Been too distracted by the bright lights of Las Vegas or the many Elvis impersonators? Do you need some last-minute NRL tipping advice? Or simply want something else to blame when the tips go wrong? Either way, saddle up for The Gurgler’s 2026 NRL Round 1 Ratings and Late Mail.
In a new additional to our stable of NRL stats and tipping products, we have used all the stats we have, smashed them against each other like atoms, and come up with a H2H rating.
It includes this year’s form with a bias because it is this year, but we don’t forget historic stats of the H2H against this week’s opponents, and the ground and day the teams are playing on, plus their record v top and lower half teams.
Then slice up the scores out of 100% between the two sides. The bigger the percentage, the more likely to win.
2026 NRL Round 1 Ratings
Here are the H2H ratings and winners for the second last weekend of the regular season.
2026 NRL Round 1 Earlyish Mail
Normally this is our late mail, but with the gams not until Sunday morning Australian time, the mail is kind of early.
SAT – NEWCASTLE v NORTH QUEENSLAND
Kalyn Ponga is in for the Newcastle Knights, which is usually a good thing, although having missed a chunk of the end of last season, who knows if it is. Having spent $13M on one player for the next decade, Dylan Brown was always going to be selected in the run-on team, no even Newcastle are that silly, but the question is who would be his partner in crime. Roosters recruit Sandon Smith or Fletcher Sharpe. It is Sharpe who gets the gig, with Smith on the bench, which is probably not what he was hoping for after moving away from DCE and the Roosters. At their best the Knights three quarter line could do some damage, so maybe Newcastle don’t look as busted arse as usual. Although their forwards look like they’ll get the Heart Foundation tick of approval for leanness after losing a few key forward in the off season.
The halves were also a dilemma for the Cowboys with Jake Clifford getting the nod at five eighth, but Jaxon Purdue is good enough to cover Zac Laybutt’s absence in the centres. New recruit Reed Mahoney lines up at hooker for the Cowboys and will prove to be one of the buys of the season.
As for stats the Cowboys have won five straight v Newcastle but worth noting that five of those games were in Townsville. Luckily this game is in Las Vegas, as Newcastle usually have a poor record v Queensland sides away from home. Newcastle were W1 L2 v Qld teams away last season. Which is better than their run of 19 straight losses between June 2015 and June 2023. If you exclude the Dolphins it’s even worse. North Queensland have won one of their last four Round 1 fixtures v non Qld teams.
SAT – BULLDOGS v ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA
After the usual obsession, and potential injury scares, Matt Burton and Lachlan Galvin line up in the halves for the Bulldogs in Las Vegas. Matt Burton looked no hope of playing when went off injured in the pre-season, but will start now. If he somehow doesn’t make it, Sean O’Sullivan can cover, but is likely to fill his similar role at Redcliffe as a warmer of benches. The forward pack looks as good as last year, which is a shame for the Bulldogs as it means new recruit Leo Thompson won’t be joining in for a while due to injury.
As for stats, the Bulldogs have a great recent record v Dragons. Bulldogs have won five straight v St George Illawarra and the Bulldogs have won nine of the last ten games v Dragons on a Saturday. Saturdays are good for the Bulldogs in general as they were 6/7 on a Saturday last season. St George Illawarra were W4 L10 on a Saturday in 2025. St George Illawarra were W2 L10 away from home last season, with a run of seven straight losses to end the season. Bulldogs won six of their first seven away games in 2025, then lost five of the last six away. Not forgetting that in 2023 the Dragons won no away games, and the overall record going back to 2023 is seven wins from 36 games.
Other 2026 NRL Round 1 Preview Stuff
Here’s the best of our wrap ups of last weekend and look forward to this weekend.
NRL ROUND 1 PREDICTIONS N STATS
NRL DONKEY ROUND 1 EXPERT TIPS AND RANT
2025 NRL Season Stats
Well given these are the first games of the season there’s no current season stats to share. So here’s the best of last season.
