Been too distracted by headbutts, 90 minute epics and/or Reece Walsh? Do you need some last-minute NRL tipping advice? Or simply want something else to blame when the tips go wrong? Either way, saddle up for The Gurgler’s NRL Finals Week 2 Ratings and Late Mail.
In a new additional to our stable of NRL stats and tipping products, we have used all the stats we have, smashed them against each other like atoms, and come up with a H2H rating.
It includes this year’s form with a bias because it is this year, but we don’t forget historic stats of the H2H against this week’s opponents, and the ground and day the teams are playing on, plus their record v top and lower half teams and finals record split different ways.
Then slice up the scores out of 100% between the two sides. The bigger the percentage, the more likely to win.
2025 NRL Finals Week 2 Ratings
Here are the H2H ratings and winners for the second week of the finals.
2025 NRL Finals Week 2 Late Mail
SAT 7:50pm – CANBERRA v CRONULLA @ Canberra Stadium
FINALS H2H – Canberra 3 Cronulla 1
@ Canberra – Canberra 2 Cronulla 1
Saturday 2025 Win % – Canberra 63% Cronulla 67%
Question for the Minor Premiers heading into this game is how much damage physically and mentally the epic game v Brisbane last Sunday was. A six day turnaround doesn’t help, but at least they don’t have to travel from another city from their game last weekend like all three other teams.
And Ricky Stuart is relying on the same team from last weekend, so he’s backing the team that won more regular season games in 2025. Cronulla too are happy with their team from last weekend with only a looming Tom Hazelton named on an extended bench the only possible change.
As for stats, they are mixed for both sides, as our almost 50-50 H2H ratings shows.
Canberra have now lost their last three finals games, which also broke a three game finals winning streak at home. Although, Canberra have won their last three finals on a Saturday which includes two wins v Melbourne and one v Cronulla.
But Cronulla in finals away are terrible – Cronulla have won one of 16 away finals games since 1998 and Cronulla have also lost eight of nine finals games away on a Saturday.
Canberra have some good stats overall for 2025, as you’d expect for a Minor Premiership winning side – Canberra are W4 L1 at home on a Saturday this season v all sides. Furthermore, Canberra have won six of their last seven at home to Cronulla and the last two on a Saturday.
But Cronulla are the form side of the competition in the Post Origin period of the competition. Their record of W8 L1 and one bye is the best.
So close. Flip a coin.
SUN 4:05PM – BULLDOGS v PENRITH @ Olympic Stadium
FINALS H2H – Bulldogs 2 Penrith 1
@ Olympic Stadium – Bulldogs 1 Penrith 0 (2014)
Sunday 2025 Win % – Bulldogs 86% Penrith 100%
If you compare recent finals records there’s no comparison. Bulldogs have lost their last five finals games with a last win in 2015. Penrith have won 13 finals games in a row. Whilst it helps to win a lot of Grand Finals, Penrith are still W9 L1 on a Sunday in Finals. Penrith have also won their last three away Finals games. But a token stat for Bulldogs fans – But the Bulldogs have won the only Finals game v Penrith at the Olympic Stadium.
The H2H for Penrith v Bulldogs is also heavily weighted to Penrith. Penrith have won eight of their last nine v Bulldogs, with the infamous 16 player resting game the only loss. Penrith have also won the last five games on a Sunday v Bulldogs. Penrith lead the H2H v Bulldogs at the Olympic Stadium since 1998 by nine wins to eight. And Penrith’s 72% win rate at the Olympic Stadium since 2020 is higher than the Bulldogs’ 48%.
Sundays also favour Penrith. Penrith have won nine Sunday games in a row and have won all Sunday games this season. Penrith have won six in a row away to Sydney sides on a Sunday. And their last five on a Sunday away to anyone. Bulldogs are W6 L1 on a Sunday.
Team news is all important for the Bulldogs who had injury setbacks in last weekend’s loss to Melbourne. Not sure if the Bulldogs are playing mind games on Penrith but they have named Stephen Crichton in the extended reserves after it was believed his injury from last weekend was season ending. Bronson Xerri returns from concussion at centre. And again the Bulldogs change their spine with Matt Burton moving to centre to replace Crichton, Toby Sexton officially getting redemption by being named at halfback, Lachlan Galvin is named five eighth, and Bailey Hayward will interchange with Reed Mahoney in the hooking role. Will this be the magic combination now? No more chances to get it wrong in 2025.
No changes for the Panthers after their great win in Auckland last weekend, but Mitch Kenny is named among the extended reserves and potentially could return.
2025 NRL Finals Week 2 Stats
Answering the big questions ahead of the NRL Finals starting. Which teams have done best against their finals opponents. And so much more.
FINALS TEAMS v FINALS TEAMS RECORD IN 2025
FINALS TEAMS v EACH OTHER IN FINALS
