NRL | 2025 NRL Round 22 Ratings and Late Mail

Been too distracted by the start of The Block on Channel Nein? Do you need some last-minute NRL tipping advice? Or simply want something else to blame when the tips go wrong? Either way, saddle up for The Gurgler’s NRL Round 22 Ratings and Late Mail.

In a new additional to our stable of NRL stats and tipping products, we have used all the stats we have, smashed them against each other like atoms, and come up with a H2H rating.

It includes this year’s form with a bias because it is this year, but we don’t forget historic stats of the H2H against this week’s opponents, and the ground and day the teams are playing on.

We’ve also applied an adjustment for each team’s increase or decrease in win % over the Origin period.

Then slice up the scores out of 100% between the two sides. The bigger the percentage, the more likely to win.

2025 NRL Round 22 Ratings

Here are the H2H ratings and winners for the first of the Origin affected rounds.

Our ratings picked just 5/8 last weekend, but improvement coming this week.

2025 NRL Round 22 Late Mail

THU – PARRAMATTA v MELBOURNE

Melbourne have won the last five straight v Parramatta. Melbourne have also won seven of their last eight away games on a Thursday and Melbourne have won their last five Thursday matches away to Sydney clubs. Parramatta do lead 3-1 in the Thursday H2H v Storm with all four of those games at CommBank Stadium.

FRI – WAHS v DOLPHINS

These teams have alternated winners for the five games played in the short history, so no team has won more than one in a row. That helps the Dolphins. What doesn’t is Friday form this season. Warriors have won all three home games on a Friday this season. Dolphins have lost all three away games on a Friday this season.

FRI – BRONCOS v RABBITOHS

Despite being busted arse with injuries and suspensions, the Rabbitohs have something on their side. Souths have won the last two games v Broncos and scored 22 points in both games. Souths are at least W3 L3 on a Friday this season – two of those wins were v Qld sides. Broncos form on a Friday isn’t that great either, Broncos record at home to Souths on a Friday night is W7 L5. Broncos have lost their last two Friday home matches and Broncos record at home on a Friday to Sydney teams since 2020 is W5 L10. But ultimately Souths have lost eight in a row and haven’t won since Autumn and they have lost most of their best players.

SAT – GOLD COAST v PENRITH

Gold Coast are good against the Warriors and Wests Tigers, and recently beat one of those two. But Penrith aren’t the Warriors, for a number of reasons. Penrith are from Australia, and Penrith have won four Premierships in a row. Against the Titans Penrith have won six in a row v Gold Coast and 10 of the last 11. Penrith are W21 D1 L3 for away games on a Saturday since 2020. There is a minor wobble this season for the Panthers as Penrith are W1 D1 L2 v Qld teams this season. As for the Titans, it doesn’t look good, as Gold Coast have lost four in a row at home to Penrith and their last win was in 2019. Gold Coast have also won just one of their last seven home games on a Saturday to Penrith.

SAT – ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA v CANBERRA @ Win Stadium

This game should end the Dragons hopes for finals in 2025, that’s not a bad thing. Canberra have won a million in a row and they have won five straight v St George Illawarra. The Raiders have also won seven away games in a row. Going the Dragons way but only just is the H2H at WIN Stadium is Dragons 7 – Raiders 5. But then St George Illawarra are terrible on Saturdays and have won only two of their last 13 games on a Saturday.

SAT – MANLY v ROOSTERS

No magic bullet of stats for this one. Manly have beaten the Roosters at Brookvale the last two seasons and Manly have won their last three home games on a Saturday. And Manly have won their last four games on a Saturday anywhere. But the Roosters have won their last three games on a Saturday. The last two were away. Plus the Roosters have won six of their last seven games v Sydney sides on a Saturday.

SUN – WESTS TIGERS v BULLDOGS @ CommBank Stadium

Good news for the Bulldogs, as they have won three in a row v Wests Tigers. And the last three games on a Sunday. And the Bulldogs have won all six games on a Sunday this season. It’s mixed news for both teams at CommBank Stadium – Wests Tigers lead the H2H at CommBank Stadium by 2-1. Wests Tigers are W5 L13 as the home side at CommBank Stadium. They have a better record as the away side (W5 L6). Bulldogs are W2 L8 as the away side at CommBank Stadium.

SUN – CRONULLA v NORTH QUEENSLAND

The Sharks have found some form with three straight wins now, but their razor thin margin of victory against Souths with some of the most lop sided stats of the season shows they aren’t going that great. That being said, Cronulla have won their last five home games on a Sunday, including a win over the Cowboys. Cronulla have also won their last three at home on any day, plus Cronulla have won 13 of their last 15 v North Qld. Cronulla have won three in a row at home to North Qld and seven of the last eight. But, the home record on a Sunday v North Qld is W1 L4 and North Qld have won eight of their last 11 away games to Sydney teams on a Sunday. On current form, the Cowboys stats won’t overturn their chances of making the finals.

 2025 NRL Round 21 Review + Round 22 Preview

2025 NRL Season Stats So Far

And if you don’t believe our ratings, then help yourself to a bunch of stats from the 2025 NRL season.

Here’s the best of the NRL Team Stats from last weekend.