Welcome to our complete RLWC 2026 PNG v Samoa Match Hub. Here you’ll find all the pre-match information, including team lists, predictions and stats you need and want, key players to watch and why you should bother watching the game at all. Plus we ask AI to do better than us with a predictions and AI Greg Norman pays a visit for his thoughts on this and all RLWC 2026 games.
After the game stop by for just enough of the opinion and post match stats you could need to keep up with each match of the 2026 Rugby League World Cup.
RLWC 2026 PNG v Samoa Preview
Saturday, October 24, 3:25pm AEDT at Santos National Football Stadium, Port Moresby
TEAMS
Papua New Guinea: 1. Morea Morea, 2. Robert Derby, 3. Zac Laybutt, 4. Nene Macdonald, 5. Dudley Dotoi, 6. Gairo Voro, 7. Bailey Biondi-Odo, 8. Epel Kapinias, 9. Edwin Ipape, 10. Luca Moretti, 11. Rhyse Martin (c), 12. Nixon Putt, 13. Jack de Belin, 14. Finley Glare, 15. Liam Horne, 16. Valentine Richard, 17. Khaiya Waiembi, 18. Rodrick Tai, 19. Josh Feledy, R. Sylvester Namo, R. Sanny Wabo, R. Zev John
Samoa: 1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, 2. Brian To’o, 3. Izack Tago, 4. Stephen Crichton, 5. Sualauvi Fa’alogo, 6. Chanel Harris-Tavita, 7. Jarome Luai (c), 8. Francis Molo, 9. Benaiah Ioelu, 10. Junior Paulo, 11. Connelly Lemuelu, 12. Jermaine McEwen, 13. Francis Manuleleua, 14. Jazz Tevaga, 15. Spencer Leniu, 16. Shawn Blore, 17. Ata Mariota, 18. Clayton Faulalo, 19. Ronald Volkman, R. Pasami Saulo, R. Enari Tuala, R. Eddie Ieremia-Toeava
TEAMS TALKING POINT:
A few tweaks for PNG with players named to start and benched last weekend named in the starting side again – Bailey Biondi-Odo and the very experienced Jack de Belin. A player to watch previously – Epel Kapinias – has been moved to the starting side after a good game last weekend, and perhaps our recommendation. Although only named in jersey 19, excited to see Josh Feledy named for the Kumuls. Sualauvi Fa’alogo replaced the luckless Deine Mariner on the wing, and with more time on the field may score even more.
PLAYERS TO WATCH:
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow – representing Samoa, the Dolphins fullback has represented Australia and could also play for PNG, and at his best is an excitement machine. Given some links to PNG he’ll no doubt want to impress the locals and is due for a big one.
Sualauvi Fa’alogo – given he scored four tries off the bench last weekend, what can he do as part of the starting side.
Edwin Ipape – arguably the only position where PNG outrank Samoa in quality, Ipape is a livewire from dummy half, and they will need his agility in the middle to combat some of Samoa’s big men in the middle.
Nixon Putt – Big fan of the PNG second rower and he was outstanding in their first game. PNG will need another big game from him to compete in the forwards.
BATTLES TO WATCH:
Nene Macdonald v Stephen Crichton – Nene Macdonald is one of the Kumuls most experienced internationals, and played in the last World Cup meeting between these teams in 2013. His battle v Stephen Crichton could be a good an feisty one given the competitiveness and quality of both.
Gairo Voro v Jarome Luai – not only key to giving their sides direction in the game, Voro kind of looks and plays like Luai so it will be an interesting side interest for the match.
Back Row – The forwards are more evenly matched, particularly in the back row where the Kumuls boast the experience of Rhyse Martin and Jack de Belin. Although not an NRL player, Nixon Putt was one of the Kumuls’ best performers last weekend and deserves an NRL chance. That’s not to say the Samoans back row doesn’t offer plenty of firepower, in the form of Newcastle’s grand final duo Jermaine McEwen and Francis Manuleleua, with the dynamic Dolphins second rower Connelly Lemuelu completing the trio.
WHY YOU SHOULD CARE ABOUT THIS GAME
This game is potentially the least one-sided of a weekend of Rugby League World Cup games that seem very one-sided. It is also key to each team’s progress to the final four after both teams won in Week 1.
PREDICTION
Samoa should be too good, but the home record is on the Kumul’s side and will ensure that they won’t go down without a fight. Still, Samoa have too much NRL firepower – for now.
Samoa by 14
STATS
OVERALL H2H – Samoa 3-0
WORLD CUPS – Samoa 1-0
- The H2H record isn’t good for Papua New Guinea, with three games against Samoa since 2009 for three losses. They have met in a World Cup before in 2013, where Samoa won 38-4 at Hull KR’s home ground in a game that featured Anthony Milford, three tries to Antonio Winterstein, and also featured Nene Macdonald – who is in the Kumuls side 13 years later.
- PNG’s home record in Port Moresby is another matter though, where they have won 15 of their last 16 home internationals since 2009 and have won their last four World Cup games at home by a combined 170-30. While most of those wins came against Tier 2 nations or lower-ranked opposition, the Kumuls did beat the British Lions on home soil in 2019. Given the PNG side gives up a lot of NRL experience, the home ground advantage will be huge for them if they can get a full house.
AI GREG NORMAN’S PIC-REDICTION
AI Greg Norman is always on hand to give his opinion on anything sport related, and we harness the power of AI and his imagination to come up with a pictorial prediction.
Not AI Greg nor Jarome Luai want to mess with PNG Rugby League legend Willie Minoga
AI PREDICTION
Since everyone else is using AI, why not us for the 2026 Rugby League World Cup.
We asked AI the following: “Predict the winner of this 2026 Rugby League World Cup based on historical H2H records, each team’s record at World Cup, each team’s International record from the last 10 years with a recency bias on the last three years, relative toughness of each team’s forward pack, and overall courage of the general population from each country.”
AI SAID:
Prediction: Samoa to defeat Papua New Guinea
Projected score: Samoa 28 – 18 Papua New Guinea
Estimated win probability
- Samoa: 68%
- Papua New Guinea: 32%
Why Samoa are favourites
1. Historical head-to-head record
Samoa have won all three recent senior international meetings between the nations:
- 2009: Samoa 26-18 PNG
- 2013 World Cup: Samoa 38-4 PNG
- 2019 Oceania Cup: Samoa 24-6 PNG
Samoa therefore hold a 3-0 advantage in completed senior internationals against PNG.
2. Rugby League World Cup pedigree
While PNG have produced some memorable World Cup campaigns, including reaching the quarter-finals in 2000 and 2017, Samoa’s overall World Cup record is stronger. PNG’s best finishes are quarter-finals, while Samoa reached the World Cup Final in the most recent completed tournament (2021 tournament played in 2022), becoming the first Pacific nation to do so.
3. International form with recency bias
Applying extra weight to the last three years strongly benefits Samoa. Their squad is built around numerous NRL stars and they remain one of the world’s top international sides, while recent reporting ahead of this match describes Samoa as genuine contenders entering the tournament.
4. Forward pack comparison
This is where Samoa gain perhaps their largest advantage.
Players such as Junior Paulo, alongside a forward pack largely drawn from top NRL clubs, give Samoa superior size, experience and middle-third power. PNG are traditionally fearless and highly energetic, but Samoa possess greater elite-level depth through the middle and on the edges.
5. First-round World Cup performances
Samoa opened their campaign by thrashing France 78-4, sending an early message to the rest of the tournament. Reports from the opening round described Samoa as entering the PNG match with strong momentum.
Why PNG can still win
Home-field advantage in Port Moresby
This is the biggest factor working in PNG’s favour.
The match is being played in Port Moresby, and PNG’s home record is formidable. Reports indicate the Kumuls have lost only one home Test in the past decade, and opposition teams frequently speak about the heat, humidity and intimidating atmosphere.
Passion and national identity
Rugby league occupies a unique place in Papua New Guinea. The sport enjoys extraordinary public support and generates an atmosphere that few international teams experience elsewhere. While “overall courage of the population” is not something that can be objectively measured or used as a sporting statistic, PNG’s deep cultural attachment to rugby league certainly enhances their home advantage and resilience. Samoa likewise possesses an exceptionally proud rugby league culture, so I would not treat this factor as a meaningful separator between the teams.
Final Verdict
If this match were played on neutral ground, I would make Samoa clear favourites by around 14-18 points.
Because it is being played in Port Moresby, PNG’s chances improve substantially. The Kumuls should be competitive for long periods, but Samoa’s superior recent international record, stronger head-to-head history, deeper NRL-calibre roster and dominant opening-round performance still make them the most likely winner.
Prediction: 🏆 Samoa 28-18 Papua New Guinea
Player of the Match: Jarome Luai
Upset likelihood: Moderate. PNG at home are dangerous enough that a Kumuls victory would not be a major shock.
