Rugby League’s showcase event – the State of Origin is teaming up with Australia’s showcase stadium – the MCG to provide the theatre for sporting drama on Wednesday. The Origin bolters have been selected, the barbs in the media have been thrown, social media is ablaze with keyboard warriors arguing about Moses and other religious characters, and Sportsbet ads have been watched with the realisation that we all have to suffer Channel Nein together. All that’s left to do is dive into our State of Origin Game 2 Stats and prepare for the big game.
As ever, we’ve got enough State of Origin data in our trusty old spreadsheet to come up with a bunch of interesting stats, plus we use all of those stats to come up with a ratings system which not only gives a H2H rating and pick a winner, but give the score in advance so we can all load up own Sportsbet. All to over-complicate something that is pretty simple. Two great teams with great sets of fans hating each other for 80 minutes.
There’s something for everyone, except for those who don’t like rugby league or State of Origin. And for those in Melbourne who continue to call rugby league by the term ”rugby”.
2026 State of Origin Game 2 Ratings & Score Predictor
Here’s where we use all the stats we’ve compiled for later, measured each side’s record against the other, worked out how many points the game will likely see, and then share our H2H Ratings and score prediction.
Queensland’s record in Melbourne in particular swings the predictor towards NSW. Game Two and Neutral venues don’t help the Maroons either. The stats are as lop sided against Queensland as they get almost. Which might be dangerous for NSW.
State of Origin Game 2 Stats
BEST OF ORIGIN STATS
- The last Game Two match was decided by two points, but the previous six were decided by an average margin of 26 points.
- MCG averages 34.8 total points scored for their Origin matches, which is higher than the current ground average totals – Lang Park 33.1 and Sydney Olympic Stadium 33.0.
- NSW lead the Neutral Ground Venue H2H by 9-7.
- When NSW have won the first game, and the second game is at a neutral venue, the record is W2 L1.
- When Queensland win the Game Two at a neutral ground, they go on to win the series (twice).
GAME TWO STATS
NSW have a decent edge for Game Two, and their record at Melbourne is excellent.
GROUND STATS
Queensland’s only win at the MCG was under Paul “Fatty” Vautin’s 1995 Queensland heroes.
EVENTUAL SERIES WINNER STATS
FIRST / LAST TRY SCORER STATS
STATE OF ORIGIN FIRST/LAST TRY SCORERS SINCE 2005
NRL 2026 SEASON FIRST/LAST TRY SCORERS BY POSITION
