Rugby League’s showcase event – and the grand finale at that is here this Wednesday where the winners will be cheers, and the losers booed until everyone’s voices are sore. Which colour jersey will get to do the most yelling remains to be seen, but the stats offered below are shaping towards Queensland being the winners. But there’s arguing to be done, beers to be purchased at The Caton, and Laurie Daley to blame for everything. All that’s left after that to do is dive into our State of Origin Game 3 Stats and prepare for the big game.
As ever, we’ve got enough State of Origin data in our trusty old spreadsheet to come up with a bunch of interesting stats, plus we use all of those stats to come up with a ratings system which not only gives a H2H rating and pick a winner but give the score in advance so we can all load up own Sportsbet. All to over-complicate something that is pretty simple. Two great teams with great sets of fans hating each other for 80 minutes.
There’s something for everyone, except for those who don’t like rugby league or State of Origin. And for those in Melbourne who continue to call rugby league by the term ”rugby”.
2026 State of Origin Game 3 Ratings & Score Predictor
Here’s where we use all the stats we’ve compiled for later, measured each side’s record against the other, worked out how many points the game will likely see, and then share our H2H Ratings and score prediction.
Queensland defied a poor record in Melbourne and NSW momentum heading into the game two to turn our ratings system on its head. So will the strong advantage our model shows mean Queensland will be even stronger this Wednesday? NSW think so, and Laurie Daley is wearing the brunt.
State of Origin Game 3 Stats
BEST OF ORIGIN THREE STATS
- NSW have won the last two games at Suncorp Stadium and the last series decider at Lang Park.
- Queensland have won eight of the last nine Game Threes at Suncorp Stadium. Just not the last one.
- Queensland have also won 6 of the last deciders at Lang Park. Just not the last one.
- Queensland have outscored NSW by 1157 to 895 at Lang Park.
- These teams are only 15 points apart in total points scored in Origin games.
Obscure Stat of Origin – Queensland have won both games that are deciders at Lang Park after NSW have won the first game.
2026 State of Origin Game 3 Stats
H2H STATS / GROUND STATS
Queensland hold the ground advantage at Lang Park as expected for overall, and recent history, but not the last two games, setting up a reason that NSW can win.
SERIES DECIDERS AND FIRST GAME WINNERS
There have been 22 deciders in State of Origin and Queensland own 16 of the wins. Which ever way you look at it, Queensland has the advantage.
FIRST / LAST TRY SCORER STATS
STATE OF ORIGIN FIRST/LAST TRY SCORERS SINCE 2005
