The 2024 NRL Grand Final is here, and it is a mouth watering battle between arguably the best team of the post 1998 NRL era, and without question the best team of the past five season. So which great team will take out the 2024 NRL Premiership? Let our 2024 NRL Grand Final Keys to Victory have a wild guess at the winner.
What are our 2024 NRL Grand Final Keys to Victory you may ask? Thanks for asking.
Inspired by Allan Lichtman’s Keys to the White House and its uncanny ability to pick the winner of the US Election. So we thought it is good enough for US Politics, then surely we can cook something up for something even more important, like legacy defining NRL Grand Finals.
Like the Keys to the White House our 2024 NRL Grand Final Keys to Victory is all subjective, but we took as many relevant stats as we could. And only since 2014, because who has time to go further back. But does include ladder position and H2H record from this season, along with point scoring and conceding for the season and the finals series so far. Plus Finals winning % for all time and last six season plus Finals H2H for all time, and the rare occasion the Grand Final teams meet each other in the finals before the big game.
The end destination is the Category Wins, which is the total of wins within each of the 11 categories listed.
The last 10 seasons results plus this year’s stats are below for your interest.
2024 NRL Grand Final Keys to Victory
2024 NRL Grand Final Winner is…..
Melbourne Storm
The Storm win the Category wins by just 6-5, in one of the tighter battles of the last few seasons.
The last five winners of the Category Wins has won the Grand Final which is good news for the Melbourne Storm fans, but thins out to 7/10 over the ten seasons.
Penrith’s superior recent finals record and defence almost get them home, but the Storm’s overall 2024 performance puts them just in front.
Other Grand Final Keys to Victory Stats
For ladder position 7/10 teams that win the Grand Final finished higher on the ladder. But that does improve to six times from the past seven seasons.
Melbourne’s H2H superiority this season doesn’t guarantee victory, as the record is 4-4 for Grand Final winners having the H2H advantage from before the Grand Final.
And they say that defence wins titles, and that may be true, but in our 2024 NRL Grand Final Keys to Victory it shows that the team that had the better defensive record (Points per Game Conceded) between the two sides in that season up until the Grand Final wins the big game only seven time from the past ten season, compared to nine times out of ten for the team with the better attacking record. The only team to defy that stat? Penrith in 2021.
That’s the 2024 NRL Grand Final Keys to Victory, feel free to argue or ignore. We’ll wait until Sunday to see who unlocks the door of destiny.
