NRL | 2026 NRL Round 3 Ratings and Late Mail

Been too distracted by mega sulks from dropped NRL players? Been too crowded from a pitch invasion to read the form guide? Do you need some last-minute NRL tipping advice? Or simply want something else to blame when the tips go wrong? Either way, The Gurgler’s 2026 NRL Round 3 Ratings and Late Mail is here to deliver a little help.

In addition to our huge stable of NRL stats and tipping gear, we have used all the stats we have, smashed them against each other like atoms, and come up with a H2H rating as dangerous to the outside world as Chernobyl.

We include lots of things, and add to it as the season progresses, come up with a magic number for each team, then slice up the scores out of 100% between the two sides. The bigger the percentage, the more likely to win.

And always, Win Early, Win Often.

2026 NRL Round 3 Ratings

Here are the latest H2H ratings and winners for the big weekend of NRL action ahead. 

2026 NRL Round 3 Late Mail

Now we go through every game pointing out the good and the grape (a different way of saying not so great). Be it stats, players ins and outs, or any word on the street we can share.

THU 8pm – CANBERRA 65% v BULLDOGS 35%

Canberra having the recent H2H advantage helps the Raiders ahead on the Ratings here.

Good: 

CAN: Good recent record v Bulldogs – before the Bulldogs win in Canberra last season it was six straight wins for Canberra.
CAN: Canberra have won the only Thursday clash v Bulldogs.
CAN: Josh Papali’i returns.
BUL: Big comeback win over Raiders last season in Canberra might still play on minds of the Raiders.

Grape:

BUL: Bronson Xerri saga.
BUL: Away form? Bulldogs ended 2025 with four straight away losses.

FRI 6pm – ROOSTERS 43% v PENRITH 57%

An indifferent start to the season for the Roosters and poor form against Penrith tips the ratings toward the Panthers.

Good: 

PEN: H2H Form – Penrith have won 12 of their last 13 clashes with the Roosters.
PEN: Have conceded just six points for far in two games.
ROO: Friday’s are all right – The Roosters have won all three Friday clashes v Penrith at the SFS. Going back to 2017, the Roosters have won 13 of their last 14 games at the SFS on a Friday v all teams. Going back to 2014, the Roosters have won 17 of their last 18 games at the SFS on a Friday v Sydney teams.
PEN: Liam Martin returns.
ROO: Reece Robson to make Roosters debut.

Grape: 

ROO: Roosters home form v Penrith – The Roosters have lost five straight as the home side v Penrith.

FRI 8pm – MELBOURNE 68% v BRISBANE 32%

Mainly Brisbane’s (and Queensland teams’) bad record in Melbourne sees them on the Ratings outer, but an 0/2 start to the season doesn’t hurt.

Good:

MEL: Brilliant record at home – Since 2020, Melbourne’s record at AAMI Park on a Friday v any team is W16 L2.
MEL: Brilliant record at home v Brisbane – Melbourne have won nine in a row at AAMI Park vs Brisbane, with a last loss ten years ago in 2016.
MEL: Brilliant record at home v Qld – Melbourne have won 17 in a row at AAMI Park on any day v Queensland opposition.
MEL: Trent Loiero returns.
MEL: Sualauvi Faalogo a very good replacement for Paps.

BRI: Poor record in Melbourne.
BRI: Adam Reynolds out.
BRI: Not playing great.

SAT 3pm – NEWCASTLE 43% v WAHS 57%

Ratings advantage to Warriors seems like a bit of a hangover to Newcastle’s terrible 2025.

Good:

NEW: Strong 2/2 start to the season.
WAHS: Strong 2/2 start to the season.

Grape: 

NEW: Key injuries to star players – Dylan Brown, Kalyn Ponga
WAHS: Key injuries to star players – Chanel Harris-Tavita, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad

SAT 5:30pm – CRONULLA 63% v DOLPHINS 37%

Cronulla’s unbeaten run at home and the Dolphins weak-ish Sydney form tips the fin battle towards the Sharks.

Good: 

CRO – Great home form – Cronulla are on a run of eight straight wins at home. Cronulla were W10 L2 at home in 2025. Both losses were on a Saturday. Cronulla have won their last four games at Shark Park v Qld opposition.
CRO – Teig Wilton returns.
DOL – First win under belt, despite not playing great in Round 2.
DOL – Ray Stone.

Grape: 

DOL – Terrible interstate away record – Dolphins have lost all four games on a Saturday in Sydney v Sydney teams. Dolphins are 0/7 for Saturday away games not in Qld.
CRO – Not great against Penrith last weekend.
DOL – Injury concerns about Tom Flegler again.

SAT 7:30pm – SOUTH SYDNEY 76% v WESTS TIGERS 24% @ Central Coast Stadium

Souths H2H dominance and the Wests Tigers poor Saturday form gives the Rabbitohs a huge Ratings advantage.

Good: 

SOU – Souths recent form v Wests Tigers, they have won nine of their last 11.
SOU – Jamie Humphreys returns.
SOU – Alex Johnston try scoring feat done and dusted.
WTI – Bunty Afoa returns.

Grape: 

WTI – Taylan May is out.
WTI – Bad away form on a Saturday – Wests Tigers have lost 13 of their last 14 away to any team on a Saturday. Wests Tigers have lost six in a row v Sydney opposition away on a Saturday and lost 11 of their last 12.

SUN 4pm – PARRAMATTA 67% v ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA 33%

Parramatta doing better of the two recently with H2H, and the Dragons Sunday and away form is bad.

Good: 

PAR: J’maine Hopgood returns.
PAR: Better H2H stats recently – Parramatta have won their last four at home to the Dragons.
PAR: H2H advantage on a Sunday – Parramatta are W7 L2 v Dragons at home on a Sunday.

Grape:

STI: Despite being generally competitive still 0/2.
STI: Away form not great – and against Sydney teams. Dragons were W2 L10 away last season v all teams. Plus, Dragons were W1 L6 v Sydney teams away last season.
STI: The Dragons have lost 11 of their last 12 games on a Sunday v Sydney teams.
PAR: Parra form v Sydney teams not much better Parramatta lost all five games last season v Sydney clubs on a Sunday. Three of those games were at home.

SUN 6:15pm – NORTH QUEENSLAND 67% v GOLD COAST 33%

Neither team is going well so far, but the Cowboys have a great H2H over the Gold Coast, and the Titans seem to dislike playing ion Sundays.

Good: 

NQL: Reuben Cotter should play this week.
GCT: Jayden Campbell should play this week.
NQL: North Queensland have won 12 of their last 13 home games v Gold Coast.

Grape:

GCT: Bad away record v Cowboys as above.
GCT: Gold Coast have lost 14 Sunday games in a row and Gold Coast have lost eight away games in a row on a Sunday.
NQL: Cowboys have conceded the second highest total of points in 2026 so far with 72 points.

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