Been too distracted by the Grand Final hype? Or spending too long which team you should support as a neutral? Do you need some last-minute NRL tipping advice? Or simply want something else to blame when the tips go wrong? Either way, saddle up for The Gurgler’s 2025 NRL Grand Final Ratings and Late Mail.
In a new additional to our stable of NRL stats and tipping products, we have used all the stats we have, smashed them against each other like atoms, and come up with a H2H rating.
It includes this year’s form with a bias because it is this year, but we don’t forget historic stats of the H2H against this week’s opponents, and the ground and day the teams are playing on, plus their record v top and lower half teams and finals record split different ways.
Then slice up the scores out of 100% between the two sides. The bigger the percentage, the more likely to win.
2025 NRL Grand Final Ratings
Here are the H2H ratings and winner for the big game.
2025 NRL Grand Final Late Mail & Stats
Sunday Olympic Stadium Sydney 6:30pm – MELBOURNE v BRONCOS
Finals H2H (since 1998) – MELBOURNE 6 BRISBANE 3
Finals H2H in NSW – BRISBANE 2 MELBOURNE 0
Last Finals Match – 2023 @ Suncorp Stadium – BRISBANE 26 MELBOURNE 0
So Melbourne Storm v Brisbane Broncos it is. Not one for NSW fans, or neutrals really, but there is going to be a winner and here we are to help the decision making progress.
Stats are all over the place here for H2H.
Overall Melbourne have a very good record against Brisbane, the overall H2H since 1998 is Melbourne 44 Brisbane 15, with the last 10 seasons H2H well in the Storm’s favour at 19-4. But the last five games between the sides sees Melbourne lead the H2H by only 3-2.
And the most recent finals game between the sides ended 26-0 in Brisbane’s favour.
Overall in finals matches the Storm lead the Broncos by 6-3, but the Broncos have won the most recent finals game and are 2/2 for finals games v Melbourne in NSW. Including the 2006 NRL Grand Final triumph.
Away from finals Melbourne have won almost three times as many games, a deadly stat for the Broncos to overcome. But the Broncos do lead 9-8 for games on a Sunday, so that helps them. But the last Sunday game was back in 2018, and there have only been three since 2010.
Recent form goes to the Broncos who are on a run of six straight wins, and their post Origin win % is 80% v Melbourne’s 73%. The Storm lost their last two games of the regular season. Amazingly though, the last loss for both clubs was against each other.
Melbourne to be honest haven’t been as Melbourne Storm as they have been in previous season, and while Brisbane can be hot and cold, they usually produce both in each game, and those good bursts are good. Good enough to turn around finals game deficits to Canberra and Penrith. So if Brisbane don’t let Melbourne get too far away they have enough firepower to overcome a side not at their best.
Some interesting Grand Final stats too before signing off on the math and the homework.
Three of the last five Grand Finals have been won by the team that finished lower on the ladder.
The last NRL Grand Final to be played on October 5th saw Melbourne lose 40-0 to Manly,
The record for the team making the GF having finished the regular season 2nd is W7 L6 and the record for the team making the GF having finished the regular season 4th is W3 L3.
Nine times there has been a Grand Final without the Minor Premier – Melbourne have made the GF without a minor premier three times and won all three and only once has the lower ranked team won the GF – North Qld v Brisbane in 2015.
Looking at the teams and there’s one big change from last week to the 2025 NRL Grand Final. Patrick Carrigan returns to the Broncos team after a week off, giving the Broncos a little more muscle in the middle of the field and Carrigan has arguably been in the top three Broncos player this season.
Both sides have similar stories about key players making miracle recoveries to feature in games last weekend.
Jahrome Hughes’ injury looked the least likely to be able to recover in time, but there he was scoring a key try last weekend. Hughes’ return means Melbourne have their full strength backline together at last.
Broncos had their own halves returning last weekend with Adam Reynolds and Ezra Mam making returns. Whilst neither lit the game up, Adam Reynolds’ cool conversion to win the game highlighted his usefulness to the Broncos.
Ben Hunt is named to start again at five eighth, but one does wonder if that will hold on game day, given Ben Hunt hasn’t been great in the halves this season.
We can’t see anyone coming into the teams from outside the top 17, providing some hard luck stories for those who missed out. Broncos prop and Gurgler favourite Xavier Willison is probably lucky to be in the squad, as his reportable offence may have got him a stint away from the field if it were a regular season game not an NRL Grand Final.
At least Ashley Klein isn’t refereeing this one, giving the game a chance to run.
Melbourne
1. Ryan Papenhuyzen, 2. Will Warbrick, 3. Jack Howarth, 4. Nick Meaney, 5. Xavier Coates, 6. Cameron Munster, 7. Jahrome Hughes, 8. Stefano Utoikamanu, 9. Harry Grant, 10. Josh King, 11. Shawn Blore, 12. Eliesa Katoa, 13. Trent Loiero, 14. Tyran Wishart, 15. Ativalu Lisati, 16. Tui Kamikamica, 17. Alec MacDonald, 18. Grant Anderson, 19. Bronson Garlick, 20. Joe Chan, 21. Jonah Pezet, 22. Sualauvi Faalogo
Brisbane
1. Reece Walsh, 2. Josiah Karapani, 3. Kotoni Staggs, 4. Gehamat Shibasaki, 5. Deine Mariner, 6. Ben Hunt, 7. Adam Reynolds, 8. Corey Jensen, 9. Cory Paix, 10. Payne Haas, 11. Brendan Piakura, 12. Jordan Riki, 13. Patrick Carrigan, 14. Ezra Mam, 15. Kobe Hetherington, 16. Xavier Willison, 17. Tyson Smoothy, 18. Jesse Arthars, 19. Jack Gosiewski, 20. Ben Talty, 21. Selwyn Cobbo, 22. Jock Madden
2025 NRL Finals Stats
Answering the big questions ahead of the NRL Finals starting. Which teams have done best against their finals opponents. And so much more.
