NRL | 2026 NRL Round 3 Ratings and Late Mail

Been too distracted by mega sulks from dropped NRL players? Been too crowded from a pitch invasion to read the form guide? Do you need some last-minute NRL tipping advice? Or simply want something else to blame when the tips go wrong? Either way, The Gurgler’s 2026 NRL Round 3 Ratings and Late Mail is here to deliver a little help.

In addition to our huge stable of NRL stats and tipping gear, we have used all the stats we have, smashed them against each other like atoms, and come up with a H2H rating as dangerous to the outside world as Chernobyl.

We include lots of things, and add to it as the season progresses, come up with a magic number for each team, then slice up the scores out of 100% between the two sides. The bigger the percentage, the more likely to win.

And always, Win Early, Win Often.

2026 NRL Round 4 Ratings

Here are the latest H2H ratings and winners for the big weekend of NRL action ahead. 

2026 NRL Round 4 Late Mail

Now we go through every game pointing out the good and the grape (a different way of saying not so great). Be it stats, players ins and outs, or any word on the street we can share.

THU 8pm – MANLY 27% v ROOSTERS 73%

Good: Roosters have won the last three v Manly.

Good: Billy Smith is back.

Grape: Manly have a dreadful record on a Thursday – overall it’s W6 L18. At home it’s better at W5 L8. Only the Warriors have a worse win % than Manly’s 25% on a Thursday.

Unsure: Manly were dreadful last match v Newcastle. But had a bye last weekend.

FRI 6pm – WAHS 82% v WESTS TIGERS 18%

Good: Warriors record v Tigers: Warriors have won nine straight v Wests Tigers.

Good: Plus, Warriors have won five straight at home v Wests Tigers. Warriors have on all three home games v Wests Tigers on a Friday.

Good: Warriors have won both home games this season and scored 40+.

Grape: Tigers record on a Friday:  it’s 13 losses in a row home or away on a Friday.

Grape: Tigers record away: Wests Tigers have lost five away games in a row.

Grape: Tigers record away on a Friday: Wests Tigers have lost ten Friday away games in a row.

Grape: Tigers losing Jarome Luai, and questions on just how fit Adam Doueihi is.

FRI 8pm – BRISBANE 50.6% v DOLPHINS 49.4%

Good: Brisbane H2H. Lead 5-1 overall and unbeaten in three games as the home side and on a Friday.

Good: Brisbane v Qld sides on a Friday, Brisbane have won nine games in a row v Queensland opposition on a Friday. Brisbane have won ten in a row at home on a Friday

Good: Adam Reynolds In

Good: Tom Flegler and Francis Molo In

Good: Ray Stone

Grape: Payne Haas Out

Grape: Dolphins have lost all four games on a Friday at Suncorp Stadium v Qld opposition.

SAT 3pm – BULLDOGS v NEWCASTLE @ Accor Stadium

Good: Bulldogs H2H – Bulldogs have won three in a row v Newcastle, and the Knights scored 0 and 2 in the last two of those games.

Good: Fletcher Sharpe returns.

Good: Saturday form for both sides: Bulldogs were W6 L1 on a Saturday last season. Newcastle won their last three Saturday away games in 2025. They only won four away games in 2025 and three of them were on a Saturday.

Grape: Newcastle missing Kalyn Ponga and Dylan Brown and Trey Mooney

SAT 5:30pm – PENRITH v PARRAMATTA @ CommBank Stadium

Good: Penrith are conceding at less than four points a game this season.

Good: Penrith have won their last four games v Parramatta, the last three were at CommBank Stadium.

Good: Penrith have won their last six games on a Saturday.

Grape: J’maine Hopgood out for the year with injury.

Grape: Parramatta have lost seven straight away games on a Saturday, with a last win in 2023.

SAT 7:30pm – NORTH QUEENSLAND v MELBOURNE

Good: North Queensland have not too bad a record at home to Melbourne. W5 L6 from their last 11 matches, and margins aren’t too large when they lose.

Good: Trent Loiero is back for Melbourne, Kyle Laybutt is back for the Cowboys.

Good: North Queensland have not too bad a record at home to Melbourne. W5 L6 from their last 11 matches, and margins aren’t too large when they lose.

Grape: North Queensland have lost their last four home games on a Saturday.

Unsure: Melbourne record away to Qld sides since 2022 is W8 L7 but then Melbourne have won four in a row on the road to Qld sides on a Saturday.

Unsure: Melbourne did lose last weekend and the Cowboy won, but unsure if the Storm loss made Craig Bellamy mad, or really mad, and how that affects both sides.

SUN 4pm – CANBERRA v CRONULLA

Good: Cronulla have won four of the last five v Canberra.

Good: Cronulla have won their last three games v Canberra on a Sunday.

Good: Canberra have won nine of their last 11 at home v Sydney teams.

Grape: Both underwhelming last weekend, Sharks more so.

Grape: Both underwhelming last weekend, Sharks more so.

Grape: Questionable coaches box glass.

SUN 6:15pm – GOLD COAST v ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA

Good: It’s the last game of the weekend in a time slot that easily forgotten.

Good: Dragons have won the last three v Gold Coast and five of the last six.

Grape: Gold Coast are the worst team on a Sunday in recent seasons, and Dragons are one of the worst teams away.

Grape: Gold Coast have lost 15 games in a row on a Sunday.

Grape: Dragons have lost nine away games in a row.

Unsure: No team changes despite losses.

Other 2026 NRL Round 4 Preview & Round 3 Review Stuff