Been too distracted by the cold weather snap? Maybe you’re disappointed in the Origin teams named for the second game. Or over-excited like NRL media at Lachlan Galvin’s Bulldogs debut? Do you need some last-minute NRL tipping advice? Or simply want something else to blame when the tips go wrong? Either way, saddle up for The Gurgler’s NRL Round 15 Ratings and Late Mail.
In a new additional to our stable of NRL stats and tipping products, we have used all the stats we have, smashed them against each other like atoms, and come up with a H2H rating.
It includes this year’s form with a bias because it is this year, but we don’t forget historic stats of the H2H against this week’s opponents, and the ground and day the teams are playing on.
We’ve also applied an adjustment for each team’s increase or decrease in win % over the Origin period.
Then slice up the scores out of 100% between the two sides. The bigger the percentage, the more likely to win.
2025 NRL Round 15 Ratings
Here are the H2H ratings and winners for the first of the Origin affected rounds.
Our ratings picked 6/8 last weekend, with the Warriors proving elusive again and there was only 0.8% in our Newcastle v Manly rating, so close enough really.
The Ratings also includes the team’s relevant Origin period form.
2025 NRL Round 15 Late Mail
THU – CRONULLA v ST GEORGE-ILLAWARRA
Ratings, stats, ladder position all point to a Sharks victory here, although both sides were well beaten last weekend, and well beaten is generous for one of the sides. Ronaldo Mulitalo and KL Iro are out for the Sharks which is a downside. But the Sharks also have no Origin players out either. Which means not only do they have a strong side with continuity, but Origin won’t ruin the rest of Nicho Hynes’ season. Valentine Holmes is the Origin absentee for the Dragons, although you can’t imagine after last weekend it would make that much difference. Cronulla have won nine in a row v Dragons and four in a row at home v Dragons.
FRI – GOLD COAST v MANLY
One of the more lop-sided H2H Ratings for the season since we started them, and while the Titans aren’t going too well, you wouldn’t think they are that much worse than Manly. But that’s stats for you. Manly welcome back Tom Trbojevic and Jason Saab from injury, which will provide speed and tries to their backline. They also get to keep DCE after his news-making axing from the Maroons side. One wonders if he will be ready to prove doubters wrong, or the emotional baggage of being dropped from the Origin side will flow onto this weekend’s game. Gold Coast are without a few cylinders in their engine room as Tino Fa’asuamaleaui and Moeaki Fotuaika are both on Origin duty. The Titans home record v Manly and home record on a Friday is poor. As is Manly’s away record on a Friday. At least Manly have one stat going for them – Manly have won eight of their last ten away games v Qld sides.
SAT – NEWCASTLE v ROOSTERS
One wonders if the Newcastle fans know rugby league enough this weekend to turn up on Saturday to watch this game. They might also know that Newcastle have a terrible home record v Roosters, so maybe they will stay away. Unlikely. But, going back to 2012, Newcastle have won three of their last 20 games v Roosters. Plus Newcastle have lost their last four home games v Roosters and won just three of their last 17 home games v Roosters going back to 2002. Ouch. But it is a different Roosters these days, and they are missing key players through Origin – Robert Toia and Angus Crichton – but still get to keep James Tedesco. And the Roosters should be fresh after a bye. And in huge team news for the Roosters they get Sam Walker back. Newcastle are missing just one player for Origin, but Kalyn Ponga is a big deal, the match winner from last weekend. It means Jackson Hastings will make his 2025 debut, as the coach decides he doesn’t hate him as much this weekend. Fletcher Sharpe moving to fullback is a good silver lining of Origin absentees.
SAT – COWBOYS v DOLPHINS
This is a game with plenty of omissions. The Cowboys lose four players to Origin and another two through suspension. It’s not all bad news for North Queensland fans as Murray Taulagi, Kai O’Donnell and Jason Taumalolo all return from injury. Dolphins also have one of their stars missing in The Hammer, but Jake Averillo fills in for him art fullback and they lose very little. Talking of losing, Max Plath is out for an extended period, and Daniel Saifiti is out for the season. To go along with the two Toms. Dolphins won big in their last Origin period match v Bulldogs, so the changes have at least done it before. Stats favour the Dolphins too with the away side has won all four of the Cowboys v Dolphins fixtures. Dolphins are 5/5 for away games v Qld sides that are not the Broncos too. A chance to leapfrog the Cowboys awaits the Dolphins if they win.
SUN – SOUTHS v BULLDOGS (Olympic)
Origin success is catching up with the Bulldogs with three players out with Origin commitments. Age is catching up with South Sydney’s Cody Walker. He’s out this week and who knows after that, probably the season. Bulldogs have won all their games v NSW sides this season and are without loss on a Sunday. Souths stats are hit and miss -South Sydney have won their last four Sunday matches v Bulldogs. Souths have won only one of their last six on a Sunday going back to 2023. That was old Souths though. At least Latrell Mitchell’s absence means Jye Gray gets another shot to win the Dally M. Stephen Crichton, Max King and Kurt Mann are all missing because of Origin selection, and Matt Burton is missing because of the Origin series too, but sadly for him he won’t get to play as the 18th man. Blake Taaffe and Jacob Preston headlines the returning players this weekend for the Cowboys. All this and no Lachlan Galvin chat so far.
2025 NRL Round 15 Late Mail – Stats Extra
STATE OF ORIGIN PERIOD COMPARISON
Wondered if a team is much better or worse during State of Origin? You may be surprised, and also not surprised at the same time.
Some handy visuals are below to help you pick a winner.
2025 NRL Round 14 Review + Round 15 Preview
Here’s the best of our wrap ups of last weekend and look forward to this weekend.
NRL ROUND 15 TIPS AND STATS
NRL ROUND 15 – NRL DONKEY EXPERT TIPS AND OPINION
NRL STATS EXTRA – THE RAY STONE CORNERSTONE
NRL ROUND 14 TEAM OF THE WEEK
NRL ROUND 14 STATS n STUFF
2025 NRL Season Stats So Far
And if you don’t believe our ratings, then help yourself to a bunch of stats from the 2025 NRL season.
Here’s the best of the NRL Team Stats from last weekend.
READ MORE: THE GURGLER’S 2025 NRL SEASON SPECIALS
NRL 2025 SEASON LADDER PREDICTIONS
WOODEN SPOONERS 2025 NRL HEADLINES
WHY YOUR TEAM CAN’T WIN THE NRL 2025 PREMIERSHIP
