The 2026 NRL Season is almost here and continuing The Gurgler’s huge pile of NRL Preview gear is our 2026 NRL Season Forecast Ratings.
What is our 2026 NRL Season Forecast Ratings I hear you ask? Well, first of all thanks for asking.
Secondly, we decided that a normal NRL season preview isn’t nearly complex enough, so we have taken various stats over various periods, applied various calculations, included various visuals and used the numbers to come up with a 2026 NRL Season ladder in advance.
Not only do we have a 2026 final ladder in advance, but we have included some barely interesting visuals for each category.
But do read on, for some barely interesting NRL pre-season content.
2026 NRL Season Forecast Ratings
So below is the final NRL Ladder for 2026 according to our calculations. There are a few changes from 2025, but not as much as you’d think.
How did we get to that? Thanks for asking. We took each team’s record over the past 1, 3 and 5 years for Days played, Day v Night, v Opposition State location, v Opposition H2H, v Top/Bottom teams, and form when splitting the season into three around Origin.
With a bias towards more recent results, but also a calculation on improvement over the past few seasons, we came up with a past rating. We then calculated a 2026 rating based on how many times they play that day, at night v certain opposition etc in 2026. We finally applied an addition/subtraction multiplier based on 2026 squad improvements through recruitment or returns from long term injuries.
The ratings points are calculated as a proportion against the total number points available over the 2026 season for the final ladder.
Sounds overly complicated to get a predicted 2026 NRL Ladder? Of course it is. You wouldn’t have it any other way.
2026 NRL Season Forecast – 2026 Predicted Ladder
| Canberra | 40 |
| Roosters | 36 |
| Brisbane | 36 |
| Dolphins | 36 |
| Melbourne | 36 |
| Penrith | 34 |
| Bulldogs | 34 |
| Cronulla | 32 |
| Warriors | 30 |
| Wests Tigers | 28 |
| Parramatta | 26 |
| South Sydney | 26 |
| Manly Warringah | 24 |
| North Queensland | 24 |
| St George Illawarra | 20 |
| Gold Coast | 12 |
| Newcastle | 12 |
2026 NRL Season Forecast – Pre/During/Post Origin Form.
Points of Interests:
- Bulldogs averaged 1.8 points per game before Origin in 2035 and under one point per game thereafter.
- Canberra and Melbourne were perfect in 2025 over the Origin period. Souths’ win % was zero over the same period.
- Cronulla and Brisbane had the best post-Origin form. Both made the final four in the finals.
RATINGS CALCULATION
| Team | Rating |
| Melbourne | 100% |
| Penrith | 98% |
| Canberra | 94% |
| Brisbane | 94% |
| Cronulla | 93% |
| Roosters | 88% |
| Manly Warringah | 77% |
| Dolphins | 74% |
| Warriors | 73% |
| Bulldogs | 73% |
| Parramatta | 70% |
| North Queensland | 69% |
| South Sydney | 67% |
| Newcastle | 54% |
| Wests Tigers | 52% |
| St George Illawarra | 52% |
| Gold Coast | 47% |
2026 NRL Season Forecast – Stats by Day
Points of Interests:
- Both Newcastle and Gold Coast lost all their Sunday games in 2025 – 19 games in total between the two.
- Penrith got better as the weekend progressed in 2025.
- The Dragon being perfect on a Sunday in 2025 was surprising. Although it was only one game.
RATINGS CALCULATION
| Team | Rating |
| Melbourne | 100% |
| Penrith | 93% |
| Canberra | 92% |
| Cronulla | 89% |
| Brisbane | 87% |
| Roosters | 82% |
| Warriors | 74% |
| St George Illawarra | 72% |
| Bulldogs | 68% |
| Manly Warringah | 68% |
| South Sydney | 65% |
| North Queensland | 64% |
| Dolphins | 62% |
| Parramatta | 60% |
| Wests Tigers | 45% |
| Newcastle | 44% |
| Gold Coast | 39% |
2026 NRL Season Forecast – Stats by Day/Night
Points of Interests:
- Gold Coast and Newcastle were the vampires of the competition in 2025 with a large bias towards night fixtures.
- Penrith were twice as good during the day than night in 2025.
RATINGS CALCULATION
| Team | Rating |
| Melbourne | 100% |
| Canberra | 97% |
| Brisbane | 94% |
| Cronulla | 91% |
| Bulldogs | 82% |
| Penrith | 82% |
| Roosters | 81% |
| Warriors | 80% |
| Manly Warringah | 76% |
| Dolphins | 75% |
| North Queensland | 68% |
| Parramatta | 66% |
| South Sydney | 61% |
| Wests Tigers | 60% |
| St George Illawarra | 54% |
| Gold Coast | 46% |
| Newcastle | 38% |
2026 NRL Season Forecast – Stats by Opposition Top/Low
Points of Interests:
- Newcastle scored no competition points against top eight sides in 2025.
- Broncos went better against better opposition.
RATINGS CALCULATION
| Team | Rating |
| Melbourne | 100% |
| Cronulla | 92% |
| Brisbane | 92% |
| Canberra | 91% |
| Penrith | 89% |
| Bulldogs | 80% |
| Roosters | 79% |
| Warriors | 77% |
| Manly Warringah | 71% |
| North Queensland | 70% |
| Dolphins | 67% |
| Parramatta | 64% |
| South Sydney | 58% |
| Newcastle | 54% |
| St George Illawarra | 52% |
| Wests Tigers | 45% |
| Gold Coast | 41% |
2026 NRL Season Forecast – Stats by Opposition Location
Points of Interests:
- Brisbane were unbeaten against Qld teams in 2025.
- Melbourne were best against Sydney teams. Dragons were the worst.
RATINGS CALCULATION
| Team | Rating |
| Melbourne | 100% |
| Canberra | 98% |
| Brisbane | 92% |
| Cronulla | 90% |
| Penrith | 89% |
| Bulldogs | 81% |
| Roosters | 78% |
| Warriors | 77% |
| Manly Warringah | 75% |
| Dolphins | 71% |
| North Queensland | 66% |
| Parramatta | 61% |
| South Sydney | 52% |
| St George Illawarra | 49% |
| Wests Tigers | 49% |
| Newcastle | 44% |
| Gold Coast | 38% |
2026 NRL Season Forecast – Stats by Opposition
Points of Interests:
- North Queensland are the only teams where Melbourne have a win % of 50% or worse.
- Warriors and Wests Tigers are the only teams where the Gold Coast have a win % over 50%.
- Every team has a win % of 50% or better v Wests Tigers over last five seasons.
RATINGS CALCULATION
| Team | Rating |
| Penrith | 100% |
| Melbourne | 100% |
| Brisbane | 82% |
| Cronulla | 82% |
| Roosters | 82% |
| Canberra | 79% |
| North Queensland | 72% |
| Manly Warringah | 72% |
| Warriors | 71% |
| Parramatta | 66% |
| Dolphins | 64% |
| Newcastle | 63% |
| Bulldogs | 61% |
| South Sydney | 60% |
| St George Illawarra | 53% |
| Gold Coast | 46% |
| Wests Tigers | 39% |
