More excited than a Brisbane sporting fan, with less NSW than this weekend’s non-NSW Grand Final match, and ready for big dancing, it’s our 2025 NRL Grand Final Tips Predictions & Stats Preview.
Our NRL Finals edition of our weekly tips blab is a quick preview glance for each match, a bunch of barely interesting stats, a pinch of opinion, and some bonus finals and 2025 season stats. It’s all you can eat NRL stats.
2025 NRL Grand Final Tips
Here are our tips for the week ahead. How did we get to here? By going through all the visuals and stats below.
BRISBANE by 8
2025 NRL Grand Final Tips Match Analysis
Looking for a cheat sheet for the weekend’s upcoming games?
What about some finals stats? Or some barely interesting facts?
Here’s as much information that we could cram into one size fits all visual.
Finals record goes back to 1998.
SUN 6:30pm – MELBOURNE v BRISBANE @ Accor Stadium
Finals H2H (since 1998) – MELBOURNE 6 BRISBANE 3
Finals H2H in NSW – BRISBANE 2 MELBOURNE 0
Last Finals Match – 2023 @ Suncorp Stadium – BRISBANE 26 MELBOURNE 0
This Sunday’s NRL Grand Final will be the 60th meeting between these sides since 1998, and will equal the record for most matches played in the NRL era, which is currently Brisbane v North Queensland.
Brisbane and Melbourne have met in Sydney twice since 1998, it’s two wins for the Broncos. One game was the 2006 Grand Final and a 15-8 win for the Broncos, the other a finals clash at the Sydney Football Stadium in 1998 where Brisbane won 30-6.
Melbourne lead the Finals H2H v Brisbane by six wins to three overall.
Broncos lead the H2H record v Melbourne on a Sunday by 9-8.
Melbourne have won their last five trips to NSW and their 2025 record in NSW was W7 L2.
Brisbane’s 2025 record in NSW was W3 L2.
Melbourne’s record in NSW for finals is not great. They have won just one of their last six finals games in NSW, and their overall record is W4 L10.
Brisbane’s record in NSW finals is even worse. They have lost their last four finals games in NSW and overall record is W3 L11.
Brisbane have won their last five Sunday games and are W5 L2 overall on a Sunday this season. They are W3 L1 away on a Sunday in 2025.
Melbourne won their only away game on a Sunday this season. Overall on a Sunday in 2025 it is W5 L1.
Melbourne are W7 L3 for games at the Olympic Stadium since 2020.
Melbourne are W3 L5 for games at the Olympic Stadium since 2020.
Brisbane have won six in a row coming into this match, with their last loss against Melbourne.
Melbourne have won two in a row coming into this game with a last loss against Brisbane.
More 2025 NRL Grand Final Stats
Three of the last five Grand Finals have been won by the team that finished lower on the ladder.
Since 1998 there have been three non Sydney Grand Finals:
- 2006 Brisbane 15 Melbourne 8
- 2015 North Qld 17 Brisbane 16
- 2017 Melbourne 36 North Qld 6
There have been three Grand Finals played on October 5th:
- 2003 Penrith 18 Roosters 6
- 2008 Manly 40 Melbourne 0
- 2014 South Sydney 30 Bulldogs 6
Second v Fourth meeting in the Grand Final has happened only once since 1998:
- 2019 Roosters 14 Canberra 8
Nine times there has been a Grand Final without the Minor Premier:
- Melbourne have made the GF without a minor premier three times and won all three.
- Only once has the lower ranked team won the GF – North Qld v Brisbane in 2015.
The record for the team making the GF having finished the regular season 2nd is W7 L6.
The record for the team making the GF having finished the regular season 4th is W3 L3.
The Grand Final winners day of last game before the GF for the last 10 GFs is:
- Friday three times
- Saturday six times
- Sunday once
For the last ten Grand Finals, the team that won the previous game in the season:
- Won the GF four times
- Lost the GF six times
More Stats – 2025 v Final Comparison
Here are some team stats from the 2025 season, compared to each team’s finals efforts so far.
More Stats – 2025 Season Stats
Here are some of the best stats from the 2025 NRL season.
