Finals are here, with the top eight teams spending the next four weeks of intense finals football with a chance to make the big dance as some call it. Talking of Leo Sayer, it’s fair to say that our 2025 NRL Finals Week 1 Tips Predictions & Stats Preview will make you feel like dancing.
Each week this season we offer up a quick preview glance for each match, throw in a bunch of barely interesting stats, and mix in a pinch of opinion, some spicy tips and you have a rugby league soup with probably more flavour than one could ever need or want. It’s all you can eat NRL stats.
2025 NRL Finals Week 1 Tips
Here are our tips for the week ahead. How did we get to here? By going through all the visuals and stats below.
MELBOURNE by 16
PENRITH by 10
ROOSTERS by 12
BRISBANE by 6
2025 NRL Finals Week 1 Tips Match Thoughts
Looking for a cheat sheet for the weekend’s upcoming games?
What about some finals stats?
Or some barely interesting facts?
Here’s as much information that we could cram into one size fits all visual.
Finals record goes back to 1998.
FRIDAY 7:50PM – MELBOURNE v BULLDOGS – AAMI PARK
FINALS RECORD: BULLDOGS 3 MELBOURNE 2
LAST FINALS MATCH: 2014 – MELBOURNE 4 BULLDOGS 28 (AAMI PARK)
Melbourne have won 14 of their last 16 homes games on a Friday. The two losses were against the Roosters.
Melbourne have won all six home finals at AAMI Park on a Friday.
Melbourne’s finals record at AAMI Park on any day is W13 L6, with only one of those losses coming against a Sydney team – Bulldogs.
Melbourne have won nine of their last 10 v Bulldogs.
Melbourne are W6 L1 v Bulldogs on a Friday and won both Friday games at AAMI Park.
Bulldogs have lost their last three Friday games.
Since 2021 Bulldogs are W2 L11 on a Friday v non-Sydney sides.
SATURDAY 4:05PM – WARRIORS v PENRITH – MT SMART STADIUM
FINALS RECORD: PENRITH 3 WARRIORS 0
LAST FINALS MATCH: 2023 – PENRITH 32 WARRIORS 6 (PENRITH STADIUM)
Warriors have won just one of their last six finals games.
But the Warriors have won their last two finals games at Mt Smart Stadium with an overall record there of W3 L1.
Penrith have won 12 finals games in a row with a last loss in 2021.
Penrith’s finals record away at non-Sydney venues is W3 L4. But they have won their last three.
Penrith have won nine of the last ten games v Warriors.
Penrith have won their last two visits to Mt Smart Stadium.
The H2H at Mt Smart Stadium on a Saturday is 2-2.
Warriors have won only two of their last seven home games this season.
Penrith (W4 D1) are unbeaten this season away from home on a Saturday. Including a win in Auckland. Scoring no less than 28 points in that run.
SATURDAY 7:50PM – SHARKS v ROOSTERS – SHARK PARK
FINALS RECORD: ROOSTERS 3 CRONULLA 0
LAST FINALS MATCH: 2023 – SHARKS 12 ROOSTERS 13 (SHARK PARK)
Cronulla have won just one of their last eight finals games, including losing their last two finals games at Shark Park in 2022 and 2023.
Cronulla have lost eight Saturday finals games in a row. Last time they won a Saturday finals game was in 2016.
The Roosters have only won three of their last ten finals games going back to 2020.
Roosters have won only one of their last nine away finals games. But have won the last two on a Saturday including a last start finals win over the Sharks.
The H2H since 2020 between these sides is Sharks 3 Roosters 5. At Shark Park over that time it is two wins each.
Sharks have a woeful record at Shark Park v Roosters on a Saturday – W2 L12 since 1998.
Cronulla are the form team of the competition since Origin finished with a 88% win rate.
Cronulla have won six in a row at home coming into this game. Only one of those sides ended up in the top eight – Roosters.
Roosters are W5 L2 away from home this season on a Saturday.
SUNDAY 4:05 – CANBERRA v BRISBANE – CANBERRA STADIUM
FINALS RECORD: NO MATCHES SINCE 1998
Brisbane have lost their last nine finals games away from Suncorp Stadium, including scoring zero points in two of their last three games.
It’s one from eight away from Suncorp Stadium on a Sunday.
Broncos are W2 L10 away from home in finals v Sydney teams going back to 1998.
Canberra are W5 L3 in finals as the home side, and have won their last three at Canberra Stadium.
Canberra are W2 L6 in finals on a Sunday, but have won the only game in Canberra on a Sunday.
Canberra have won four of their last five in Canberra v Brisbane. And four in a row on a Sunday.
Canberra have lost just one of 12 home games in the regular season in 2025.
Canberra have won five in a row in Canberra on a Sunday.
Canberra have won five in a row in Canberra v Qld sides.
Brisbane have won four of their last five away from home.
2025 NRL Finals Week 1 Stats
Answering the big questions ahead of the NRL Finals starting. Which teams have done best against their finals opponents. And so much more.
- Cronulla and Roosters are the only teams without a 100% win record v one of the finals teams.
- Roosters are just ahead for points scored per game against fellow finals teams.
- Warriors average over eight points less per game.
- Roosters have the second worst defence v fellow finals teams, with Cronulla worst.
- Penrith lead the win % for finals games from 1998, 2015 and 2020. Winning a million finals games in a row helps.
FINALS TEAMS v FINALS TEAMS RECORD IN 2025
2025 NRL Season Stats
The best of the stats from the season that has been so you can try and guess the rest of the season that will be.
