NRL | 2026 NRL Round 5 Ratings and Late Mail

Been too distracted by mega sulks from dropped NRL players? Been too crowded from a pitch invasion to read the form guide? Do you need some last-minute NRL tipping advice? Or simply want something else to blame when the tips go wrong? Either way, The Gurgler’s 2026 NRL Round 5 Ratings and Late Mail is here to deliver a little help.

In addition to our huge stable of NRL stats and tipping gear, we have used all the stats we have, smashed them against each other like atoms, and come up with a H2H rating as dangerous to the outside world as Chernobyl.

We include lots of things, and add to it as the season progresses, come up with a magic number for each team, then slice up the scores out of 100% between the two sides. The bigger the percentage, the more likely to win.

And always, Win Early, Win Often.

2026 NRL Round 5 Ratings

Here are the latest H2H ratings and winners for the big weekend of NRL action ahead. 

2026 NRL Round 5 Late Mail

Now we go through every game pointing out the good and the grape (a different way of saying not so great). Be it stats, players ins and outs, or any word on the street we can share.

THURSDAY 8PM – DOLPHINS 71% v MANLY 29% @ Kayo Stadium

Good – Return of Kurt Donoghue for Dolphins, and we’d expect to play. Giving the Dolphins one of their best from 2026 and is more of a hooker/back up than Brad Schneider.

Good – Dolphins have a great Thursday record of W8 L2.

Good – Dolphins have won five in a row as the home side on a Thursday at any ground.

Good – The Dolphins are unbeaten on a Thursday at Kayo Stadium aka Dolphin Oval.

Good – Jason Saab is out for Manly.

Best – Ray Stone

Grape – Manly’s Thursday record isn’t great – W6 L19.

Grape – Manly’s Thursday record isn’t great – W6 L19.

Grape – Manly’s Thursday away record is even worse, W1 L10.

FRIDAY 4PM – SOUTH SYDNEY 63% v BULLDOGS 37%

Good – South Sydney have won the last three Good Friday clashes as the home side

Good – Bulldogs won both games v Souths in 2025.

Grape – Bulldogs seem unsure what their best halves combination is again.

Unsure – Bronson Xerri named on the bench.

Unsure – Bulldogs won the Good Friday clash 32-0 last season but had lost six in a row before that.

FRIDAY 8PM – PENRITH 64% v MELBOURNE 36% @ CommBank Stadium

Good – Nick Meaney is back for Melbourne.

Good – Melbourne have won four of the last five v Penrith, the loss was the 2024 Grand Final.

Good – Melbourne have won the last two away games v Penrith.

Good – Penrith have won all four home games v Melbourne on a Friday. And by a combined 121-40.

Grape – Mitch Kenny out, but no doubt the replacement will kill like everyone else does.

Grape – Tui Kamikamica suffering a stroke midweek. Get well soon Tui.

SATURDAY 5:30PM – ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA 20% v NORTH QUEENSLAND 80% @ Kogarah

Good – North Queensland have won six in a row v St George Illawarra. It’s three in a row as the away side.

Good – Todd Payten’s job should be safe for a week.

Good – St George are better at home than away.

Grape – St George Illawarra can’t beat the Gold Coast. And are last.

Unsure – St George Illawarra are W4 L3 at Kogarah v North Qld but have lost the last two.

Unsure – Kyle Flanagan is out.

SATURDAY 7:30PM – GOLD COAST 40% v BRISBANE 60%

Good – Broncos love playing Qld teams. Brisbane are on a seven game winning streak v all Qld clubs.

Good – Payne Haas returns.

Good – Xavier Willison

Good – Another week together for the best halves lineup for the Titans – Lachlan Ilias and Jayden Campbell.

Grape – Gold Coast are not good at playing Qld teams lately. They are on an eight game losing streak v Qld sides.

Grape –Josiah Karapani dropped, not a great move for him with the winger depth at the club.

SUNDAY 2PM – SHARKS 52% v WAHS 48%

Good – Briton Nikora returns for Cronulla.

Good – Cronulla have won seven in a row at home on a Sunday.

Good – Cronulla have lost their last three home games v Wahs.

Good – Cronulla have won six in a row at home on a Sunday v non Sydney teams.

Good – Warriors have won their last three Sunday games.

Grape – Mitch Barnett is out for the Warriors.

SUNDAY 4PM – NEWCASTLE 58% v CANBERRA 42%

Good – Newcastle are W9 L3 v Canberra at home on a Sunday, including wins in the last two Sunday games.

Good – Newcastle have won both of their Sunday fixtures this season.

Good – Trey Mooney returns for Newcastle.

Good – Josh Papali’i returns for Canberra.

Good – Newcastle are W2 D1 L1 for first halves this season. Canberra are D1 L3.

Grape – Canberra are now on a three game losing streak on a Sunday.

MONDAY 4PM – PARRAMATTA 50.5% v WESTS TIGERS 49.5%

Good – Parramatta have won their last four home games.

Grape – Wests Tigers are W5 L20 away to Sydney teams since 2022.

Grape – The team named as the home side has lost all three games between these sides on a Monday at CommBank Stadium.

50/50 – On a Monday since 1998, Parramatta’s record is W25 L28. Wests Tigers are W19 L23 on a Monday.

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