NRL | 2025 NRL Round 21 Ratings and Late Mail

Been too distracted by a Coldplay concert? Do you need some last-minute NRL tipping advice? Or simply want something else to blame when the tips go wrong? Either way, saddle up for The Gurgler’s NRL Round 21 Ratings and Late Mail.

In a new additional to our stable of NRL stats and tipping products, we have used all the stats we have, smashed them against each other like atoms, and come up with a H2H rating.

It includes this year’s form with a bias because it is this year, but we don’t forget historic stats of the H2H against this week’s opponents, and the ground and day the teams are playing on.

We’ve also applied an adjustment for each team’s increase or decrease in win % over the Origin period.

Then slice up the scores out of 100% between the two sides. The bigger the percentage, the more likely to win.

2025 NRL Round 21 Ratings

Here are the H2H ratings and winners for the first of the Origin affected rounds.

Our ratings picked just 5/8 last weekend, but improvement coming this week.

2025 NRL Round 21 Late Mail

Thu – ROOSTERS v MELBOURNE

Melbourne have a great record v Roosters, especially on a Thursday. Even great enough to make Craig Bellamy happy. Melbourne have won six in a row v Roosters and 11 of their last 12 matches. It’s five in a row on the road too. Better still, Melbourne have never lost to the Roosters on a Thursday (five games). It’s not bad v Sydney teams too as Melbourne have won 11 of their last 12 Thursday games and seven straight v Sydney teams. On the flip side the Roosters have won one of their last six at home on a Thursday v non-Sydney clubs. It’s not much better on other days with just five wins in 14 games at home v non-Sydney clubs at home.

No Cameron Munster but the ever reliable Tyran Wishart will easily do the job. Sandon Smith gets a chance in the same position for the Roosters.

Fri – NORTH QUEENSLAND v ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA

Hmmm, this looks like Last Chance Saloon for both sides for finals. Cowboys have the upper hand in H2H and they have won five in a row v Dragons. Plus it’s W12 L4 at home to the Dragons. North Queensland have won their last two games at home on a Friday. But overall their Friday home form is patchy. Since 2020 it is W6 L8. Could be worse, the Dragons Friday form is awful – Dragons have lost seven away games in a row on a Friday and the Dragons have won five of their last 35 away games on a Friday going back to 2011. Plus Dragons have won one of their last ten away games on a Friday v Qld sides.

Fri – BRISBANE v PARRAMATTA

Brisbane have a good record v the Eels and have won four games straight v Parramatta on a Friday. The last four games have all been played on a Friday. Overall Broncos are W6 L3 on a Friday at Suncorp Stadium v Parramatta. But going a bit deeper the Broncos stats get a bit scratchy. Brisbane have won just five of their last 14 home games on a Friday to Sydney sides since 2020 and Broncos are only W5 L4 v bottom half sides this season. . (Bottom half at the time of fixture). Lukcy Parramatta are bad away and against top eight sides this season – Parramatta have lost four away games in a row and It’s also four games in a row away v Qld sides and Parramatta have lost all nine games v top eight sides this season. (Top eight at the time of fixture).

Big name back for both sides with Payne Haas  returning from a rest for Brisbane and Mitchell Moses from injury for Parramatta.

Sat – WAHS v GOLD COAST

Don’t rule out a Titans win here, they have a surprisingly good recent record v Wahs. Gold Coast have won five of their last six v Warriors. Gold Coast have won their last two games v Warriors, and scored exactly 27 points in both of those games. In general the Titans aren’t going well – the have lost their last seven away games on a Saturday and have won just twice since Round 4. Warriors are rebounding after a few losses a few rounds ago and have won their last four home games v Qld sides on a Saturday.

Tino Fa’asuamaelaui out injured is a huge loss, while the Wahs get Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad back. Stats may not be enough here for the Titans.

Sat – PENRITH v WESTS TIGERS (CommBank)

The last nine games for the Panthers v Wests Tigers – results follow this pattern. Most recent game first – WWLWWLWWL. So a loss is due for Penrith. Although that does seem unlikely. Panthers are 3/3 v Tigers at CommBank Stadium, but Wests Tigers have won four of the last seven clashes v Penrith on a Saturday, so not without hope. What is hopeless is the Tigers away Saturday record – Wests Tigers have won one of their last ten away games on a Saturday and Wests Tigers have won one of their last 11 away games on a Saturday v Sydney sides.

What won’t make it easier is the returning Panthers this week – Nathan Cleary and Isaah Yeo returning for sure and possibly Brian To’o and Liam Martin. An ex Panther’s return helps the Tigers – Api Koroisau,

Sat – SOUTH SYDNEY v CRONULLA (Gosford)

Souths are heading towards the bottom of the ladder, having the Gold Coast to thank for saving them for now. They have lost seven in a row, which is the 2025 season max losing streak. Souths have also lost their last five Saturday games. Cronulla aren’t much better and have won one of their last five away games on a Saturday. But the Sharks are at least on a two game winning run. The game is on the Central Coast, making it extra hard for Souths fan than usual. Souths have at least won their last three Saturday games at Central Coast Stadium, overall Souths are W8 L9 at Central Coast Stadium. Cronulla are W4 L3.

Souths are so low on players that their unwanted off season recruit gets his first start at halfback Lewis Dodd. Jye Gray returns to fullback which sort-of helps cover the injured Latrell Mitchell. For Cronulla the key players flows is Jesse Ramien out and Briton Nikora in.

Sun – CANBERRA v NEWCASTLE

Canberra are the in form team and on top of the table having won eight games in a row coming into this game. Canberra have won seven games in a row on a Sunday and their last five home games on a Sunday. But it is a different story v Newcastle. Newcastle have won their last two visits to Canberra and won four of their last five. Newcastle have won seven of their last nine v Canberra on a Sunday. But that’s recent history, moving forward to 2025 – Canberra have won all four home games v non-Sydney teams this season and Newcastle have lost all four Sunday games this season.

Sun – BULLDOGS v MANLY (Allianz)

Manly have the H2H advantage over the Bulldogs and have won four in a row v Bulldogs and ten of the last 11 match ups plus they have also won five in a row v Bulldogs on a Sunday. Against Sydney teams on a Sunday Manly haver the advantage as well – Manly have won seven of their last nine v Sydney teams away on a Sunday. Bulldogs have won two of their last 12 home games v Sydney clubs on a Sunday.

Using ladder position at time of fixture for 2025, Manly have a better record than the Bulldogs. Manly are W3 L3 while the Bulldogs are W2 L3. The game of course features two of the biggest talking points in the NRL in 2025 in Lachlan Galvin and DCE. Which will have league writers and commenters everywhere licking their lips. Haumole Olakau’atu is back for Manly which helps. Bronson Xerri is the key inbound player for the Bulldogs.

 2025 NRL Round 20 Review + Round 21 Preview

2025 NRL Season Stats So Far

And if you don’t believe our ratings, then help yourself to a bunch of stats from the 2025 NRL season.

Here’s the best of the NRL Team Stats from last weekend.