Rugby League’s showcase event – the State of Origin has rolled around again, with Origin bolters selected, barbs in the media thrown, social media ablaze with keyboard warriors arguing about which coach has picked a worse side, and the realisation that we all have to suffer Channel Nein together. And here is overcomplicate a simple battle between two great sporting sides and cultures is The Gurgler with our 2026 State of Origin Game 1 Stats.
We’ve got enough State of Origin data in our trusty old spreadsheet to come up with a bunch of interesting stats, plus we use all of those stats to come up with a ratings system which not only gives a H2H rating and pick a winner, but give the score in advance so we can all load up own Sportsbet.
There’s something for everyone, except for those who don’t like rugby league or State of Origin. Your loss.
2026 State of Origin Game 1 Ratings & Score Predictor
Here’s where we use all the stats we’ve compiled for later, measured each side’s record against the other, worked out how many points the game will likely see, and then share our H2H Ratings and score prediction.
So Queensland to win by 20-18 in a tight first match of the series. Queensland have the upper hand because of the overall H2H and they have handy Game 1 form. NSW unsurprisingly have the upper hand in Sydney and with scoring points.
Note: Back to Back at Same Venue is where the ground has seen back-to-back games, not necessarily in the same series. Like 2024 and 2025 where Lang Park hosted G3 of 2024 and G1 of 2025.
2026 State of Origin Game 1 Stats
BEST OF ORIGIN STATS
- Queensland have won the last four State of Origin matches where Game One was played at the Sydney Olympic Stadium. NSW have scored ten points in three of those games and four points in the other.
- There have been five years where the game location follows this year’s sequence – Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane – and NSW lead the H2H by 3-2, with Queensland being the last state to do it.
- Queensland have won the last two games at the Sydney Olympic venue and three of the last four.
- NSW lead Queensland 8-6 where the ground has hosted back to back games.
- The losing side has scored either 10 or 12 in the last five games at the Sydney Olympic Stadium.
- Of the 11 times the Sydney Olympic Stadium has hosted Game One of an Origin series, the total points scored has passed 36 just twice.
- The last two years has seen the Game One winner lose the series.
BEST OF ORIGIN STAT VISUALS – GAME ONE STATS
Queensland have a slight edge for Game One, and their record in the first match of an Origin series in Sydney is ok. Their record for Game One in Sydney is very good recently.
BEST OF ORIGIN STAT VISUALS – GROUND STATS
Queensland have won the last two games at the Sydney Olympic venue and their record there recently isn’t as bad as you’d imagine.
BEST OF ORIGIN STAT VISUALS – EVENTUAL SERIES WINNER STATS
The above stats show that if Queensland win Game One, they are way more likely to go on and win the series.
BEST OF ORIGIN STAT VISUALS – FIRST / LAST TRY SCORER STATS
STATE OF ORIGIN FIRST/LAST TRY SCORERS SINCE 2005
NRL 2026 SEASON FIRST/LAST TRY SCORERS BY POSITION
