NRL | 2026 NRL Round 9 Ratings and Final Word

Been too distracted by PNG Chief Signings? Feeling sorry for the Melbourne Storm? Do you need some last-minute NRL tipping advice? Or simply want something else to blame when the tips go wrong? Either way, The Gurgler’s 2026 NRL Round 9 Ratings and Late Mail is here to deliver a little help.

In addition to our huge stable of NRL stats and tipping gear, we have used all the stats we have, smashed them against each other like atoms, and come up with a H2H rating as dangerous to the outside world as Chernobyl.

We include lots of things, and add to it as the season progresses, come up with a magic number for each team, then slice up the scores out of 100% between the two sides. The bigger the percentage, the more likely to win.

This week we added the split to whether the side is winning through stats (historic H2H, day, ground record) or form (2026 form split into various ways).

2026 NRL Round 9 Ratings

Here are the latest H2H ratings and winners for the big weekend of NRL action ahead. 

2026 NRL Round 9 Ratings Stats – Form v H2H

2026 NRL Round 9 Final Word + Good v Grape

Now we go through every game pointing out the good and the grape (a different way of saying not so great). Be it stats, players ins and outs, or any word on the street we can share. Then finish with our final word.

FRIDAY 6PM – BULLDOGS v NORTH QUEENSLAND @ Accor Stadium

Good: North Queensland have won seven of their past nine away games v Bulldogs. Bulldogs have won the last four games v Cowboys on a Friday, but the last one was in 2019. Cowboys record away to Sydney teams in recent seasons is better than you think. Since 2024 it’s W10 L8.

Grape: Viliame Kikau is out for the Bulldogs, and their form has seen some ins and out all over the team. Bulldogs are 1/5 in recent weeks. Bulldogs have lost six Friday games in a row too. Murray Taulagi is out, but Jeremiah Nanai is promoted to the starting side.

Final Word: Not being able to beat two injury ravaged teams in consecutive weeks is hardly the form to bring into this game for the Bulldogs, especially one where they are playing a team with such a better recent record against them in the Cowboys. Although, the Cowboys only ever seem one loss away from sacking their coach.

FRIDAY 8PM – DOLPHINS v MELBOURNE @ Suncorp Stadium

Good: Dolphins won this game at Suncorp Stadium last season. Ray Stone scored twice. Four of his nine tries have come against the Storm. Melbourne have won 14 of their last 16 away to Qld sides on a Friday – but only one of their last three. Trai Fuller’s form in his first 2026 start last weekend.

Grape: Melbourne’s six game losing streak. Dolphins four game losing streak. Having to face an angry Melbourne side on a six game losing streak when you’re on a four-game losing streak yourself.  Dolphins have a poor record at Suncorp Stadium on a Friday – W2 L7. Melbourne have lost eight of their last ten games away on a Friday. Melbourne have lost their last three at Suncorp Stadium. Melbourne (72% win rate) still have a better record at Suncorp Stadium than Brisbane (59%). Both sides missing a key half with Jake Averillo out for Dolphins and Jahrome Hughes for Storm.

Final Word: Both teams are coming into this on a losing streak, Dolphins’ lack of form is slightly better than the Storm and you could argue that the Dolphins are at least getting close and playing better. It’s at Suncorp Stadium though, where Melbourne used to be unbeatable. But they were that just about everywhere before this run.

SATURDAY 3PM – GOLD COAST v CANBERRA

Good: Canberra have won six in a row v Gold Coast and 11 of the last 12 matches. AJ Brimson returns for the Titans. One of the form players this season in Simi Sasagi returns.

Grape: It’s five straight losses for Gold Coast as the home side to Canberra, with a last win in 2018 (one loss was a Covid era match at Kogarah). Canberra aren’t great away from home v Qld teams – Canberra have won only four of their last 13 away games v Qld sides. Gold Coast come off the bye – they lost all three games in 2025 after the bye.

Final Word: Who knows how this will play out. Stats favour Canberra in the H2H, but neither side is playing the house down. Could just flip a coin or find a responsible wager.

SATURDAY 5:30PM – PARRAMATTA v WAHS

Good: Parramatta have won six of their last seven games v Wahs. The Wahs are better on a Saturday – Wahs have won three of the last four on a Saturday v Eels. Parra are decent on a Saturday though – Parramatta have a good recent home record on a Saturday. Since 2019 it is W14 L2 at CommBank Stadium and Parramatta are W5 L1 at CommBank Stadium on a Saturday v non-Sydney teams. Luke Metcalf returns via the bench at the moment.

Grape: Warriors have lost their last three away to Sydney teams. Parramatta have lost four of their last five games this season. Mitch Barnett is out for the Warriors.

Final Word: The Wahs are back on track with three straight wins, while Parramatta have won 1/5. The Warriors aren’t as bad away from home as they used to be, perhaps an upside of Covid. But Parramatta have a great recent H2H record v Wahs so this might be closer than you’d think on form.

SATURDAY 7:30PM – ROOSTERS v BRISBANE

Good: Brisbane have won the last two games v Roosters at the Sydney Football Stadium. And the last two Saturday games. Roosters have won nine games in a row on a Saturday v Qld sides. Note: none of those games were v Brisbane. Brisbane have won four of their last five on the road to Sydney teams on a Saturday and the Broncos are one of two unbeaten away teams this season. Pat Carrigan and Reece Walsh return.

Grape: Not much.

Final Word: Premium clash, Roosters in form with four wins in a row, Broncos have won consecutive games with a massively depleted team. They get some of their stars back this weekend to give them a boost. They will need it.

SUNDAY 2PM – NEWCASTLE v SOUTH SYDNEY

Good: Newcastle have won the last three games v Souths and Newcastle are W6 L1 v Souths at McDonald Jones Stadium on a Sunday since 1998. Souths have won their last two away games on a Sunday, although both were v Qld teams. Kalyn Ponga and Bradman Best return for the Knights.

Grape: Newcastle in general are a bit ordinary at home – they have won just one of their last six games on a Sunday at McDonald Jones Stadium, plus Newcastle have won two of their last 14 games at McDonald Jones Stadium on any day.

Final Word: Hopefully for Rabbitohs fans Souths haven’t peaked with their breakthrough Melbourne victory last weekend. Newcastle have got some good H2H stats vs Souths to make it a danger worthy game.

SUNDAY 4PM – CRONULLA v WESTS TIGERS

Good: Cronulla are good at home – they have won their last five games at Shark Park v Wests Tigers, they have won eight games straight at Shark Park on a Sunday and won four in a row on a Sunday. Wests Tigers aren’t bad on a Sunday either Wests Tigers have won four of their last five on a Sunday and won their last three games on a Sunday v Sydney teams.

Grape: The Tigers have won their last two away games, but away form is very patchy before that.

Final Word: Cronulla have a great record at home and on a Sunday, and it will be interesting to see how the Jarome Luai PNG news will affect the Tigers.

SUNDAY 6:15PM – PENRITH v MANLY @ CommBank Stadium

Good: Manly haven’t lost under Kieran Foran yet and have won two of the last three v Penrith including the last match at CommBank Stadium. Plus it’s four away wins in a row too. But Penrith are so good, and on a Sunday – Penrith have won the last three games v Manly on a Sunday they have won 11 of their last 12 on a Sunday plus won 13 of their last 14 home on a Sunday.

Grape: Manly have lost four of their last five games away on a Sunday.

Final Word: Could be a great clash with both teams in good form. You’d think Penrith’s aura gets them across the line.

Other 2026 NRL Round 9 Preview & Round 8 Review Stuff