With AI taking over the world and the Premier League now well underway, we are harnessing this new energy and putting it to good use for a change, by coming up with alternative ways of picking Premier League winners. You can always download stats, and analyse them to death, like we already have do every week with our proper preview, but why not do something different. So this week, given the controversy by VAR in the Manchester derby last weekend, AI is helping with Alternative AI Premier League Gameweek 5 Predictions by calculating which team has been luckier with VAR than the other and so more likely to win when VAR stuffs up this weekend at a game near you.
Each gameweek in this 2026-27 Premier League season we also offer up a proper stat filled prediction preview, with some barely interesting stats and visuals which can be found on the website.
Alternative AI Premier League Gameweek 5 Predictions
The background:
We asked out friendly AI bot the below question….”predict the winners and score of each match from gameweek 5 of the english premier league based on how much of an advantage and benefit teams have gained from the VAR video assistant referee decisions over the past five years”.
AI said:
This is a fun forecasting exercise, but it’s important to note that VAR history is a very weak predictor of future match results. Team quality, injuries, form, home advantage, and tactics matter far more. However, if we weight predictions partly by which clubs have historically gained the most from VAR over the last five seasons, some clubs receive a small “boost.” Recent studies suggest clubs such as Fulham, Brentford, and Newcastle United have generally been among the bigger beneficiaries of VAR, while clubs such as Wolverhampton Wanderers and, in some seasons, Arsenal and Bournemouth have tended to be on the wrong side of decisions more often. [sportbible.com], [espn.co.uk]
Using the confirmed Gameweek 5 fixtures for the 2026/27 Premier League season, here are my VAR-influenced predictions:
The results……
| Match | Predicted Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford vs Chelsea | Brentford | 2-1 |
| Tottenham vs Aston Villa | Tottenham | 2-1 |
| Brighton vs Arsenal | Arsenal | 2-0 |
| Everton vs Ipswich | Everton | 2-1 |
| Newcastle vs Hull | Newcastle | 3-0 |
| Nottingham Forest vs Coventry | Nottingham Forest | 2-0 |
| Bournemouth vs Liverpool | Liverpool | 2-1 |
| Leeds vs Crystal Palace | Draw | 1-1 |
| Manchester City vs Sunderland | Manchester City | 4-0 |
| Fulham vs Manchester United | Fulham | 2-1 |
Biggest VAR-based boosts in these predictions
Newcastle 3-0 Hull
Newcastle have recently recorded one of the strongest positive net VAR scores in the Premier League, making them one of the clubs most likely to benefit from marginal calls. Combined with home advantage, they are my strongest pick. [statista.com], [givemesport.com]
Brentford 2-1 Chelsea
Across the VAR era, Brentford have been among the largest net gainers from VAR interventions. Chelsea have experienced more mixed outcomes despite benefiting significantly in 2025/26. [sportbible.com], [tribuna.com]
Fulham 2-1 Manchester United
Fulham have consistently ranked near the top of VAR-benefit tables since VAR’s introduction, while United’s gains have generally been modest. [sportbible.com], [espn.co.uk]
Most likely results if VAR influence were ignored
If I removed the VAR weighting and focused purely on team strength, I’d lean slightly more toward:
- Chelsea over Brentford
- Manchester United over Fulham
- Arsenal beating Brighton by a narrower margin
- Liverpool beating Bournemouth comfortably
Predicted Gameweek 5 VAR Table Impact
- Newcastle (+)
- Fulham (+)
- Brentford (+)
- Manchester City (+)
- Tottenham (+)
Most likely to feel unlucky:
- Bournemouth (-)
- Arsenal (- historically, though still strong enough to win)
- Chelsea (-)
- Manchester United (-)
Highest-confidence predictions: Newcastle 3-0 Hull, Manchester City 4-0 Sunderland, Nottingham Forest 2-0 Coventry.
Upset prediction: Brentford 2-1 Chelsea.
Most likely draw: Leeds 1-1 Crystal Palace.
Alternative Premier League Predictions History
Each week we offer up the alternative Premier League predictions using AI, so it would be interesting to track the progress of AI v our regular tips, and to see if any AI options works better than others.
SEASON OVERALL
AI – 18/40
GURGLER – 20/40
WEEKLY HISTORY
GW1 – 5/10 – Alternative Premier League Predictions – First Gameweek Form
GW2 – 4/10 – GW1 Vibes from Fans
GW3 – 5/10 – Transfer Window Winners
GW4 – 2/10 – Premier League NFL Teams
