Discover the best football draw predictions with data-driven analysis, opinion, draw trends, and expert picks from England & Europe’s top leagues. And leagues that aren’t quite as top.
They say there can only be winners and losers in sport, but of course they’re wrong and they’re fools, there’s always another result, a special one for learned sporting fans – the draw. And who doesn’t love a draw where no one loses. The real winners include canny punters who look for value, and The Gurgler website is always happy to help with predictions, opinion and stats, so welcome to our Football Draw Predictions Weekly for another weekend of balanced football.
Our resident draw expert Frankington Stanley runs his keen eye over the many football divisions around the world to find the best draws for you. He’s sort of like the John West of Football draws, he hates Dog Salmon and lop-sided fixtures. The fewer the goals the better too.
Frankington Stanley is not fussy, no country or continent is out of bounds, and the more obscure the better. And some of them are quite obscure, just the way he likes it. So enjoy another weekly serving of the finest Football Draws Predictions from all over the world, where The Gurgler and Frankington Stanley take the stale out of stalemate.
Football Draw Predictions Weekly
DRAW OF THE WEEK
England » League Two – 2026/2027 » Colchester-Walsall
Kick off: 15:00 Date: Sat, 31-Oct-26
Stats: It’s good enough that our draw of the week comes from the division with the highest draw % this season. Then factor in that four of the past five games between these sides at Colchester have ended in a draw. Not enough for you? How about Colchester are unbeaten at home this season, but have drawn their last three. More? Well Walsall have drawn their last five away games, the last three being 1-1.
Prediction: Colchester 1 Walsall 1
OTHER FOOTBALL DRAW PREDICTIONS
England » Premier League – 2026/2027 » Liverpool-Arsenal
Kick off: 16:30 Date: Sun, 01-Nov-26
Stats: Big games in the Premier League always feel like they’re going to be draws, and following our draw analysis below, Sundays are a prime day for the draw. Plus, three of the last four games between Liverpool and Arsenal ended in a draw. Even more, four of the last five games between these sides at Liverpool have ended in a draw.
Prediction: Liverpool 1 Arsenal 1
England » Championship – 2026/2027 » Millwall-Derby
Kick off: 15:00 Date: Sat, 31-Oct-26
Stats: Two of the last three games between these sides at Millwall were draw, 1-1 in fact. Three of the last six games between these sides at either ground were draws too, all 1-1. Millwall’s last three home form is LDL, while Derby’s away form is DLD. Both of Derby’s draws were 1-1.
Prediction: Millwall 1 Derby 1
England » Championship – 2026/2027 » Stoke-Preston
Kick off: 12:30 Date: Sat, 31-Oct-26
Stats: The second last, third last and fourth last games between these sides were draws. And both clubs aren’t necessarily known for being the most fun football teams in the world. Stoke drew 0-0 in their last home game. Preston’s one draw is a highlight from their 6 away games so far this season.
Prediction: Stoke 0 Preston 0
Egypt » Premier League – 2026/2027 » Olympic El Qanah FC-Al Sharkeyah-ENPPI
Kick off: 18:00 Date: Fri, 30-Oct-26
Stats: Olympic El Qanah FC have three draws from three home games this season – all of them 1-1. Their opponents Al Sharkeyah-ENPPI aren’t travelling that well sitting 17th of 20 teams on the ladder with a W1 D1 L5 record, with the one draw at least coming on the road from three away games.
Prediction: Olympic El Qanah FC 0 Al Sharkeyah-ENPPI 0
Italy » Serie A – 2026/2027 » Frosinone-Torino
Kick off: 14:00 Date: Sun, 01-Nov-26
Stats: Both games finished 0-0 last season. And it’s on a Sunday, the best day for draws.
Prediction: Frosinone 0 Torino 0
DRAW STATS & PREDICTIONS
Want and need to know about which leagues draw the most in case of selections above aren’t enough? Of course you do, and so here are the draw % results from the past three seasons.
| Rank | League | Draw % |
| 1 | League Two | 34.44% |
| 2 | Premier League | 28.75% |
| 3 | League One | 28.67% |
| 4 | Championship | 27.78% |
| 5 | Eredivisie | 27.78% |
| 6 | La Liga | 27.27% |
| 7 | Ligue 1 | 26.39% |
| 8 | Ekstraklasa | 22.64% |
| 9 | Primeira Liga | 22.22% |
| 10 | Bundesliga | 20.63% |
| 11 | National League | 17.71% |
| 12 | Serie A | 17.05% |
Key observations
- League Two is currently the clear draw leader at 34.44%, meaning roughly 1 in every 3 matches ends level. [fbref.com], [matchcalen…r.football]
- The English leagues are generally producing more draws than the major continental leagues this season.
- Serie A and the National League are currently the least draw-prone competitions among the leagues successfully calculated.
- The Premier League, League One, Championship, and League Two all sit above the traditional long-run European average of around 25-27%.
AI Football Draw Predictions
For all the effort we put in at The Gurgler, AI can do it in about ten seconds, so why not harness the power of AI and go Head to Head against it for the Football season.
| Rank | Match | League | Predicted Score | Draw Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brentford vs Nottingham Forest | Premier League | 1-1 | 35% [premierleague.com], [nine.com.au] |
| 2 | Swansea City vs Blackburn Rovers | Championship | 1-1 | 35% [treblestats.co.uk] |
| 3 | Millwall vs Derby County | Championship | 1-1 | 34% [treblestats.co.uk] |
| 4 | Stoke City vs Preston North End | Championship | 1-1 | 34% [treblestats.co.uk] |
| 5 | Mansfield Town vs Notts County | League One | 1-1 | 34% [treblestats.co.uk] |
| 6 | Port Vale vs Rochdale | League Two | 1-1 | 33% [treblestats.co.uk] |
| 7 | Colchester vs Walsall | League Two | 1-1 | 33% [treblestats.co.uk] |
| 8 | Leyton Orient vs Cambridge United | League One | 1-1 | 33% [treblestats.co.uk] |
| 9 | Norwich City vs Watford | Championship | 2-2 | 32% [treblestats.co.uk] |
| 10 | Chelsea vs Manchester United | Premier League | 1-1 | 32% [premierleague.com], [nine.com.au] |
GENERAL DRAW ANALYSIS
Which Day of the Week produces more Draws?
Ever wanted to know which day sees more draws according to our research and AI’s help?
The answer is Sunday.
There is no widely published Europe-wide dataset that breaks down draw rates by day of the week across all major leagues, so any answer is necessarily based on long-term fixture scheduling patterns rather than an official UEFA statistic.
For the major leagues in England and Europe (Premier League, Championship, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Primeira Liga, Eredivisie, etc.), I would rank them as follows:
| Rank | Match Slot | Likelihood of Draw |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sunday games (any time) | Highest |
| 2 | Monday-Thursday games | High |
| 3 | Friday night games | Slightly above average |
| 4 | Saturday night games | Around average |
| 5 | Saturday day games | Lowest |
Why Sunday games tend to produce more draws
- Sunday fixtures often feature:
- Derby matches.
- Matches between stronger teams selected for television.
- Clubs managing player fatigue after European competition.
- Games between evenly matched opponents naturally generate more drawn results than mismatched fixtures.
- Across Europe’s major leagues, roughly one quarter of matches end in a draw, with many top divisions sitting around the 24-29% range.
Why Monday-Thursday games rank highly
- These are usually:
- TV-selected fixtures.
- Rescheduled matches.
- Derby or high-interest encounters.
- Teams often take a more cautious approach in standalone televised games.
Friday night games
- Slightly higher draw tendency because:
- Teams are usually well-rested.
- Managers sometimes prioritize avoiding defeat at the start of a matchweek.
- Many leagues use Friday nights for competitive, relatively balanced fixtures.
Saturday night games
- Mixed profile.
- Can include both title contenders and mid-table clashes.
- Generally sit close to the league average draw rate.
Why Saturday daytime games are usually lowest
- This is where most fixtures are played.
- The fixture pool contains the greatest number of mismatched games (top vs bottom, promotion contenders vs strugglers, etc.).
- More mismatches generally means more winners and fewer draws.
If I had to assign a rough draw probability to each slot
| Match Slot | Typical Draw Probability |
|---|---|
| Sunday | 28-31% |
| Monday-Thursday | 27-30% |
| Friday Night | 26-29% |
| Saturday Night | 25-28% |
| Saturday Day | 23-26% |
For draw betting, many professional football analysts specifically target Sunday fixtures involving mid-table teams, as these often feature the most balanced matchups and historically produce a slightly above-average draw frequency. The underlying baseline is that most major European leagues record draw rates of roughly one in four matches (about 25-30%).
Why Local Derbies Produce More Draws
Yes, historical data shows that local derbies in English football produce a higher proportion of draws than regular matches.
Long-term statistical studies of the Premier League and English Football League (EFL) reveal several key factors explaining why local rivalries lean towards stalemates:
Key Statistical Trends in Derbies
Higher Draw Frequency: In multi-decade studies of Premier League fixtures, derby matches have consistently yielded a higher draw rate compared to non-derby games. While standard league fixtures historically end in a draw roughly 24%–26% of the time, that figure rises in local derby match-ups.
Lower Goal Returns: Derby matches produce slightly fewer goals on average than non-derby fixtures. The tighter, more cagey nature of these games leads to a higher frequency of low-scoring draws (0{-}0 and 1{-}1).
Higher Disciplinary Action: Derbies average roughly one-third more booking points (yellow and red cards) than typical league fixtures, reflecting higher aggression and tactical fouling that interrupts the flow of play.
Why Derbies End in Draws More Often
1. Tactical Conservatism & “Fear of Losing”: For managers, players, and supporters, losing a local derby causes significant psychological fallout. As a result, teams often prioritize defensive stability and avoiding defeat over taking excessive risks to win.
2. Narrowing Quality Gaps: Form and league standing often lose predictive power in derbies. The underperforming or weaker team frequently plays above their usual standard due to heightened emotion, while the stronger side faces intense pressure, causing the performance levels of both teams to converge.
3. Reduced Home Advantage: Because derby rivals are based in the same city or neighboring towns, away teams face less travel fatigue, and away fan presence is often more vocal and aggressive than in standard away fixtures. This slightly dampens the standard home-field edge.
