Into the sharp end of the season now, which also includes the Sharpe end for Newcastle too as the Knights are looking to upgrade their 2025 wooden spoon into silverware. There’s also the joy of first-time finalists Dolphins, who may not have a first name, nor are very good at scoring the first try, but they do know how to finish. There’s also the less exciting talking points of the Panthers and Roosters continuing their finals form. Talking about form, our NRL Finals Week 3 Tips, Predictions & Stats has all the form, H2H stats and facts you need to tip a winner or just to enjoy the weekend of rugby league on as many levels as possible.
Each week this season we have offered up a quick preview glance for each match, throw in a bunch of barely interesting stats, and mix in a pinch of opinion, plus throw in our weekly predictions as the final series is no different. Plus we have added finals stats and records.
NRL Finals Week 3 Tips
Here are our tips for the week ahead. How did we get to here? By going through all the visuals and stats below.
DOLPHINS by 8
PENRITH by 12
Related
NRL Finals Week 3 Ratings
COMING SOON – AWAITING TEAM NEWS
We take all the H2H Stats, 2026 Form, each team’s records on certain days, grounds and more and mash the numbers together to come up with a H2H Ratings for each game. It’s a quick and easy way of blaming someone else for incorrect tips. This week’s offering is below.
NRL Finals Week 3 Tips Game by Game Stats
Looking for a cheat sheet for the weekend’s upcoming games? Here’s as much information that we could cram into one size fits all visual. How about a bunch of barely interesting stats? All you need and want is below.
FRIDAY 8PM – DOLPHINS v ROOSTERS @ Suncorp Stadium
STATS:
DOL+ > Dolphins have won their last two v Roosters, both in 2026, and by a combined 74-22.
DOL+ > Dolphins have won eight in a row for the second time this season, and have won 16 of their last 18 games.
DOL+ > Dolphins have won eight in a row at Suncorp Stadium.
DOL+? > Dolphins have won four in a row at Suncorp Stadium on a Friday. It took them until their third season to win their first there on a Friday.
DOL+? > The last six times Ray Stone has scored, the Dolphins have won the match.
DOL+ > Dolphins have won seven in a row on a Friday.
DOL+ > Dolphins have won five in a row on a Friday v Sydney teams.
DOL- > Dolphins have scored the third lowest number of opening tries this with seven. Roosters are equal first for scoring the first try (17).
ROO+ > Roosters have won seven of their last eight games v Qld sides as the away side.
ROO+ > Roosters have won six of their last seven games v Qld sides at Suncorp Stadium on a Friday.
ROO? > Roosters are W3 L3 away on a Friday this season.
ROO- > Roosters are W1 L2 at Suncorp Stadium this season – beating the Broncos like many others – but losing to Cowboys and Dolphins.
ROO- > Roosters have lost 12 of their last 13 away finals match and have won only four of 21 away finals matches since 1998.
ROO- > Roosters are W6 L5 for finals games v Qld opposition but are W1 L3 for away games.
FINAL WORD: There’s no team left in form like the Dolphins, and they didn’t seem too overawed in their first ever finals game. But their opponents are finals hardened and have a good record at Suncorp Stadium. But not quite as good as the Dolphins’ home record. A full house and momentum will get them home late.
SUNDAY 4PM – PENRITH v NEWCASTLE @ CommBank Stadium
STATS:
PEN+ > Penrith have won nine of their last ten games v Newcastle, with the last two games seeing the Panthers score 40+ points and concede exactly 12 points.
PEN+ > Penrith have won eight of their last nine on a Sunday v Newcastle. However, the overall home record on a Sunday v Newcastle is W2 L6 since 1998.
PEN+ > Penrith have won 18 of their last 19 home games on a Sunday.
PEN+ > Penrith have won all five home games on a Sunday at CommBank Stadium. Penrith have also won all five way games on a Sunday at CommBank Stadium.
PEN+ > Penrith are W8 L2 at home at CommBank Stadium in 2026.
PEN+ > Penrith have won 15 of their last 16 finals matches.
PEN+ > Penrith have won 11 straight finals home games.
PEN+ > Penrith’s record for finals games at home on a Sunday is W9 L1.
PEN- > Penrith’s record at home v non-Sydney clubs is W4 L5 since 2025.
NEW+ > Newcastle have now won their last two away finals games and their last two Sunday finals matches.
NEW+ > Newcastle have won two of the last three Panthers home games away from Penrith Stadium.
NEW+ > Newcastle have won four of their last five away games.
NEW- > Newcastle have won two of 11 finals matches away to Sydney teams since 1998.
NEW? > Newcastle are W4 L4 away on a Sunday this season, but lost the previous eight before 2026.
NEW? > Newcastle are W3 L4 on a Sunday v Sydney teams this season, but won just one of the previous ten games before that.
FINAL WORD: Newcastle have been super impressive this finals series, but Penrith’s record in finals, at home, at home on a Sunday, at CommBank Stadium on a Sunday and recent record v Newcastle will stop the Knight’s glorious finals run.
NRL Finals Week 3 General Stats
OVERALL FINALS RECORD
FINALS COMPARISON to 2026 SEASON
2026 Season Stats…..up to Round 27
Your one-stop shop for stats and stuff from the 2026 NRL season.
LADDER AND FORM
Current ladder and latest form with a 2026 progress chart.
RESULTS
All the form of Home v Away, Top v Bottom sides and Happy v Sad Days.
POINTS
Lots of points of interest.
HALVES
A tale of two halves and all the stats we can find relating to them.
TRIES – ALL, FIRST AND LAST
Overall try scoring stats with a focus on first and last try scorer in case folk like a wager.
