NRL | 2026 NRL Round 8 Ratings and Final Word

Been too distracted by injury lists? Been too crowded on the train trying to save fuel to read the form guide? Do you need some last-minute NRL tipping advice? Or simply want something else to blame when the tips go wrong? Either way, The Gurgler’s 2026 NRL Round 8 Ratings and Late Mail is here to deliver a little help.

In addition to our huge stable of NRL stats and tipping gear, we have used all the stats we have, smashed them against each other like atoms, and come up with a H2H rating as dangerous to the outside world as Chernobyl.

We include lots of things, and add to it as the season progresses, come up with a magic number for each team, then slice up the scores out of 100% between the two sides. The bigger the percentage, the more likely to win.

And always, Win Early, Win Often.

2026 NRL Round 8 Ratings

Here are the latest H2H ratings and winners for the big weekend of NRL action ahead. 

2026 NRL Round 8 Final Word + Good v Grape

Now we go through every game pointing out the good and the grape (a different way of saying not so great). Be it stats, players ins and outs, or any word on the street we can share. Then finish with our final word.

THU 7:50PM – WESTS TIGERS v CANBERRA @ Leichhardt Oval

Good: Canberra are getting their season back on track with two straight wins. They have a great recent record v Tigers too – going back to 2016, Canberra have won 14 of the last 16 games v Wests Tigers.

Grape: Hudson Young is out suspended and Josh Papalii is out for two months with injury. Young in particular has been one of their best. Simi Sasagi is also reportedly out too. Wests Tigers really should have beaten the injury-depleted Broncos last weekend.

Final Word: Canberra’s record against the Tigers and recent wins leans you towards a Raiders win, but Canberra are or could be missing two of their best this season in Hudson Young and Simi Sasagi and would want to make up for not beating the Broncos last weekend.

FRI 6PM – NORTH QUEENSLAND v CRONULLA

Good: Cronulla’s record v North Queensland – they have won 14 of the last 16. Cronulla’s Friday record – Cronulla have won 13 of their last 16 Friday games and Cronulla have won their last four away games to Qld sides on a Friday. Three key returning players for the Cowboys – Murray Taulagi, Reed Mahoney and Jeremiah Nanai. Sharks hard-working forward Cameron McInnes returns to the bench.

Grape: North Queensland’s record at home v Cronulla – North Queensland have only won once in their last seven home games v Cronulla. With Shane Flanagan gone, the heat’s back on Todd Payten for the next sacked.

Final Word: Cronulla’s recent dominance over the Cowboys and the fact it took only one Cowboys loss and a Flanagan sacking to put Todd Payten under pressure again gives the Sharks the tick of approval.

FRI 8PM – BRISBANE v BULLDOGS

Brisbane have won seven of their last eight v Bulldogs.

Good: Xavier Willison. Broncos recent record over the Dogs is good too – Brisbane have won seven of their last eight v Bulldogs, Brisbane have won four of their last five v Bulldogs on a Friday. Brisbane have won eight of their last nine v Bulldogs at Suncorp Stadium. Corey Paix returns for Broncos, so they have one experienced hooker.

Grape: Payne Haas (knee) and Corey Jensen (pulmonary embolism) join the injury list, and Jesse Arthars and Kotoni Staggs will be monitored for niggles after last weekend’s win over the Tigers. The Dogs being unable to beat a injury-ridden Eels last weekend.

Final Word: The Broncos have even more players out this week, and the Bulldogs face a severely depleted team for the second week in a row. But the Broncos have such a good record last weekend and were so good last weekend while the Bulldogs weren’t. It leans towards Broncos doing it again.

SAT 4PM – ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA v ROOSTERS @ Allianz Stadium

Good: The Roosters have won the last three Anzac Day clashes v Dragons. But good news for the Dragons is the listed home side (either team) have won eight of the last nine Anzac Day clashes. Resting Kyle Flanagan works too.

Grape: Dragons have lost five in a row at Allianz Stadium in general. Sacking their coach isn’t going to turn around seven straight losses, or looking at Manly, maybe it does.

Final Word: It’s hard to pick a team that has lost all seven games this season and 11 in a row. Especially when it was reported the club weren’t overly keen on the back-up coach.

SAT 6:05PM – WAHS v DOLPHINS @ Hnry Stadium, Wellington

Good: The away side has won five of the six clashes between Warriors and Dolphins. Late mail suggests a backline shuffle that should excite – Jake Averillo to five eighth and Trai Fuller in at centre or fullback.

Grape: Warriors are W2 L2 in Wellington. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad is out for the Warriors. Overall the Warriors home record in New Zealand but not at Mt Smart Stadium is W5 L10.

Final Word: Wahs are back to their best, but the Dolphins showed glimpses of their 2025 best in the second half v Penrith last weekend. Maybe this is a classic in waiting, especially when the word on the street is Tramplin’ Trai Fuller could get full game time.

SAT 8:10PM – MELBOURNE v SOUTH SYDNEY

Good: Melbourne’s Anzac Day record – Melbourne have won their last ten Anzac Day clashes v Warriors/Rabbitohs. Souths have won six of their last seven away on a Saturday v non-Sydney clubs.

Grape: South Sydney have never won in Melbourne in 20 attempts. Souths on a Saturday in Melbourne the Rabbitohs’ record is W0 L10, and they average less than 8 points. Melbourne though aren’t very good at home on a Saturday v Sydney clubs – since 2021 it’s only W4 L9. Melbourne have lost five in a row for the second time in their history, and a sixth loss would be historic.

Final Word: It’s a stats v form game. If Melbourne lose this one, they are officially in big trouble.

SUN 2PM – NEWCASTLE v PENRITH

Good: Penrith have won 11 of the last 12 games v Newcastle with the only blip a loss to the Knights in Bathurst last season. Going back to 2014 it’s W18 L3 to Penrith. Penrith have won eight in a row v Newcastle on a Sunday with a last loss in 2014. Penrith have won eight in a row v Newcastle in Newcastle with a last loss in 2015. Casey McLean is back.

Grape: Newcastle won their last home game in Newcastle v Canberra in Round 5 this season, but prior to that they won just one of 12.

Final Word: Penrith got a scare last weekend in Darwin after their shock loss against the Bulldogs the weekend before. But Penrith are Penrith, and their record v Newcastle and in general speaks for itself.

SUN 4PM – MANLY v PARRAMATTA

Good: The home side (either team) have won the last six games between Manly and Parramatta. Manly have won the last three and seven of the last eight home games v Parramatta.

Grape: Manly have won just one of their last four at home on a Sunday. Parramatta have lost their last seven away Sunday games, and their last four away on a Sunday to Sydney teams. Parramatta have also lost their last six away games on any day v Sydney teams. No Tom Trbojevic.

Final Word: Manly are still riding high on the Foran Express, while Parramatta should be full of confidence after their unexpected big win against the Bulldogs last weekend. We reckon the new coach bounce has a little more left in it.

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