Been too distracted by straight set defeats? Do you need some last-minute NRL tipping advice? Or simply want something else to blame when the tips go wrong? Either way, saddle up for The Gurgler’s NRL Finals Week 3 Ratings and Late Mail.
In a new additional to our stable of NRL stats and tipping products, we have used all the stats we have, smashed them against each other like atoms, and come up with a H2H rating.
It includes this year’s form with a bias because it is this year, but we don’t forget historic stats of the H2H against this week’s opponents, and the ground and day the teams are playing on, plus their record v top and lower half teams and finals record split different ways.
Then slice up the scores out of 100% between the two sides. The bigger the percentage, the more likely to win.
2025 NRL Finals Week 3 Ratings
Here are the H2H ratings and winners for the second week of the finals.
2025 NRL Finals Week 3 Late Mail & Stats
Friday AAMI Park 8pm – MELBOURNE v CRONULLA
Finals H2H (since 1998) – MELBOURNE 3 CRONULLA 1
Finals H2H @ AAMI Park – MELBOURNE 2 CRONULLA 0
Last Finals Match – 2024 Melbourne 37 Cronulla 10
Can the Sharks winning run continue? They are the most in-form team in the NRL since Origin finished with a 90% win rate.
They’ll need to stay in form as the Storm’s finals record is very job. Melbourne have won 11 of the their last 13 finals games at AAMI Park. It’s W14 L6 overall. Melbourne have won all seven finals games on a Friday night at AAMI Park. Melbourne are W12 L3 overall at any ground in finals on a Friday.
Cronulla’s finals record isn’t great either. Cronulla have lost all three finals games away on a Friday since 1998. Cronulla are W2 L15 for away finals games on any day. Cronulla have never won an away finals game outside of NSW/ACT.
H2H goes Melbourne’s way as does games at AAMI Park. Melbourne are W15 L2 for games at AAMI Park on a Friday since 2020. Melbourne’s win rate v Sydney teams this season is 75% and the best in the comp. But who knew Cronulla’s Friday form was so good? Cronulla have won six games in a row on a Friday. Cronulla have won all their Friday games this season.
Team news and the Storm are taking a big risk by naming Jahrome Hughes at halfback for this game, so whether he will last the game in unknown. If he doesn’t Tyran Wishart is the very capable player to cover from the number 14 role. Two other big ins for the Storm are Ryan Papenhuyzen and Shawn Blore. Nothing on a grand scale for Cronulla who only has Tom Hazelton out due to concussion protocols and he is replaced by Oregon Kaufusi.
Sunday Suncorp Stadium 4pm – BRISBANE v PENRITH
Finals H2H (since 1998) – BRISBANE 1 PENRITH 2
Finals H2H @ Suncorp Stadium – BRISBANE 1 PENRITH 0
Last Finals Match – 2023 GF Penrith 26 Brisbane 24
Penrith’s recent finals record is hard to beat, much like the team itself in September. Their 2021 Premiership season saw their last finals loss to South Sydney in Townsville. Since then it has been 14 finals wins in a row. Plus Penrith have now four finals games in a row as the nominated away side.
The Broncos finals record is hot and cold. Cold against Sydney teams – Brisbane have lost their last three finals games v Sydney teams. But good at Suncorp Stadium as Brisbane have won nine of their last ten finals games at Suncorp Stadium going back to 2009. Only the Dragons spoiling that run in 2018. That game doubles as the only finals game for the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium on a Sunday.
But Penrith have the recent dominance in the H2H as Penrith have won nine of their last ten games v Brisbane. Plus Penrith have won six in a row at Suncorp Stadium v Brisbane with a last loss pre-dating Covid.
Team news is all important for the Broncos for key inclusions. The biggest inclusion name wise is Adam Reynolds who is named at halfback, and his fellow hamstring recoveree Ezra Mam also returns but via the number 14 role off the bench. Ben Hunt shifts to five eighth to cover Billy Walters in one of the NRL’s most experienced half pairing in competition history. Another huge inclusion, size wise, is the man mountain himself Xavier Willison. Broncos play better with him and that’s a fact. The last bit of team news is the looming Selwyn Cobbo named among the reserves. He may well come in at the expense of one of two wingers – Josiah Karapani and Deine Mariner – which would be harsh on them.
Penrith have stuck to a winning formula as expected with Liam Martin and Casey McLean with some minor injury concerns but will likely play. We wouldn’t want to be the person to tell Martin he couldn’t play.
2025 NRL Finals Stats
Answering the big questions ahead of the NRL Finals starting. Which teams have done best against their finals opponents. And so much more.
TEAM STATS WITH FINALS v REGULAR SEASON COMPARISON
FINALS TEAMS v FINALS TEAMS RECORD IN 2025 and FINALS TEAMS v EACH OTHER
VARIOUS 2025 N RL SEASON STATS
