Been too distracted by someone offering you a lunch of mushrooms? Or whether Phil Gould and the Bulldogs really want Lachlan Galvin? So do you need some last-minute NRL tipping advice? Want something else to blame when the tips go wrong? Well then saddle up for The Gurgler’s NRL Round 12 Ratings and Late Mail.
In a new additional to our stable of NRL stats and tipping products, we have used all the stats we have, smashed them against each other like atoms, and come up with a H2H rating.
It includes this year’s form with a bias because it is this year, but we don’t forget historic stats of the H2H against this week’s opponents, and the ground and day the teams are playing on. Then slice up the scores out of 100% between the two sides. The bigger the percentage, the more likely to win.
2025 NRL Round 12 Ratings
Here are the H2H ratings and winners for the first of the Origin affected rounds.
Our ratings only picked 50% last week, but did pick some of the less fancied results. And our ratings said Broncos-Dragons was a coin flip, which it was. Our ratings also don’t factor in the Dolphins being screwed over by bad refereeing last weekend.
The Ratings also includes the team’s relevant Origin period form.
2025 NRL Round 12 Late Mail
BULLDOGS v DOLPHINS
Red hot Bulldogs have paid the price for being good and have lost a few players to State of Origin. Although they might have Lachlan Galvin in their side if you believe rumours. Josh Curran returns which is a big plus for the Bulldogs. Dolphins have lost The Hammer to Origin but don’t lose too much with Jake Averillo at fullback. And they keep Ray Stone.
Dolphins don’t have a great record in NSW, but did win their last game in Sydney v Parramatta a couple of weeks ago. The Dolphins are W6 L2 all-time on a Thursday. Bulldogs have won all three games at the Olympic Stadium this season. Two of them to nil.
PARRAMATTA v MANLY
Some key players out of this game. Both halfbacks, but you get the feeling that one team won’t be too unhappy about losing theirs. For this week and long term. Although Manly won the last game between these sides, Parramatta have the better recent record. Talking of Fridays, Manly have an awful record away on a Friday and the Eels have lost five in a row at home on a Friday. But, the home side dominates this fixture, with the home side (either team) winning 13 of the last 15 going back to 2018.
PENRITH v NEWCASTLE
Penrith lose the usual busload of players to State of Origin duties, and they haven’t been great with them for most of 2025. But the Knights have lost Kalyn Ponga, which at his best is a huge loss. On 2025 form, it isn’t that big. Newcastle getting desperate as they have named the seemingly unwanted Jackson Hastings (as a reserve).
This game is in Bathurst, where the Panthers’ record is W6 L4. Penrith have the H2H dominance over the Knights as they have won seven in a row v Newcastle and from 2016, Penrith have won 13 of 15 matches v Newcastle. There is hope, as Penrith are only one competition point ahead and Newcastle have won five of their last six away games on a Saturday that weren’t in Qld.
ROOSTERS v SHARKS
A six pack of stars out for the Roosters this weekend, but at least the previously unwanted Dom Young gets a recall. An injured Samuel Stonestreet is the only out for the Sharks who have perfected the art of being good enough to win lots of games, but not enough to make Origin. And Origin won’t ruin Nicho Hynes’ season again.
This game is at Gosford. Cronulla have won the only clash v Roosters at Gosford. Roosters are W10 L10 at Gosford. But have won their last five games there. Sharks are W4 L2 at Gosford but have won their last three games there and scored 40+ points in all three wins. Without the Origin stars missing this would have been a huge clash. Still is, just without the players on one side.
WARRIORS v CANBERRA
A rare treat with a Warriors game on a Sunday and good for the New Zealand team too. The Warriors have won their last three home games at Mt Smart Stadium on a Sunday. Canberra don’t mind Sundays either as they have won four Sunday games in a row. All of those sides were non NSW. Key forwards out for both sides, the long travel may be a factor as the Raiders are W8 L15 for games in NZ since 1998.
2025 NRL Round 12 Late Mail – Stats Extra
STATE OF ORIGIN PERIOD COMPARISON
Wondered if a team is much better or worse during State of Origin? You may be surprised, and also not surprised at the same time.
Some handy visuals are below to help you pick a winner.
2025 NRL Round 11 Review + Round 12 Preview
Here’s the best of our wrap ups of last weekend and look forward to this weekend.
NRL ROUND 12 TIPS AND STATS
NRL ROUND 12 – NRL DONKEY EXPERT TIPS AND OPINION
NRL STATS EXTRA – THE RAY STONE CORNERSTONE
NRL ROUND 11 TEAM OF THE WEEK
NRL ROUND 11 STATS n STUFF
2025 NRL Season Stats So Far
And if you don’t believe our ratings, then help yourself to a bunch of stats from the 2025 NRL season.
Here’s the best of the NRL Team Stats from last weekend.
READ MORE: THE GURGLER’S 2025 NRL SEASON SPECIALS
NRL 2025 SEASON LADDER PREDICTIONS
WOODEN SPOONERS 2025 NRL HEADLINES
WHY YOUR TEAM CAN’T WIN THE NRL 2025 PREMIERSHIP
