Been too distracted by the State of Origin opener? Or Phil Gould and/or Lachlan Galvin? So do you need some last-minute NRL tipping advice? Want something else to blame when the tips go wrong? Well then saddle up for The Gurgler’s NRL Round 13 Ratings and Late Mail.
In a new additional to our stable of NRL stats and tipping products, we have used all the stats we have, smashed them against each other like atoms, and come up with a H2H rating.
It includes this year’s form with a bias because it is this year, but we don’t forget historic stats of the H2H against this week’s opponents, and the ground and day the teams are playing on.
We’ve also applied an adjustment for each team’s increase or decrease in win % over the Origin period.
Then slice up the scores out of 100% between the two sides. The bigger the percentage, the more likely to win.
2025 NRL Round 13 Ratings
Here are the H2H ratings and winners for the first of the Origin affected rounds.
Our ratings only picked 1/5 last weekend, which although is poor, is better than a lot.
The Ratings also includes the team’s relevant Origin period form.
2025 NRL Round 13 Late Mail
Fri ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA (Kogarah) v NEWCASTLE
A tough one to pick first up with no clear stats advantage for either side. Dragons have won their last two games on a Friday at Kogarah.
Origin Players: Dragons 1 Newcastle 1
Origin Period Win % Difference: Dragons +7% Newcastle -9%
Sat GOLD COAST V MELBOURNE
The one sided game of the weekend according to the ratings, but no surprise as Melbourne games are mostly like that. Both teams supplied a bunch of players to Origin, but given they all played for Queensland it might not be a good thing. Gold Coast have won four of their last five matches at CBUS Stadium on a Saturday. Just not the most recent clash v Dolphins. But, Melbourne have won 13 of the last 15 games v Gold Coast going back to 2015.
Origin Players: Gold Coast 3 Melbourne 4
Origin Period Win % Difference: Gold Coast -6% Melbourne +1%
Sat NORTH QUEENSLAND v WESTS TIGERS
North Queensland have won their last three games v Wests Tigers and scored 164 points in the process. They have won only one of their last three at home v Wests Tigers on a Saturday. North Queensland’s record at home on a Saturday to Sydney clubs since 2024 is W1 D1 L4.
Origin Players: North Qld 4 Wests Tigers 0
Origin Period Win % Difference: North Qld +1% Wests Tigers -7%
Sat MANLY v BRISBANE
Manly haven’t played Brisbane at Brookvale since 2014. Manly have lost their last three at home but Broncos are W1 L2 away in Sydney this season. Brisbane have the second worst Origin period win % of all the teams. Origin stars have been named, which may or may not help Manly. You’d think the Broncos hard working duo would get a rest, but not in the team’s current form. No Tom Trbojevic for Manly, but also No Reece Walsh for Brisbane. Selwyn Cobbo has been moved to the wing, which is a step backwards.
Origin Players: Manly 1 Brisbane 2
Origin Period Win % Difference: Manly +1% Brisbane -14%
Sun SOUTHS v WAHS (Accor Stadium)
There were enough moments from Latrell in Origin to think that his decent recent form will continue for South Sydney. Warriors won this game last season, when Souths were poor, but the recent record is mostly Souths domination – W14 L1 prior to that last match. Warriors five game winning run was ended last Sunday at home. Their away form is pretty bad on a Sunday – going back to 2021, the Warriors have won only three of 17 away games on a Sunday.
Origin Players: South Sydney 2 Wahs 1
Origin Period Win % Difference: South Sydney +6% Wahs -9%
Sun PENRITH v PARRAMATTA (CommBank)
Still hard to believe the all conquering Panthers are still dead last and the loss last weekend highlights just how much they need their Origin players back. Playing their home games at CommBank isn’t helping either – Penrith have lost all three games at CommBank Stadium this season. Parramatta have won two in a row now and looking for a first hat trick of wins since June 2023. A few last minute key stats for this game though – Penrith have won 22/25 Sunday games since 2021 and Penrith have won 13 games in a row v Sydney teams on a Sunday..
Origin Players: Penrith 5 Parramatta 2
Origin Period Win % Difference: Penrith -10% Parramatta +3%
Sun ROOSTERS v CANBERRA
Canberra know how to win right now, sitting second on the ladder and having won seven of their last eight. There are some great stats for Canberra fans too. Canberra have won the last two games v Roosters at the Sydney Football Stadium. Prior to that they won just one of 17 games going back to 1998. Canberra have won four straight v Roosters on a Sunday. Canberra have won their last five Sunday games v anyone. All of the Origin players are named, but even with them, the Roosters have won of the worst changes in win % over Origin period.
Roosters have lost their last four at the Sydney Football Stadium v non Sydney teams.
Origin Players: Roosters 5 Canberra 1
Origin Period Win % Difference: Roosters -18% Canberra -5%
2025 NRL Round 12 Late Mail – Stats Extra
STATE OF ORIGIN PERIOD COMPARISON
Wondered if a team is much better or worse during State of Origin? You may be surprised, and also not surprised at the same time.
Some handy visuals are below to help you pick a winner.
2025 NRL Round 12 Review + Round 13 Preview
Here’s the best of our wrap ups of last weekend and look forward to this weekend.
NRL ROUND 13 TIPS AND STATS
NRL ROUND 13 – NRL DONKEY EXPERT TIPS AND OPINION
NRL STATS EXTRA – THE RAY STONE CORNERSTONE
NRL ROUND 12 TEAM OF THE WEEK
NRL ROUND 12 STATS n STUFF
2025 NRL Season Stats So Far
And if you don’t believe our ratings, then help yourself to a bunch of stats from the 2025 NRL season.
Here’s the best of the NRL Team Stats from last weekend.
READ MORE: THE GURGLER’S 2025 NRL SEASON SPECIALS
NRL 2025 SEASON LADDER PREDICTIONS
WOODEN SPOONERS 2025 NRL HEADLINES
WHY YOUR TEAM CAN’T WIN THE NRL 2025 PREMIERSHIP
