NRL | 2026 NRL Round 2 Ratings and Late Mail

Been too distracted by the six agains? Do you need some last-minute NRL tipping advice? Or simply want something else to blame when the tips go wrong? Either way, The Gurgler’s 2026 NRL Round 2 Ratings and Late Mail is here to deliver a little help.

In addition to our huge stable of NRL stats and tipping gear, we have used all the stats we have, smashed them against each other like atoms, and come up with a H2H rating as dangerous to the outside world as Chernobyl.

We include lots of things, and add to it as the season progresses, come up with a magic number for each team, then slice up the scores out of 100% between the two sides. The bigger the percentage, the more likely to win.

And always, Win Early, Win Often.

2026 NRL Round 2 Ratings

Here are the latest H2H ratings and winners for the big weekend of NRL action ahead.

2026 NRL Round 2 Late Mail

Now we go through every game pointing out the good and the grape (a different way of saying not so great). Be it stats, players ins and outs, or any word on the street we can share.

THURSDAY 8pm – BRISBANE 56% v PARRAMATTA 44%

Good:

Ezra Mam being named to start at five eighth, especially after they scored zero the week before.

Brisbane won both of their Thursday home games in 2025.

Parramatta at Suncorp Stadium isn’t bad at all – they won this fixture last season at Suncorp Stadium. Parramatta have won four of the last five games v Brisbane at Suncorp Stadium. Plus the Eels are W3 L1 for games v Brisbane at Suncorp Stadium on a Thursday.

Josh Addo-Carr IN.

Grape:

Brisbane’s win rate is 42% v Sydney teams at Suncorp Stadium since 2020. Overall it is 50%.

Payne Haas’ signing for Souths in 2027 is going to be talking point with every loss this season.

J’maine Hopgood OUT

FRIDAY 6pm – WAHS 46% v CANBERRA 54%

Good:

Matthew Timoko IN

Players with the name Ethan.

Canberra on a Friday – Canberra have won their last five Friday games and Canberra have won their last four away games on a Friday too.

Warriors win last weekend was mightily impressive, enough to need zero changes to the line up.

Grape:

Josh Papalii OUT

Warriors haven’t won back to back home games at Mt Smart since Round 7 last year.

FRIDAY 8pm – ROOSTERS 53% v SOUTH SYDNEY 47%

Good:

An unbeaten 10/10 against South Sydney at the Sydney Football Stadium on a Friday.

Roosters v Souths on a Friday, and recently – Roosters have won five of the last six games v South Sydney, won five of the last six games v South Sydney at the Sydney Football Stadium, including the last three and won six of the last seven games v South Sydney on a Friday.

Roosters at home on a Friday too v all teams – they have won 12 of their last 13 at the Sydney Football Stadium on a Friday.

Robert Toia IN.

Souths looked nearly back to their best last weekend with returning players. Especially Latrell Mitchell and Cody Walker.

Potential of Alex Johnston breaking try scoring record.

Grape:

Never beating the Roosters on a Friday at the Sydney Football Stadium since 1998.

Souths away on a Friday too – South Sydney lost all five away games on a Friday last season.

In Between:

Jayden Sullivan in for Ashton Ward at halfback.

SATURDAY 3pm – WESTS TIGERS 42% v NORTH QUEENSLAND 58%

Good:

Lots of points – The last six games between these sides have averaged 71 points and the last four games between these sides at Leichhardt average 72 points.

Cowboys recent record v Tigers – North Queensland have won the last five games v Wests Tigers and North Queensland have won the last two, and three of the last four games v Tigers at Leichhardt.

Both sides are well rested, not playing last weekend. Tigers didn’t have to travel to the USA to get that week off.

Benji Marshall selecting Heamasi Makasini to play. Kai Pearce-Paul to make his Tigers debut.

Grape:

Cowboys effort in Las Vegas in Round 1.

Bye-Bye wins – Wests Tigers have won just once after a bye since they were re-introduced in 2023.

SATURDAY 5:30pm – ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA 34% v MELBOURNE 68%

Good:

St George Illawarra have won the last two games v Melbourne.

Melbourne have won the last three games v St George Illawarra at Win Stadium.

Melbourne’s effort last weekend v Parramatta.

Grape:

Melbourne’s record v Sydney teams on a Saturday – since 2021 it is a win rate of 54%, and they lost three of four games in 2025. Overall Melbourne’s record v Sydney teams since 2021 is 70%.

It isn’t Round 1 – Melbourne are only W6 L4 in Round 2 games going back to 2015.

Dragons have had to travel back from the USA.

SATURDAY 7:30pm – PENRITH 49% v CRONULLA 51%

Good:

Penrith have recently dominated Cronulla – they have won five in a row v Cronulla and nine of the last ten games. Cronulla have scored zero three times in that run.

Both clubs had strong wins last weekend with strong defence.

Both sides are settled too. Winning helps.

Grape:

That Cronulla record v Penrith is hard to ignore.

In Between:

Penrith are W6 L5 at Bathurst. That improves to W6 L4 on a Saturday.

SUNDAY 4pm – MANLY 66% v NEWCASTLE 34%

Good:

Manly good at home to Newcastle – Manly’s record v Newcastle as the home side is W14 D1 L2 from the last 17 games. At Brookvale since 1998 it is W12 L4.

Grape:

Newcastle’s Sunday form in 2025 and beyond – Newcastle have lost their last eight away games on a Sunday. Newcastle have lost all seven away games on a Sunday v Sydney teams across 2024 and 2025.

Siosiua Taukeiaho OUT.

Fletcher Sharpe OUT – although Sandon Smith did equally well when filling in.

In Between:

The record for team that played in Las Vegas in Round 2 in 2024 and 2025 is W5 L3.

SUNDAY 6:15pm – DOLPHINS 69% v GOLD COAST 31%

Good:

Dolphins are W5 L1 v Gold Coast.

Dolphins still scored 30 points despite not playing that well.

Max Plath and Ray Stone return.

Grape:

Trai Fuller will hopefully be played more this weekend, otherwise the Dolphins might struggle to keep him when he goes off contract.

Some bad away form for the Titans – Gold Coast have lost their last seven away games on a Sunday v all teams and they have lost their last seven away games in Round 2.

In Between:

The Titans haven’t made a change from a side beaten 50-10 last weekend.

Other 2026 NRL Round 2 Preview Stuff