NRL | 2026 NRL Round 1 Ratings and Late Mail

Been too distracted by the Zac Lomax court case or worried how Craig Bellamy will react to losing his first ever Round 1 clash? Do you need some last-minute NRL tipping advice? Or simply want something else to blame when the tips go wrong? Either way, The Gurgler’s 2026 NRL Round 1 Ratings and Late Mail is here to deliver a little help.

In addition to our huge stable of NRL stats and tipping gear, we have used all the stats we have, smashed them against each other like atoms, and come up with a H2H rating as dangerous to the outside world as Chernobyl.

We include lots of things, and add to it as the season progresses, come up with a magic number for each team, then slice up the scores out of 100% between the two sides. The bigger the percentage, the more likely to win.

And always, Win Early, Win Often.

2026 NRL Round 1 Ratings

Here are the latest H2H ratings and winners for the big weekend of NRL action ahead.

2026 NRL Round 1 Late Mail

THU – MELBOURNE 62% v PARRAMATTA 38%

To be honest, we thought Melbourne would be further ahead on the ratings. Given two special stats.

Melbourne last lost a Round 1 clash in 2001, a mere 23 wins in a row.

Melbourne’s home Thursday record can’t be beat, and it hasn’t. 20 wins from 20 games.

Parramatta did finish 2025 strongly and did well in the pre-season. Parramatta do lead Melbourne 3-2 in the Thursday night H2H but all five of those games were at CommBank Stadium.

Melbourne could be unsettled with the Zac Lomax court case loss, and with the exit in the off season of big name players  Ryan Papenhuyzen, Nelson Asofa-Solomona, and Eli Katoa’s unfortunate long-term absence, plus a few of their key players looking to move on at the end of the season. But then again, Craig Bellamy wouldn’t allow distractions. Xavier Coates is also out this weekend, giving Parramatta one of the best chances to break the Storm Round 1 record.

Parramatta have smart additions to their team – the hard working Jack De Belin and former Storm backup half Jonah Pezet. Sean Russell replaces the injured Josh Addo-Carr

FRI – WARRIORS 42% v ROOSTERS 58%

Roosters strongly favoured according to our ratings, but Warriors not without hope.

Roosters have won nine of their last 10 games v Warriors, but not the last game in 2025 where the Wahs won 14-6 on a Friday. Fridays are a good day for the Warriors to play the Roosters, they are unbeaten in three games. Roosters Round 1 form isn’t great with four wins from their last 13 Round 1 games. And they have lost their last three Roun 1 games away.

Big team news for the game is DCE’s debut for the Roosters, and hard to tell if this is going to work out for either player or club. Given Sandon Smith’s form for Newcastle last weekend, maybe there’ll be some regret. Origin player Connor Watson has been overlooked as starting hooker for Benaiah Ioelu, although neither would start if new recruit Reece Robson was fit.

Both Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and five-eighth Chanel Harris-Tavita have been named despite injury concerns. Marata Niukore is officially out through injury. Tanah Boyd is named at halfback, but needs to convince more to nail down that position.

FRI – BRISBANE 53% v PENRITH 47%

Our ratings surprised us here leaning towards the Broncos.

Maybe it’s Penrith’s obscure poor away Round 1 record. Penrith have won only one of their ten Round 1 away games, that was in 2006. Brisbane’s 50-50 record at home for Round 1 is better.

Penrith have the upper hand with recent H2H as since Covid in 2020, Penrith are W9 L2 v Broncos. But then the Broncos have won six of the last eight games v Penrith at Suncorp Stadium on a Friday.

At home the Broncos finished the season with a W7 L1 record from June, going on to win the competition.

For Brisbane Jack Gosiewski replacing the injured Brendan Piakura is a notable change. And the hooker Roulette continues into 2026 with Cory Paix selected as starting hooker ahead of Ben Hunt. Broncos will need to get over the travel and disappointment of the World Club Challenge loss against Hull KR, hopefully better than Hull KR got over the win and having to travel to Las Vegas.

For Penrith Luke Garner replaces Liam Martin, and new recruits Jack Cogger, Kalani Going and Freddy Lussick are all named on the bench.

FRI – CRONULLA 74% v GOLD COAST 26%

The most lop-sided game of the weekend according to our ratings, as is likely a mixture of Cronulla’s strong home form to finish 2025 and the Titans woeful away record in Sydney.

Sharks have won their last seven games at Shark Park and won all three home games v Qld sides in 2025 by a combined 110-46. They also have an outstanding H2H v Gold Coast as they have won 12 of their last 13 games v Gold Coast going back to 2018.

Gold Coast were W1 L5 away to Sydney teams in 2025. Since 2022, the Titans are W4 L20 away to Sydney teams. Gold Coast have won just one of their last 10 games away to Sydney teams on a Saturday.

Both teams Saturday Round 1 form isn’t great though, Gold Coast have won 1/7 Round 1 games on a Saturday. Cronulla have lost their last four Round 1 clashes on a Saturday.

Sharks are almost as you were from last season where they made it to the second last week of the finals. Ronaldo Mulitalo is the big name missing, which given he rubs people the wrong way may not be missed by non-Sharks fans. The Titans off season half recruit Lachlan Ilias gets a chance to restart his career on the Gold Coast, like a few before him. Another new face Max Feagai means it’s a different backline to last season. Maybe that’s a good thing. The Titans looked good in pre season, and this weekend could be the start of big seasons for players like Arama Hau and Cooper Bai.

SAT – MANLY 50.5% v CANBERRA 49.5%

The first of two 50-50 games according to our Ratings.

Manly’s home form last season went under the radar a bit and may have helped their ratings here – Manly finished the season by winning five of their last six home games.
Manly also finished the season by winning six of their last seven at home on a Saturday. Their first round record hasn’t been to bad recently. Manly have won their first round clash, which has been at home, for the last three seasons.

Canberra’s first round record may not have helped with Canberra having lost their last six Round 1 away clashes on a Saturday.

The 50-50 theme continues though, It’s six wins piece on a Saturday between these sides. And it’s three wins a piece at Manly on a Saturday.

On the team front it is coincidental and very interesting to see Jamal Fogarty make his Manly debut, the former Raider replacing the long term Manly half Daly Cherry-Evans at halfback. Haumole Olakau’atu plays after missing the pre-season games through injury. For Canberra Jayden Brailey being selected instead of Owen Pattie is a talking point, and the injured Matt Timoko is a loss.

SUN – DOLPHINS 49.5% v SOUTH SYDNEY 50.5%

Another 50-50 between two teams where Wayne Bennett has been the bread and the meat of the sandwich.

The H2H is two wins each so far since the Dolphins entered the competition, staying within the theme of 50-50.

The Dolphins have the upper hand at Suncorp and Sunday with Dolphins having a decent W8 L3 record at Suncorp Stadium v Sydney teams. It’s 2/2 on a Sunday v Sydney teams. Meanwhile South Sydney have lost their last five games at Suncorp Stadium, with a last win in 2023, and Souths have won just two of their past ten games on a Sunday.

The Dolphins get a stack of forwards back for Round 1 with Tom Flegler and Tom Gilbert the big names, but they still have injury concerns with Jeremy Marshall-King, Max Plath and Ray Stone all out, meaning the Dolphins can’t call upon three of their hooker options. Brad Schneider gets the nod as backup, but he wasn’t overly convincing in pre season as a hooker, great half option though. UK recruit Morgan Knowles was, and has made the starting side at lock.

Souths big team news is loaded with potential through new recruit David Fifita selected in the second row and Latrell Mitchell shifting to the centres, leaving the impressive Jye Gray to play full time at fullback. Cameron Murray is named and will hopefully enjoy an injury free 2026 unlike 2025. Like the Dolphins, Souths had a lot of injuries last season, so will be excited at getting close to their full strength. Hopefully Alex Johnston gets closer to the try scoring record.

Other 2026 NRL Round 1 Preview Stuff

2025 NRL Season Stats

Well given these are the first games of the season there’s no current season stats to share. So here’s the best of last season.