAST by 4
PARRAMATTA by 2
2025 NRL Round 23 Tips Weekly H2H Stats Summary Cheat Sheets
Looking for a cheat sheet for the weekend’s upcoming games?
Here’s as much information that we could cram into one size fits all visual.
Plus our famed barely interesting stats all in the one place for this week of fewer games.
2025 NRL Round 23 Tips Weekly Barely Interesting Stats
Our famed barely interesting stats all in the one place for you convenience and arguments.
THU – MELBOURNE v BRISBANE
Melbourne have won all 19 home games on a Thursday.
Four of those Thursday home games have been against the Broncos.
Home or away, Melbourne are undefeated against Brisbane on a Thursday (eight games).
Melbourne have won eight games straight at AAMI Park v Brisbane.
Melbourne have won 16 in a row at AAMI Park v Qld sides with a last loss in 2016.
It’s not all about Melbourne, Brisbane have won both of their Thursday clashes this season and scored over 40 points both times.
Brisbane have a dreadful record away to non-Sydney teams on a Thursday – W4 L12.
FRI – NEWCASTLE v PENRITH
Newcastle’s upset over Penrith earlier in the season broke a run of ten straight losses to the Panthers.
Newcastle have still lost seven in a row at home to Penrith, with a last win in 2015.
Obscure stat of the week – Penrith have won the only two games v Newcastle in Newcastle on a Friday and have scored 29 points on both occasions.
Newcastle have lost their last five Friday games and the last four Friday home games.
Newcastle have the worst home record this season. They share two home wins with the Titans, but they have lost one fewer game.
Penrith are unbeaten in six away games now W5 D1.
FRI – CANBERRA v MANLY
Manly have won their last two visits to Canberra and five of the last saix.
Canberra have won both of their Friday games this season, but both were away. And not on Channel Nein.
Manly are W1 L3 on a Friday this season.
Manly have won only one of their last 12 away games on a Friday.
Manly have conceded on average the fewest points of any team in the first half this season at 7.7.
SAT – ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA v CRONULLA (Kogarah)
Cronulla have won ten in a row v St George Illawarra.
Cronulla have won five in a row v St George Illawarra at Kogarah.
Dragons are at least W5 L3 at home to Cronulla on a Saturday, but only one of those games was at Kogarah.
The Dragons have played the second most games on a Saturday this season (11) but the problem is they have only won three of them. Plus just one of seven v Sydney teams.
St George Illawarra have won two of their last 15 v Sydney teams on any day.
Cronulla are W9 L2 v bottom half sides (at time of fixture). Draogns are W2 L9 v top half sides in a nice rearrangement of their respective stats.
SAT – DOLPHINS v ROOSTERS (Suncorp Stadium)
Dolphins have scored 149 points in their last three games at Suncorp Stadium.
Dolphins are W5 L2 on a Saturday at Suncorp Stadium.
Dolphins are W8 L2 v Sydney teams at Suncorp Stadium.
Their first win at Suncorp Stadium v Sydney sides was their first ever game in the NRL against the Roosters.
Roosters have won their last three games v Qld sides.
Roosters have won seven of the last nine v Qld sides at Suncorp Stadium and the only games played on a Saturday.
SAT – BULLDOGS v WARRIORS (Olympic Stadium)
Bulldogs are W6 L2 at the Olympic Stadium this season.
Warriors are W12 L3 v Bulldogs on a Saturday. Six of those games have been in Australia. Four at the Olympic Stadium where the Warriors record is W3 L1.
Warriors have won only two of their last six. If the ladder was re-calculated on form since Winter started in June, the Warriors would be outside the top eight on points difference. Bulldogs would be 6th.
Warriors have won five of their last six away.
Warriors have won five in a row to Sydney teams and all four in 2025.
SUN – GOLD COAST v SOUTH SYDNEY
South Sydney have won nine on a row v Gold Coast with a last loss in 2016 in Perth.
South Sydney have won ten in a row v Titans at CBUS Stadium with a last loss in 2009.
Souths have won the only game at CBUS Stadium on a Sunday.
Gold Coast have beaten Souths twice in five Sunday games since 1998. One in Perth in 2016, and the other in 1998 when they were called the Chargers.
Souths have won just one of their last nine games on a Sunday.
Gold Coast have lost 11 games in a row on a Sunday.
But at least those 11 loses have seen 54 points per game being scored.
Titans have lost all three Sunday home games this season.
SUN – PARRAMATTA v NORTH QUEENSLAND
Parramatta have won five of their last six home games v North Queensland.
At CommBank, Parramatta are unbeaten in three games there v Cowboys.
Parramatta are W4 L6 at CommBank Stadium this season.
Parramatta are W1 L3 at CommBank Stadium this season on a Sunday. The only win was against the Gold Coast.
Parramatta have won only one of their last nine on a Sunday.
Cowboys have lost both of their away games on a Sunday this season v Sydney teams.
2025 NRL Season Stats Extra – The Winter Cup
Given the past few months and a bit have seemed like the competition has turned a little upside down, with top teams starting to lose a lot more frequently, Penrith’s run from last to who knows where that will end up, and everything in between.
So for fun, and we do love fund, we revised the ladder based on results from games in June, July and August, and calling it the Winter Cup. It doubles as a good indicator to how some of the teams are going heading into the business end of the season.
2025 NRL Season Stats
The best of the stats from the season that has been.
