World Cup 2026 Group D features the home nation USA leading a group with no real outstanding team to be a sure thing to finish top of the group, this group does have the smallest difference between the top and lowest ranked teams of 24 places between USA (16th) and Paraguay (40th). Turkey are considered a dark horse for the tournament and are the only team in this group that have a 50% win rate or better at World Cups, they qualified second behind Spain in their group. Turkey haven’t been at the World Cup sine they finished third in 2002. Paraguay haven’t been at a World Cup since 2010, and qualified 6th via the generous South American qualifying format. Australia qualified second in their group in the qualifying series that seems to take forever. Australia really outperformed expectations in 2022, and could surprise again.
FIXTURES
| Match |
AEST Day |
Date |
AEST Time |
Team1 |
Team2 |
Ground |
Location |
Result |
| 4 |
Saturday |
Jun-12 |
11:00 |
United States |
Paraguay |
SoFi Stadium |
Inglewood |
4-1 Report |
| 6 |
Sunday |
Jun-13 |
14:00 |
Australia |
Turkey |
BC Place |
Vancouver |
Preview |
| 32 |
Saturday |
Jun-19 |
5:00 |
United States |
Australia |
Lumen Field |
Seattle |
|
| 31 |
Saturday |
Jun-19 |
11:00 |
Turkey |
Paraguay |
Levi’s Stadium |
Santa Clara |
|
| 59 |
Friday |
Jun-25 |
12:00 |
Turkey |
United States |
SoFi Stadium |
Inglewood |
|
| 60 |
Friday |
Jun-25 |
12:00 |
Paraguay |
Australia |
Levi’s Stadium |
Santa Clara |
|
GROUP STATS
| Team |
Method of qualification |
Date of qualification |
Total WC Appearances |
Previous World Cup |
Previous best effort |
| United States |
Hosts |
14/02/2023 |
12 |
2022 |
Third place (1930) |
| Australia |
AFC third round Group C runners-up |
10/06/2025 |
7 |
2022 |
Round of 16 (2006, 2022) |
| Paraguay |
CONMEBOL sixth place |
4/09/2025 |
9 |
2010 |
Quarter-finals (2010) |
| Turkey |
UEFA play-offs Path C winners |
31/03/2026 |
4 |
2002 |
Third place (2002) |
PREDICTIONS
Here’s where we put our money where our mouth is. Using all of the stats below and more, we have developed a H2H win rating for both teams for all Group Stage games. If the rating is within 5% of each other we’re calling a draw, otherwise the higher the rating the more likely to win. From there we come up with our prediction on the final table. All of that is available below for following, arguing or ignoring. We welcome any.
H2H MATCH RATINGS
| Match |
Team1 |
Ratings |
Team2 |
Ratings |
Match Prediction |
| 4 |
United States |
54.1% |
Paraguay |
45.9% |
United States |
| 6 |
Australia |
41.2% |
Turkey |
58.8% |
Turkey |
| 32 |
United States |
53.0% |
Australia |
47.0% |
United States |
| 31 |
Turkey |
52.7% |
Paraguay |
47.3% |
Turkey |
| 59 |
Turkey |
52.6% |
United States |
47.4% |
Turkey |
| 60 |
Paraguay |
49.4% |
Australia |
50.6% |
Draw |
FINAL TABLE PREDICTION
| Team |
Pts |
| Turkey |
9 |
| United States |
6 |
| Paraguay |
1 |
| Australia |
1 |
GENERAL STATS
