It’s the final week of the Intrust Super Cup regular season and there’s still much to decide, so our Intrust Super Cup Round 17 Preview & Stats is your brief accompaniment to the weekend action.
But first looking back to last weekend and there was plenty happening. A few upsets, not one but two 26 all draws, and two of the three games on Sunday ended 24-16, but the third team to lose also scored 16 points. One for the numbers fans. Plus all the key battles still remain going into the final round except for Minor Premiers.
Back to our weekly preview, which features expert tips from Intrust Super CEO Brendan O’Farrell, Intrust Super Cup man of knowledge Matt Crowhurst, and us.
There’s also stats for H2H, for the 2021 season, and various points of interest and barely interesting facts.
Probably more than one could ever need or want.
Don’t forget you can watch two of the games these days on Kayo Freebies or via the QRL website
2021 Intrust Super Cup Round 17 Tips
As ever, we have attempted to get some expert tips to accompany each weekly preview.
This season we feature no less than the CEO of competition sponsor Intrust Super Brendan O’Farrell for another season. We also have tips from Intrust Super Cup guru Matt Crowhurst who knows a lot more than most about Queensland’s premier rugby league competition.
Less interesting is that we also supply our own tips.
BRENDAN O’FARRELL – CEO INTRUST SUPER
WYNNUM SEAGULLS to beat Townsville Blackhawks
TWEED HEADS SEAGULLS to beat PNG Hunters
BURLEIGH BEARS to beat Northern Pride
TIGERS to beat Mackay Cutters
NORTHS DEVILS to beat Ipswich Jets
SUNSHINE COAST FALCONS to beat Central Capras
REDCLIFFE DOLPHINS to beat Souths Logan Magpies
MATT CROWHURST – ISC GURU
Coming soon
THE GURGLER – MEDIOCRE WEBSITE
TOWNSVILLE BLACKHAWKS to beat Wynnum Seagulls
TWEED HEADS SEAGULLS to beat PNG Hunters
BURLEIGH BEARS to beat Northern Pride
TIGERS to beat Mackay Cutters
NORTHS DEVILS to beat Ipswich Jets
SUNSHINE COAST FALCONS to beat Central Capras
REDCLIFFE DOLPHINS to beat Souths Logan Magpies
CURRENT LEADERBOARD
BRENDAN O’FARRELL – Season 63% 71/112 – Last Round 0/7
MATT CROWHURST – Season 63% 51/81 – Last Round 0/7
THE GURGLER – Season 63% 71/112 – Last Week 1/7
2021 Intrust Super Cup Current Ladder
Why have an ordinary ladder you can get from a better website? Here is our home-made current Intrust Super Cup Ladder. Colour coded to spot the stats and for extra enjoyment.
2021 Intrust Super Cup Final Series
The Intrust Super Cup Finals Series start next weekend and involves a top eight and runs similar to the NRL.
But if you need to know more, follow this from the QRL website.
Intrust Super Cup Finals Series
2021 Intrust Super Cup Round 17 Stats & Match by Match Preview
Here is where we go through each game on offer this weekend with the teams, stats and points of interest to get into your local team this weekend.
This Week’s Teams originally published on QRL website.
SATURDAY 12:00PM TOWNSVILLE BLACKHAWKS v WYNNUM SEAGULLS
THOUGHTS & STATS
Wynnum still remain second despite losing to competition leaders Norths last weekend, but the race for second is even tighter after the other candidates for second either drew (Tweed Heads) or lost (Redcliffe, Burleigh). This now means all four teams are on 22 points.
The Seagulls are ahead of the pack with the superior for and against, but Townsville in Townsville is a tough game. And Wynnum have only won once there.
Plus their record v top eight sides this season isn’t great. Although it is still better than Townsville’s record v top eight sides.
Blackhawks come into the game in far superior form with their only loss in eight games coming against Norths.
Wynnum, who were the competition’s early front runner, have now lost four of their last six games. Their last win against a current top eight side was in Round Four which was several lockdowns ago.
PREDICTION
Townsville by 4
SATURDAY 2:10PM PNG HUNTERS v TWEED HEADS SEAGULLS
TV GAME – KAYO FREEBIES / QRL WEBSITE
THOUGHTS & STATS
Finally some joy for the PNG Hunters who just held on against the Capras in Rockhampton last weekend. Although it looked like a third straight draw was going to play out, after the first two games of the weekend ended 26-26.
The Hunters have looked good since the competition resumed, and just a shame they aren’t a little closer to the top eight.
There’s a good base to build on for 2022, the halves pairing of Ase Boas and Charlie Simon seems to be working by season’s end. Edwin Ipape consolidated his reputation as a spark for the Hunters, Terry Wapi is a great finisher, and the relatively unknown players coming into the new season – Epel Kapinias and Solo Wane – will finish the season with enhanced reputations.
Hopefully they can either play out of PNG again next season with Covid a past memory, or they are more accustomed to playing at Runaway Bay and can avoid too much pre-season quarantine like in 2021. Being based back in PNG may give them greater flexibility to bring in more Digicel Cup players. We’d love to see Stanley Olo back.
Back to this game and the H2H is in the Hunters favour with the Hunters winning three of the last four, but Tweed Heads are in the better form this season and are looking to win to grab second spot. They are 45 points behind in For and Against to Wynnum but on equal points.
But if both Gold Coast teams win and Wynnum lose it could be an all Gold Coast final in the first week.
Looking at the above visual Tweed Heads have won 100% of their games against the bottom six this season, while PNG have just the one win over the Northern Pride from all of their games v top eight opposition.
One stat going for the Hunters is the Seagulls record on the Gold Coast v sides based on the Gold Coast. So this one is basically v Burleigh (as Hunters only based on GC this season and these teams are yet to play in 2021) but is bad reading for the Tweed, as they have won just one of their last 10 matches on the Gold Coast v Gold Coast based teams.
It is the TV game, so why not tune in for your last glimpse of the PNG Hunters this season. Tweed will keep playing for a few more weeks yet.
PREDICTION
Tweed Heads by 10
SATURDAY 5:30PM NORTHERN PRIDE v BURLEIGH BEARS
THOUGHTS & STATS
A couple of surprise results for both of these sides last weekend. The Pride getting a win at Redcliffe and Burleigh’s lesser away form continuing with a loss on the Sunshine Coast. If only this game was at home with their 100% record. The Bears have been unlucky with the draw since the resumption of the competition with their three remaining games all being away.
The Pride need to win or hope the Falcons lose this weekend as their -7 points difference doesn’t quite stack up to the Falcons (currently 9th two points behind) +56 if they end on equal points.
Looking back at the Bears recent results they follow a pattern. Their last 12 games has seen them win five then lose the sixth game twice. This bodes well for winning this weekend, and every other game including the Grand Final.
The Bears hold the H2H record over the Pride 5-4, but the Pride lead 3-1 in Cairns. Burleigh did win the last one in Cairns 43-0 however.
But the Northern Pride haven’t fared well in North Queensland against sides based on the Gold Coast. A loss to Burleigh would make it 0/3 after losses to Tweed Heads and the Hunters up north this season.
A few more points of interest is both sides have poor records this season at home/away v top eight sides. And Burleigh have won 17/19 of their Saturday games going back to 2019.
PREDICTION
Burleigh by 6
SATURDAY 6:00PM TIGERS v MACKAY CUTTERS
THOUGHTS & STATS
A good weekend for both of these teams last week with a draw breaking a long, nine game losing streak for the Tigers, and a third win in five games for the Cutters. Both results mean these two teams are safe from finishing last in 2021.
There’s a lot going for the Tigers here, with a healthy H2H advantage over the Cutters, and they are unbeaten in six games v Mackay in Brisbane.
Mackay haven’t won a game in Brisbane since May 2018 and they are currently on an eight game losing streak in Brisbane v Brisbane sides.
Tigers also have a sensational record at home to North or Central Queensland teams with just two losses in 22 games at Langlands Park since 2014 v Pride, Blackhawks, Cutters & Capras.
PREDICTION
Tigers by 8
SATURDAY 7:00PM IPSWICH JETS v NORTHS DEVILS
THOUGHTS & STATS
With Norths eight points clear on top the focus on this game is Ipswich avoiding last, and the Jets sit just one point above the Capras who play the Sunshine Coast on the Sunday. A win puts last out of reach.
But a win looks hard for the Jets if you look at relative form of each side this season v top/bottom sides. Norths are unbeaten this season on sides currently in the bottom six. Ipswich are winless for matches involving the top eight.
The home record of the Jets doesn’t seem to help either, winning just one of eight games at North Ipswich Reserve this season and have lost eight in a row v Brisbane teams at home.
Meanwhile Norths have a 100% record away this season
PREDICTION
Norths by 20
SUNDAY 2:00PM SUNSHINE COAST FALCONS v CENTRAL CAPRAS
THOUGHTS & STATS
Both of these teams need to win for different reasons. The Falcons need the two points and a Northern Pride loss to make the finals. Central Capras are one point behind Ipswich in last. A draw may help the Capras but not Falcons.
What does help the Sunshine Coast is the overall H2H and H2H on a Sunday. The Capras have just one win in the last ten games v Sunshine Coast, and they have yet to beat the Falcons on a Sunday.
The Falcons have a superior record against the bottom six teams as above.
The Capras aren’t without hope as they beat the Tigers in Brisbane earlier in the season.
PREDICTION
Falcons by 16
SUNDAY 2:10PM SOUTHS LOGAN MAGPIES v REDCLIFFE DOLPHINS
TV GAME – KAYO FREEBIES / QRL WEBSITE
THOUGHTS & STATS
Depending on results this weekend including this game, this could be a game that is repeated in the first week of the finals. There’s way too combination of results needed for that, so you’ll just have to trust us.
Redcliffe could finish anywhere from 2nd to 5th, and a win may not even be enough for a top two spot.
Souths Logan Magpies are building a nice run of home wins, with four in a row. The Magpies are averaging 39 points a game in those games.
They are also the competitions leading scorer this season so far.
So with many points expected and much to play for, it looks like the regular season will finish on a high note.
PREDICTION
Redcliffe by 8
