More Premier League football coming this week, with the League Cup and FA Cup 5th Round boxed and buried, it is time to move onto our Premier League Week 29 Predictions and Preview.
Each week our preview includes just enough quick info and barely interesting stats to help you decide a winner. Or to provide just enough barely interesting information leading into the big weekend of football.
If you enjoy loads of stats and graphs with some opinion, then you will enjoy our full Premier League Week 29 Predictions and Preview.
More Reading: Our Fantasy Premier League Preview
Premier League Week 29 Predictions
GAME BY GAME PREVIEW
Here’s our match by match review and our own Premier League Predictions Week 28. With loads of stats as below. But keep in mind the following…
Match H2H are for the League fixtures only, because who knows what teams play in cups these days.
Our barely interesting facts are just that, barely interesting. But takes in all competitions and cups. Or whatever suits the stat.
LIVERPOOL v BOURNEMOUTH
SATURDAY 12:30pm
MATCH STATS
THOUGHTS & STUFF
A few weeks ago it would unthinkable that Liverpool could lose this, but after the party pooping win by Watford last weekend, hot on the heels of nearly getting beaten by West Ham you feel anything can happen. Trouble for Bournemouth with of lot of their lower rung competitors winner.
Why Liverpool Can Win….
For all the hype of the deserving Watford win, Liverpool have only lost one and drawn one game in the Premier League this season.
Liverpool are unbeaten against Bournemouth on a Saturday.
Liverpool are 5 goals better than their Expected Goals, Bournemouth are five goals less.
Liverpool have scored three times as many goals at home as Bournemouth have away. And throw in conceding less than a goal per game at home. Their two goals conceded v West Ham were the first goals conceded at home in five games.
Mo Salah has seven goals in five games v Bournemouth.
Bournemouth have lost eight of their last nine away games. And scored just five goals in their last 11 away games.
Why Bournemouth Can Win….
Because you can almost call Liverpool in a slump – first EPL loss, scraping home against bottom three sides before that, out of the FA Cup, Champions League loss.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Bournemouth have scored slightly more points against big six clubs (1.0) than non big six clubs (0.95)
Final Say:
Liverpool 5 Bournemouth 0
ARSENAL v WEST HAM
SATURDAY 3:00pm
MATCH STATS
THOUGHTS & STUFF
A week off for Arsenal from the Premier League, but they did manage to proceed in the FA Cup with the backups seeing off third tier Portsmouth. West Ham may have turned the corner after their Liverpool heroics and win over Southampton at home. They need to, it’s a big stadium for the Championship.
Why Arsenal Can Win….
Arsenal have a 100% record v West Ham in March in the last 20 seasons.
Arsenal average 2.0 points v the bottom six sides at home.
They have won eight of the last nine home games v West Ham.
West Ham have lost their last five games on the road, although the last three were against the top three.
Arsenal average 2.5 points per game this season against teams with a claret kit.
Why West Ham Can Win….
West Ham still have the best Shot on Target %.
They were competitive in their last home game v Liverpool.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Arsenal’s record against London clubs isn’t much better than West Ham’s – 1.14 average points v 1.00.
Final Say:
Arsenal 1 West Ham 1
SHEFFIELD UTD v NORWICH
SATURDAY 3:00pm
MATCH STATS
THOUGHTS & STUFF
Norwich’s big win over Leicester was a great result, but the sad fact is they remain last, and need at least five to seven wins to avoid relegation. Sheffield Utd were the team most tipped for relegation, so couldn’t be blamed if there was some smugness.
Why Sheffield Utd Can Win….
Because surely a Blade is more dangerous than a Canary. And they have nearly twice as many points.
Norwich average less than half a goal per game away.
Norwich average just 0.57 per game against sides from the mid of England.
Why Norwich Can Win….
Norwich have won more games at Sheffield Utd in the last 20 seasons than the Blades.
Barely Interesting Stat:
If Sheffield Utd have a set play, Norwich needn’t worry, as the Blades xG from set plays is the lowest in the league at 0.63.
Sheffield Utd have the fourth highest amount of FPL points this season at 1142, Norwich are last with 864.
Norwich (30) have been caught offside this season is exactly half as many times as Sheffield Utd.
Final Say:
Sheffield Utd 2 Norwich 0
SOUTHAMPTON v NEWCASTLE
SATURDAY 3:00pm
MATCH STATS
THOUGHTS & STUFF
Two sides not quite out of relegation trouble yet, and given the turnaround by most of the bottom six last weekend, winning will need to be maintained.
Why Southampton Can Win….
Southampton’s Expected Goals is almost double Newcastle (40.6 v 23.0)
Newcastle last won six games ago.
Newcastle are the only team under 10 for big chances created.
Why Newcastle Can Win….
Because they warmed up for this game by scoring multiple goals in the FA Cup midweek.
Newcastle have a mildly impressive record v striped kits this season – at 2.17 average points per game. Southampton’s is 1.67.
Newcastle also have a good record against south coast sides at 2.33 average points per game.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Newcastle and Southampton are the second worst / third worst teams for successful passes in the final third, Southampton double down with the stat, having the third worst number of unsuccessful long balls too.
Final Say:
Southampton 0 Newcastle 1
WOLVES v BRIGHTON
SATURDAY 3:00pm
MATCH STATS
THOUGHTS & STUFF
You could argue that Wolves deserve fourth place more than any other side. So consistent, so good, and very little Thursday night Europa moaning. They might just end up getting it too. Brighton are down the other end, and were the only side in the bottom six (that played) who didn’t avoid defeat.
Why Wolves Can Win….
Because they have two in form strikers. Brighton meanwhile had a pile of shots last weekend against Crystal Palace and blanked.
Brighton haven’t won any of their last six away games (3D 3L)
Wolves average 2.6 points per game v bottom six sides.
Why Brighton Can Win….
Brighton haven’t lost at Wolves in the past 20 seasons, a lot of draws, but no losses.
Wolves have a pattern of losing every third game at home across the last six games, and this pattern is due another L this weekend.
Why Draw Can Win….
100% of games in March have ended as a draw. And 80% of games at Wolves.
Lots of draws this season too. See below.
Barely Interesting Stat:
These two teams have drawn the second and third most this season. Almost half – 22 of the combined 55 games.
They have also had the same amount of shots – 346. Wolves on Target is slightly better, as is the goal scoring.
Final Say:
Wolves 1 Brighton 1
CRYSTAL PALACE v WATFORD
SATURDAY 3:00pm
MATCH STATS
THOUGHTS & STUFF
Good weekend for these London clubs, Crystal Palace beat their main rivals away and potentially seal a Premier League spot for next year. Watford did what no other team could do this season, and their reward was a ladder out of the bottom three.
Why Crystal Palace Can Win….
Crystal Palace have conceded only two more goals than Liverpool at home this season.
Palace have a decent average points return of 2.50 against bottom six sides.
Crystal Palace lead the v London teams stats – 1.29 average points per game v Watford’s 0.67.
Why Watford Can Win….
Because the Liverpool win should bring all the confidence in the world. Plus Crystal Palace might think they are safe-ish and take their eye off the ball.
If Sarr plays that well again.
Watford have won three of the last five games at Selhurst Park
Barely Interesting Stat:
It may not be a goal fest this weekend, Crystal Palace have scored 11 goals in 14 home games, and Watford have scored the same in their 14 away games.
Final Say:
Crystal Palace 0 Watford 2
BURNLEY v SPURS
SATURDAY 5:30pm
MATCH STATS
THOUGHTS & STUFF
Funny to think that a Burnley win here could see them overtake Spurs on the ladder.
Why Burnley Can Win….
Because Spurs are poor.
Burnley have the second longest current streak of being unbeaten – 6 games.
Burnley have the slightly better record v middle 8 sides.
Why Spurs Can Win….
Burnley average just 0.2 points per game v Big Six clubs.
Spurs are outperforming their Expected Goals by eight, Burnley are under by three.
Burnley average just 0.88 against London sides.
Spurs are unbeaten against claret shirts – actually 100% record.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Spurs won this game 5-0 earlier in the season, but Spurs have only managed to do the double over Burnley once in the past five seasons.
Final Say:
Burnley 2 Spurs 1
CHELSEA v EVERTON
SUNDAY 2:00pm
MATCH STATS
THOUGHTS & STUFF
Both sides drew last weekend, the one point from Chelsea allowing the tight race for fourth/fifth to tighten up a little more.
Why Chelsea Can Win….
Chelsea have a great record at home to Everton. See below.
Chelsea haven’t loss at home to Everton this century in the league.
Why Everton Can Win….
Everton haven’t lost to Chelsea in March in the last 20 seasons.
Everton have scored six goals in their last three trips to London clubs, which is over the average goals conceded by Chelsea at home this season.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Chelsea have never lost to Everton at home on a Sunday.
Both sides average 1.0 points per game v blue kits.
Final Say:
Chelsea 1 Everton 1
MAN UTD v MAN CITY
SUNDAY 4:30pm
MATCH STATS
THOUGHTS & STUFF
A Manchester derby with a little less fanfare than usual. Man City are safe in second and fighting UEFA, Man Utd are fighting to join the Champions League at Man City’s expense.
Why Man Utd Can Win….
Man Utd have an average points per game against the other big six clubs of 2.0, where Man City’s is a surprisingly low 1.17.
Man Utd have two wins and one draw against top six sides at home this season.
Why Man City Can Win….
The home side has a poor recent record in this fixture. See below.
The League Cup winners have won their next game after the final in four of the past five season. Coincidentally, the same applied to the losing finalist.
Man City have scored almost one more goal per game than Man Utd.
Barely Interesting Stat:
The home side have won just two of the last 12 clashes.
Final Say:
Man Utd 1 Man City 1
LEICESTER v ASTON VILLA
MONDAY 8:00pm
MATCH STATS
THOUGHTS & STUFF
Leicester ruined many an FPL side and their own chances when front man Jamie Vardy was a late withdrawal against Norwich, and they duly took zero points. Aston Villa did not embarrass themselves in the League Cup, but now the pressing concerns of Premier League survival are the focus. They have been Leicester recently in the League Cup semi finals.
Why Leicester Can Win….
Leicester have scored twice as many goals at home as Villa have away, and have conceded half as many goals as Villa have away. They also have twice as many points.
The Foxes have amassed an average 2.4 points per game v Claret kits this season.
Aston Villa have won one of their last ten away games.
Leicester have 2.67 points v Bottom Six sides at home, Aston Villa have zero points v top six away.
Why Aston Villa Can Win….
Four teams from the last five League Cup losing finalists have gone on to win their next Premier League game.
Because they have beaten Leicester in the League Cup recently.
Leicester’s recent home record isn’t great, one win in six. The home record v Aston Villa isn’t much better either with two wins from the last seven home matches v Aston Villa.
If Wilfred Ndidi doesn’t play.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Aston Villa currently have zero points against midlands sides and those with dog nicknames.
Final Say:
Leicester 2 Aston Villa 1
