Welcome to our complete RLWC 2026 Tonga v Lebanon Match Hub. Here you’ll find all the pre-match information, including team lists, predictions and stats you need and want, key players to watch and why you should bother watching the game at all. Plus we ask AI to do better than us with a predictions and AI Greg Norman pays a visit for his thoughts on this and all RLWC 2026 games.
After the game stop by for just enough of the opinion and post match stats you could need to keep up with each match of the 2026 Rugby League World Cup.
RLWC 2026 Tonga v Lebanon Preview
Friday, October 23, 8:05pm AEDT at CommBank Stadium, Sydney
TEAMS
Tonga:Â 1. Lehi Hopoate, 2. Sione Katoa, 3. Tolutau Koula, 4. Paul Alamoti, 5. Jojo Fifita, 6. Tuimoala Lolohea, 7. Isaiya Katoa, 8. Addin Fonua-Blake, 9. Salesi Foketi, 10. Stefano Utoikamanu, 11. Haumole Olakau’atu, 12. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki, 13. Jason Taumalolo (c), 14. Soni Luke, 15. Taniela Paseka, 16. Demitric Vaimauga, 17. Leka Halasima, 18. Latu Fainu, 19. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, R. Talatau Amone, R. Robert Toia, R. Siua Wong
Lebanon:Â 1. Jacob Kiraz, 2. Tony Francis, 3. Michael Gabrael, 4. Jordan Samrani, 5. Jason Saab, 6. Khaled Rajab, 7. Alex Conti, 8. Jaxson Rahme, 9. Moustafa Dirani, 10. James Roumanos, 11. Tony Sukkar, 12. Mikael Ibrahim, 13. Alex Twal (c), 14. Yehya Ayache, 15. Tupou Francis, 16. Jalal Bazzaz, 17. Khalil Rahme, 18. Joseph Nohra, 19. Abbas Miski, R. Ibrahim El Labban, R. Mohamed Alameddine, R. Cameron Kanaan
TEAM TALKING POINT:
Latu Fainu’s injury sees him drop to the extended bench replaced by Tuimoala Lolohea, and the Tonga management are real killjoys for moving Dallin Watene-Zelezniak to the bench as well. Robert Toia also drops to the bench but he may want the rest and doesn’t have as good hair as Dallin Watene-Zelezniak. The replacements are solid though in Sione Katoa and Paul Alamoti. In one of the more imposing forward packs, Kulikefu Finefeuiaki joins the starting team, as does Stefano Utoikamanu.
PLAYERS TO WATCH:
Kulikefu Finefeuiaki – Career best form for the Dolphins forward this season is rewarded with a starting berth for Tonga, and not only is his powerful running and physicality impressive, but he has also become an 80-minute player this season, where more has become more. With Manly steamroller Haumole Olakau’atu on the other side, Lebanon are going to be seriously tested on the edges.
Jacob Kiraz – Is Lebanon’s best player along with Alex Twal, and Lebanon will need him to fire if they are going to be semi-competitive. He has his chance to shine at fullback at state a case for a Bulldogs start next season with a good run.
BATTLES TO WATCH:
Back three – the wingers and fullbacks are the most closely matched contest in this game, with Lebanon’s three having enough speed and skill to keep up with Samoa’s offering. Given the battering the Lebanon side could take on paper in the forwards, the back three for Lebanon will be vital for getting early set momentum. And you could argue Kiraz is Lebanon’s best player and will need to get on top to give Lebanon any chance of an upset.
Haumole Olakau’atu & Kulikefu Finefeuiaki vs Lebanon edge – given the awesome power on hand courtesy of the two Tongan second rowers it will be interesting to see how Lebanon can hold on if the Tongan duo are at their highest powers. Which we will presume they will be.
WHY YOU SHOULD CARE ABOUT THIS GAME
The quality of the Tongan forward pack will certainly be a reason to watch, it is world class. Plus, what else is happening on a Friday in the off NRL season.
STATS
H2H –Â Tonga 1 Lebanon 0 – the only previous meeting between the sides was in the 2017 World Cup quarter final where Tonga won 24-22 in Christchurch. Tuimoala Lolohea featured that day and scored for Tonga and Lebanon’s Abbas Miski also played and scored twice. Alex Twal also played.
TONGA
For all the hype and a couple of good results, Tonga have won only twice in their last 10 internationals, one of those wins being last weekend v England.
Tonga are good at World Cups though, having won 10 of their last 13 games at World Cups since 2013, and their three losses have all been by two points.
Tonga have played at CommBank once before for a very respectable 20-14 loss to Australia in 2024.
LEBANON
Lebanon are yet to play at CommBank Stadium but are W9 L8 overall for matches in Australia.
Lebanon have played 13 games v Pacific nations (including Australia and NZ) and won once v Fiji.
PREDICTION
Tonga have too much power for Lebanon, and others.
Tonga 54 Lebanon 10
AI GREG NORMAN’S PIC-REDICTION
AI Greg Norman is always on hand to give his opinion on anything sport related, and we harness the power of AI and his imagination to come up with a pictorial prediction.
AI Greg predicts an early wrestle followed by a solid Tonga thumping.
AI PREDICTION
Since everyone else is using AI, why not us for the 2026 Rugby League World Cup.
We asked AI the following: “Predict the winner of the Tonga v Lebanon 2026 Rugby League World Cup based on historical H2H records, each team’s record at World Cup, each team’s International record from the last 10 years with a recency bias on the last three years, relative toughness of each team’s forward pack, the performances from the first round of 2026 rugby league world cup matches and overall courage of the general population from each country.”
AI SAID:
Prediction: Tonga to defeat Lebanon
Projected score: Tonga 34 – 14 Lebanon
Why Tonga are favourites
1. Head-to-head history
The only previous meeting between the two nations at Rugby League World Cup level was the 2017 quarter-final, where Tonga narrowly defeated Lebanon 24-22.
While a single match is a small sample, it does show Lebanon can be competitive against Tonga when disciplined and well-organised.
2. Recent international performance (weighted toward the last three years)
Tonga have spent much of the last decade competing regularly against Tier 1 opposition including Australia, New Zealand and Samoa, while producing occasional major upsets. Their player pool contains numerous established NRL stars.
Lebanon have enjoyed strong moments, particularly at the 2022 Rugby League World Cup where they reached the knockout stages, but their depth and overall player quality remain below Tonga’s
Applying a recency bias, Tonga’s ability to remain competitive against elite opposition carries significantly more weight than Lebanon’s results against lower-ranked nations.
3. Forward pack advantage
This is the biggest factor.
Tonga’s pack includes players such as Haumole Olakau’atu, Stefano Utoikamanu, Taniela Paseka and Kulikefu Finefeuiaki, providing genuine NRL premiership-level power and athleticism
In Round 1, Tonga physically overwhelmed England, with Olakau’atu scoring twice and Tonga dominating large stretches of the contest.
Lebanon’s forwards are hardworking and committed, but on paper and recent form they lack the size, explosiveness and representative pedigree of the Tongan middle unit.
4. Round 1 World Cup form
Round 1 strongly favoured Tonga:
- Tonga defeated England 30-12 in one of the biggest results of the opening weekend.
- Lebanon were beaten 42-18 by Papua New Guinea.
England entered the tournament as one of the stronger contenders, making Tonga’s win particularly impressive.
5. Halves and game management
Isaiya Katoa was among the standout players of Round 1, controlling Tonga’s attack and helping dismantle England’s defence.
Lebanon possess attacking threats such as Jacob Kiraz, Jason Saab and Abbas Miski, but their attack struggled to consistently trouble PNG.
