Welcome to the first of a series of 2024 NRL Stats in depth, where we take a certain NRL stat and take a deep dive into the relative performance of the NRL teams and players. Our first edition quite rightly looks into each team’s Round 1 NRL results history.
Does one team have a clear advantage in the first round? Does winning in Week One lead to making the finals? Do each team have a bogey side for Round 1 NRL results.
Those questions and more that you never thought you needed or wanted will be answered, along with so many accompanying visuals you’ll wonder where you are after a few minutes. Or seconds. But this isn’t about seconds, it’s about firsts, and first rounds. So enjoy our look into Round 1 NRL Results History.
Round 1 NRL Results Stats History
Here are a bunch of visuals for NRL teams performance in Round 1 of the NRL since 1998.
Melbourne are the Round 1 kings.
Speaking of Melbourne, their first round opponents are Penrith, and note their poor away form for Round 1.
Newcastle are the dark horses for Round 1 winning. Consistently home and away.
Round 1 NRL Results Stats History by Season
So here is the full Win-Loss record of each team for Round 1.
Melbourne lost three of their first four Round 1 games then have lost just one of all the games from 2002.
Outside of Melbourne’s dominance, only one other side has won two Round 1 games in a row heading into 2024.
Wests Tigers have the longest current Round 1 losing streak on three games. And they have no chance to stop/extend that as they have the bye.
Round 1 NRL Results Stats Last Ten Seasons
Round 1 NRL Results Stats History Point Scoring
The Dolphins top another NRL Round 1 category. Glory might be short-lived, so why not let them enjoy it.
Both Souths and the Roosters have scored more points away than at home on average in Round 1. Which is good, as both teams are technically away this season.
Just 7/17 teams have a positive net points total for Round 1.
And have some stats on highest and lowest scoring games for NRL Round 1.
Round 1 NRL Results Stats History Point Scoring by Season
So here are the total points scored in each round from 1998.
Worth noting that the leading season of 2003 was before the Gold Coast Titans joined, so had one game fewer than 2007 onwards.
2020 saw the lowest points total for an eight game round. The competition paused a round later as Covid-19 set in.
Round 1 NRL Big Win-Little Win
How about checking the margins of the Round 1 fixtures through the years, with the biggest tonkings and the most narrow of contests. There’s even a draw.
Round 1 NRL Results History – Do Round 1 Winners Win the Premiership?
IT’s SORT-OF 50-50
Since 1998, 50% of the eventual Premiers lost their first game of the season. If you remove the ever-consistent Melbourne (who have a W5 L1 in their Premiership seasons) the record is W8 L12.
Round 1 NRL Results History – Do Round 1 Winners Make the Finals?
MORE YES THAN NO
Good question, and glad we asked ourselves.
Well, trying to be open minded, or lazy, we decided to use the win % of 50% or better as the measure instead of making the finals. To give fans more hope that their teams can make the finals here goes.
Teams that win their opening games of the season are more likely to end up with a season winning % of 50% or higher. Since 1998 of the 193 teams that have won their first game of the season 115 went on to achieve a win record of 50%+.
Just 85 of the 201 Round 1 losers ended up with a 50% win record for the season.
Do NRL Teams Have a Bogey Side in Round 1?
Well the quick answer is yes with a but…..
Melbourne’s first round record isn’t perfect against NSW sides or New Zealand sides. They are playing one of those in Round 1 this season.
Newcastle have a great record against Canberra, NSW and New Zealand, yet a 0% record for games v Queensland and Melbourne. Lucky they’re playing Canberra then.
Do NRL Teams Have a Bogey Day in Round 1?
Some teams certainly do have a bogey day for Round 1 fixtures. Some are just good on any day. But here are some choice daily stats.
Newcastle and Canberra play their first round game on Thursday, neither side has played a Round 1 game on that day yet. Canberra haven’t played a Friday game for Round 1 either.
South Sydney and the Roosters both have a 67% win record for Round 1 on a Sunday. But the game is on a Saturday in the US technically, and the Roosters have the superior strike rate.
Talking of Saturdays into Sunday, Broncos Saturday Round 1 record is 100%. Manly’s is 20%.
Cronulla haven’t won a first round game on a Friday. Warriors haven’t played one.
Melbourne are 100% for Friday Round 1 games. And Thursday and Monday.
Dolphins have a 100% success rate for Round 1 games at Suncorp Stadium and Round 1 games on a Sunday.
What about Historic H2H Records for Round 1 Games This Season?
Some of the teams have played each other before this season in Round One. Some haven’t. So here is a quick record of those H2H of those who have. (Sorry, no visuals supplied for the teams who haven’t played each other in Round from 1998).
POINTS OF INTEREST
Souths and Roosters have played each other 14 times since 1998. Every time since 1998 that these teams meet in the first round and make the Grand Final at the end of the season, they have won the first round match between these sides.
Gold Coast v Dragons is a repeat of the Titans first ever game in the NRL in 2007.
The most recent Eels v Bulldogs Round 1 clash also double as the game with the equal lowest total points for a Round 1 fixture.
