Been too distracted by an NRL trainer cutting you off at the supermarket? Do you need some last-minute NRL tipping advice? Or simply want something else to blame when the tips go wrong? Either way, saddle up for The Gurgler’s NRL Round 24 Ratings and Late Mail.

In a new additional to our stable of NRL stats and tipping products, we have used all the stats we have, smashed them against each other like atoms, and come up with a H2H rating.

It includes this year’s form with a bias because it is this year, but we don’t forget historic stats of the H2H against this week’s opponents, and the ground and day the teams are playing on.

We’ve also applied an adjustment for each team’s increase or decrease in win % over the Origin period.

Then slice up the scores out of 100% between the two sides. The bigger the percentage, the more likely to win.

2025 NRL Round 24 Ratings

Here are the H2H ratings and winners for the first of the Origin affected rounds.

Our ratings picked just 5/8 last weekend, but improvement coming this week.

2025 NRL Round 24 Late Mail

THU – PENRITH v MELBOURNE (CommBank)

What a battle looms to open Round 24. Two of the most in-form teams in the competition in 2025, and since 2020 if we’re honest. Penrith shooting for ten in a row, but Melbourne are the kings of Thursday, and Grand Finals aside have the slight upper hand in recent matches. Melbourne have won three of the last four games v Penrith and

Melbourne have won the last three games on a Thursday v Penrith. Two of those games were in Penrith. As for Thursday, Penrith are W1 L3 on a Thursday this season. But have won their only Thursday game at CommBank Stadium. Melbourne have won all four Thursday games this season, and Melbourne have won 14 of their last 15 Thursday games, and Melbourne have won six in a row on a Thursday away to a Sydney team.

Melbourne are a little more lighter on players than the Panthers, with Ryan Papenhuyzen out this week to go with Jahrome Hughes and Jack Howarth out for a while. Of course the Storm production line will ensure that everyone is covered. Isaah Yeo remains out for Penrith, but they have everyone else, and Nathan Cleary. Who will probably be the difference.

FRI – WARRIORS v ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA

There’s so little going the Dragons’ way heading into this game, and you get the feeling they like it that way. Very few gave them a chance against the Sharks last weekend, and it was the only game our H2H Ratings didn’t tip correctly. But the stats this week are just as dire – Warriors are good…..Warriors have won three straight v Dragons at Mt Smart Stadium. Warriors have won all four home games at Mt Smart Stadium v Dragons on a Friday. Warriors are W7 L2 v Sydney teams this season. And Dragons are not so good……Dragons have the worst away record this season with W2 L8. They have also lost five in a row away. Dragons have lost eight in a row on a Friday away from home with a last win in 2021 v Warriors at Central Coast Stadium.

On the teams front Te Maire Martin drops out for Tanah Boyd and Wayde Egan is a key in, but Kurt Capewell is a key out. It’s hard to tell if that’s like for like in quality. The Dragons main change is Mat Feagai in and Moses Suli out. Which seems a fair enough swap. But is it enough to overcome those awful stats. Probably not.

FRI – ROOSTERS v BULLDOGS

What a game we have for Friday night. A real test for the Bulldogs after the Roosters form last week. But that’s kind of the problem with the Roosters. Their form is not quite permanent in 2025. The Roosters have not won more than two games in a row this season. They enter this game on two consecutive wins, so we’ll see if we know nothing after this weekend. The Roosters do have a good record over the Bulldogs, they have won five home games in a row v Bulldogs, although the last two wins were at Central Coast Stadium. And the Roosters have won six of the last seven games at Allianz v Bulldogs on a Friday night. The Roosters Friday night form is great too, as they have won 10 of their last 11 games at Allianz Stadium on a Friday and it’s eight in a row at Allianz Stadium v Sydney teams on a Friday. Form against Sydney teams evens the ledger a little as the Roosters have a 50% win rate v Sydney teams this season but the Bulldogs have an 82% win rate. That includes two from two v Sydney teams on a Friday, which includes beating the Roosters.

Nothing much on the teams front as Egan Butcher is in for Siua Wong for the Roosters and Connor Tracey could be a sneaky late inclusion as he is named in the reserves list.

SAT – CRONULLA v GOLD COAST

Cronulla have all the form heading into this game against the Titans, but they also did last weekend against the Dragons and that didn’t quite work out. So, Cronulla have won 10 of their past 11 games v Gold Coast and it’s five in a row on a Saturday. Plus Cronulla have won five of their last six v Qld sides. Gold Coast aren’t very good away or against Sydney clubs either, as they are W1 L4 away to Sydney teams this season and the Gold Coast have won only four of their last 25 away games v Sydney teams. But the Sharks looked good on paper last weekend, and the Titans are trying to avoid the spoon.

In the Titans favour is the team lists with the Sharks missing the powerful duo of Jesse Ramien and Briton Nikora, and they welcome back Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, which is a huge plus. Plus Big Mo also returns for added oomph. But is it enough to overcome the stats?

SAT – BRONCOS v DOLPHINS

As if the Battle of Brisbane needed any more juice, each side can not only get Brisbane bragging rights, but they can spoil the other team’s finals hope in the process, which would be double bragging rights. Much like the home ground, the stats domination is shared heading into this weekend. The Dolphins have won the only game v Brisbane on a Saturday at Suncorp Stadium. But the Broncos have won their last three at Suncorp Stadium on a Saturday, their last loss being the one last season v Dolphins. Broncos have won all four games v Qld opposition this season, three of those games being at Suncorp Stadium, but the Dolphins have won five in a row v Qld sides on a Saturday. Amazingly, the Dolphins have the same win rate on a Friday, Saturday and Sunday as it stands at 38%. Their 80% win rate on a Thursday is saving them. The Dolphins are yet to record a consecutive result in 2025 on a Saturday. Which is about the only positive you can take out of last Saturday pantsing by the Roosters.

So the big team news coming into this game for once isn’t the Dolphins with all the injuries, is the Broncos who lost Ezra Mam, Adam Reynolds and Selwyn Cobbo. The first two going down with hamstrings in one Storm line break. Their replacements are certainly capable – Billy Walters and Ben Hunt, and given the Broncos seemed to have a million hookers on their books they have Corey Paix and Tyson Smoothy filling in elsewhere. But will it spoil their flow, and will new halves gel with Reece Walsh or get in the way. Or vice versa. Dolphins may have been injury free, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t down a player this week. Francis Molo is out suspended, which given how fired up he was last weekend is no surprise. He’s replaced by Kenny Bromwich, who will find it hard to match the intensity. But he has loads of experience. The Dolphins need it.

SAT – SOUTH SYDNEY v PARRAMATTA

After taking one hand off the wooden spoon by beating the Gold Coast last weekend, the Rabbitohs can push another team below them this weekend as they meet Parramatta, a team they have a great recent record against. But that was when they fitter players. Souths have won eight of their last nine v Parramatta, plus it’s four in a row at the Olympic Stadium and six in a row on a Saturday. The teams are equally awful on Saturdays – Souths have lost their last six Saturday games. Parramatta have lost their last six away games on a Saturday. Syndey form goes to Souths as Parramatta are W1 L5 away to Sydney teams this season and Souths are W2 L2 at home to Sydney teams.

The biggest team news is Cody Walker being named in the reserves, Souths players and fans, will be excited for his potential return, as will Alex Johnston who is so close to that try scoring record. Winning means the Eels don’t need to make changes. How nice for them.

SUN – WESTS TIGERS v MANLY (Allianz Stadium)

On paper this looks a Manly win, they have the H2H form – Manly have won eight of the last nine games v Wests Tigers and Manly have won the last three Sunday games too. But this game has been moved to Allianz Stadium where the Tigers are usually terrible – their upset over the Roosters at the Sydney Football Stadium earlier in 2025 ended a run of 11 straight defeats there – but then again most of those games were against the Roosters. In good news the Wests Tigers have won the only two games v Manly at the Sydney Football Stadium and they have won their last two Sunday games.

Team news highlights are Lehi Hopoate returning, but Tom Trbojevic keeping his place at fullback, which makes sense. But the game is down one Trbojevic as Jake is out with concussion. The Tigers have Starford To’a return but Alex Seyfarth out.

SUN – NORTH QUEENSLAND v NEWCASTLE

Newcastle don’t seem to like Townsville or Queensland or North Queensland, which we’re sure isn’t personal, just stats. North Queensland have won four in a row v Newcastle, with all four games in Townsville. North Queensland have also won all six games v Newcastle at Queensland Country Bank Stadium, plus three more before that at the previous ground. Plus Newcastle have won just two of their last 24 games away to Qld sides in Qld. And North Queensland have won four in a row at home on a Sunday v all opposition.

Newcastle sees Connor Votano debut at fullback which moves Dane Gagai back to the centres, where he has been consistently great for the Knights. The Cowboys see Jordan McLean in while Coen Hess is out for a while suspended.

 2025 NRL Round 22 Review + Round 23 Preview

2025 NRL Season Stats So Far

And if you don’t believe our ratings, then help yourself to a bunch of stats from the 2025 NRL season.

Here’s the best of the NRL Team Stats from last weekend.