More disappointed than a Canberra Raiders fan, less to blame for the world’s problems than Lachlan Galvin, and ready for sudden death rugby league, it’s our 2025 NRL Finals Week 3 Tips Predictions & Stats Preview.
Our NRL Finals edition of our weekly tips blab is a quick preview glance for each match, a bunch of barely interesting stats, a pinch of opinion, and some bonus finals and 2025 season stats. It’s all you can eat NRL stats.
2025 NRL Finals Week 3 Tips
Here are our tips for the week ahead. How did we get to here? By going through all the visuals and stats below.
MELBOURNE by 8
PENRITH by 20
2025 NRL Finals Week 3 Tips Match Thoughts
Looking for a cheat sheet for the weekend’s upcoming games?
What about some finals stats? Or some barely interesting facts?
Here’s as much information that we could cram into one size fits all visual.
Finals record goes back to 1998.
FRI 7:50pm – MELBOURNE v CRONULLA @ AAMI Park
Finals H2H (since 1998) – MELBOURNE 3 CRONULLA 1
Finals H2H @ AAMI Park – MELBOURNE 2 CRONULLA 0
Last Finals Match – 2024 Melbourne 37 Cronulla 10
Melbourne are W5 L5 in finals since 2021.
Melbourne have won 11 of the their last 13 finals games at AAMI Park. It’s W14 L6 overall.
Melbourne have won all seven finals games on a Friday night at AAMI Park.
Melbourne are W12 L3 overall at any ground in finals on a Friday.
Cronulla have lost all three finals games away on a Friday since 1998.
Cronulla are W2 L15 for away finals games on any day.
Cronulla have never won an away finals game outside of NSW/ACT.
Melbourne are W15 L2 for games at AAMI Park on a Friday since 2020.
Melbourne’s win rate v Sydney teams this season is 75% and the best in the comp.
Cronulla have won six games in a row on a Friday.
Cronulla have won all their Friday games this season. The only other side to do that was Canberra, so either way Melbourne would have had issues.
Cronulla have won their last three away games on a Friday v non NSW teams.
Regardless of venue, these teams have alternated winners for the last six games. Melbourne won the most recent clash.
Melbourne’s record v Cronulla at AAMI Park is W14 L3.
Melbourne have won the only two clashes v Cronulla at AAMI Park on a Friday.
At any ground, Melbourne still lead the H2H by 6-2 on a Friday.
SUN 4:05PM – BRISBANE v PENRITH @ Suncorp Stadium
Finals H2H (since 1998) – BRISBANE 1 PENRITH 2
Finals H2H @ Suncorp Stadium – BRISBANE 1 PENRITH 0
Last Finals Match – 2023 GF Penrith 26 Brisbane 24
Brisbane have won the only finals game between these sides at Suncorp Stadium in 2017.
Penrith’s other non-GF Finals win v Brisbane was in 2003, when they won the comp.
Brisbane have won nine of their last ten finals games at Suncorp Stadium going back to 2009. Only the Dragons spoiling that run in 2018. That game doubles as the only finals game for the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium on a Sunday.
Penrith are 2/3 for finals games at Suncorp Stadium, with both of those wins in the Covid affected 2021 Premiership win. They have lost their only finals game v Broncos at Suncorp Stadium.
That 2021 Premiership season saw their last finals loss to South Sydney in Townsville. Since then it has been 14 finals wins in a row.
Penrith have now four finals games in a row as the nominated away side.
Brisbane have lost their last three finals games v Sydney teams.
Overall Brisbane are W11 L3 v Sydney teams in finals as the home side.
Penrith have won nine of their last ten games v Brisbane.
Penrith have won six in a row at Suncorp Stadium v Brisbane with a last loss pre-dating Covid.
Brisbane lead the Sunday Suncorp Stadium H2H by 4-1, but did lose earlier in the season to Penrith.
Brisbane are W4 L6 on a Sunday at Suncorp Stadium since 2021.
Brisbane are W7 L9 v Sydney teams at Suncorp Stadium since 2024.
Penrith are W2 D1 L2 v Qld sides in 2025.
2025 NRL Finals Week 3 Stats
Answering the big questions ahead of the weekend’s ahead. Which teams have done best against their finals opponents. Who has the best finals record? What kind of obscure stats can I get from the 2025 season?
All of that and maybe more is below.
TEAM STATS WITH FINALS v REGULAR SEASON COMPARISON
FINALS TEAMS v FINALS TEAMS RECORD IN 2025 and FINALS TEAMS v EACH OTHER
VARIOUS 2025 N RL SEASON STATS
