NRL | 2025 NRL Round 27 Ratings and Late Mail

Been too distracted by how many players aren’t playing this weekend? Do you need some last-minute NRL tipping advice? Or simply want something else to blame when the tips go wrong? Either way, saddle up for The Gurgler’s NRL Round 27 Ratings and Late Mail.

In a new additional to our stable of NRL stats and tipping products, we have used all the stats we have, smashed them against each other like atoms, and come up with a H2H rating.

It includes this year’s form with a bias because it is this year, but we don’t forget historic stats of the H2H against this week’s opponents, and the ground and day the teams are playing on, plus their record v top and lower half teams.

Then slice up the scores out of 100% between the two sides. The bigger the percentage, the more likely to win.

2025 NRL Round 27 Ratings

Here are the H2H ratings and winners for the second last weekend of the regular season.

2025 NRL Round 27 Late Mail

THU – BRISBANE v MELBOURNE

In a big week where the Broncos need to win to guarantee themselves a top four place and a double chance against a side who they have a poor record against, you’d think the players would pull their heads in. Instead you see footage of Reece Walsh drinking out of toilet and Gehamat Shibasaki drinking too much in general and being dropped. Shibasaki will be missed as much as moving Deine Mariner into the centres and bringing Jess Arthars onto the win is a solid replacement.

After resting players didn’t quite work out last weekend for Melbourne in their 40 point second half pantsing by the Roosters, they are only resting Stefano Utoikamanu and Shawn Blore is out injured. A big in is Jahrome Hughes, plus the returns of Xavier Coates, Eli Katoa, Nick Meaney and Josh King should see them back to full power.

Talking of full power, the stats are certainly on the Storm’s side. Broncos have won just one of their last 18 games v Melbourne going back to 2017. Broncos have won only one of their last 15 games at Suncorp Stadium v Melbourne going back to 2011. Brisbane have won the most recent clash with Melbourne on a Friday at Suncorp Stadium in 2023. Overall it’s W2 L10. It’s W4 L21 on a Friday v Melbourne anywhere. Overall Melbourne are W11 L3 at Suncorp Stadium on a Friday.

FRI – MANLY v WARRIORS

Manly need to win big with a bunch of other things to happen to make the finals, but facing the Warriors isn’t a bad thing. Manly have won three in a row at Brookvale v Warriors. Manly have only lost two of their last 13 at Brookvale v Warriors going back to 2010. Friday form is a bit scratchy for both, Manly have won only one of five Friday games this season but won the only home game. Warriors have lost three in a row away on a Friday. Worth noting though – Warriors are W4 L1 away to Sydney teams this season.

Manly are looking long term this weekend by bringing in Joey Walsh as the number 14 for a run in the halves at some stage. The Sea Eagles lose some speed with Tolu Koula out injured. The Warriors have lost Wayde Egan through a hip injury. If the Broncos lose like usual against Melbourne, a win here for the Warriors would put them in fourth and place pressure on the other team chasing top four Cronulla ahead of their hard game v Bulldogs.

FRI – ROOSTERS v SOUTH SYDNEY

What better time for a clash between Roosters and Rabbitohs than the last week of the regular season, where the Rabbitohs can spoil the Roosters finals chances. So despite being out of finals contention, you’d be certain they would enjoy keeping the Roosters out of the finals as well. Plus there’s Alex Johnston, who is three tries short of the try scoring record. So more to play for than you’d think normally. That, and it is a proper rivalry.

Stats favour the Roosters, Roosters have won four of their last five games v South Sydney at Allianz Stadium. Roosters have never been beaten by the Rabbitohs on a Friday at Allianz Stadium (9 games). Roosters have won 11 of their last 12 at Allianz Stadium v any team on a Friday. Roosters have won 15 of their last 16 at Allianz Stadium v any team on a Friday v Sydney. And Souths have lost six in a row away on a Friday. But Souths have won their last three games, and are playing ok. Not quite as good as the Roosters second half v Melbourne, but good enough ahead of this game.

Souths have some big name players back too, with Cameron Murray making his return from long-term injury and Jack Wighton returning from suspension. A shame there’s no Latrell Mitchell, as he’d love this kind of game. For the Roosters Sam Walker returns from concussion replacing Sandon Smith.

SAT – ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA v PENRITH (Win Stadium)

Bit of a low key match this one, with the Dragons unable to make the finals and Penrith either going to finish seventh or eighth. Both will work for them. The recent H2H works for Penrith too, having won seven of the last eight games v Dragons.

Penrith’s band of rested players return for this clash, which should see them being too good. Only Liam Martin and Brian To’o are sitting out for a second week. The Dragons are unchanged so continuity is on their side.

SAT – GOLD COAST v WESTS TIGERS

Gold Coast need to win to avoid last, and this week’s opponent does help. Wests Tigers are the only team where the Gold Coast Titans have a >50% win percentage against (61%). Plus Gold Coast have won three straight home games v Wests Tigers. The general form at home and on Saturdays for the Gold Coast gets pretty ordinary after that though, Gold Coast are W1 L4 at home on a Saturday this season and Gold Coast are W2 L7 anywhere on a Saturday this season. No better for the Wests Tigers though, Wests Tigers have won one of their last 13 away games on a Saturday but at least that win was in Queensland v Dolphins. Wests Tigers have won just one of their eight away games v Qld sides since 2023.

Keano Kini returns for the Titans and is selected at fullback which means AJ Brimson moves to the centres. It’s all new in the centres with rugby convert Carter Gordon named. In other exciting new player news son of PNG legend Marcus Bai – Cooper Bai – is selected in the number 14 role. For the Tigers big player news Jeral Skelton is out while Alex Seyfarth returns from suspension.

SAT – BULLDOGS v CRONULLA (Olympic Stadium)

A game Cronulla may, or may not need to win to finish in the top four. If they win and Broncos and Warriors lose they are fourth. If they match results, Cronulla need to do it better by 66 points. So yeah, they need to win. Bulldogs are a tough opponent recently, Bulldogs have won two in a row v Cronulla. But prior to that Cronulla had won six in a row. Saturdays favour the Bulldogs – Bulldogs have won all six Saturday games this season. As does the top eight battles form. Bulldogs win % v current top eight is 50% this season, Cronulla’s is 22%. Bulldogs win rate v current top eight sides at home is 75%, Cronulla’s away win % v current top eight sides in 2025 is 0%.

Despite being safe in third place, the Bulldogs have avoided huge resting. Jacob Kiraz is out injured. Viliame Kikau returns in a boost. Jesse Ramien is a good inclusion for the Sharks. 

SUN – DOLPHINS v CANBERRA (Dolphin Oval)

Canberra won the minor premiership last weekend and so have done the Dolphins a favour by resting ten players for this weekend’s clash in Redcliffe.  Kaeo Weekes, Jed Stuart, Ethan Strange, Jamal Fogarty, Joe Tapine, Tom Starling, Simi Sasagi, Josh Papalii and Zac Hosking are all out, so the Raiders will have a completely changed spine for this weekend. Among new combinations everywhere else. Dolphins have Kulikefu Finefuiaki returning and word on the street is Herbie Farnworth will play if the Dolphins’ finals chances are still alive.

Stats favour a full strength Canberra. Dolphins won the first game v Canberra but have lost three in a row since. Canberra lost their first two away games this season but have won eight of their last nine since. Canberra are W4 L1 away on a Sunday this season. Although Dolphins have won their last two home games on a Sunday. The game being at Redcliffe, the proper home of the Dolphins, and their record there is patchy. It’s W1 L1 at Redcliffe on a Sunday for the Dolphins. It’s W4 L3 at Redcliffe on any day for the Dolphins. The teams share a win at the ground in previous clashes.

SUN – PARRAMATTA v NEWCASTLE

Parramatta have found some late season form, moving away from last. Going in the other direction is Newcastle with a run of eight straight losses, and one more (and a Titans win earlier in the weekend) could see them finish dead last for 2025. Stats don’t help them either. Parramatta have won seven of their last eight v Newcastle. Parramatta have won the only two games at CommBank Stadium v Newcastle. Worse still, Newcastle have lost all eight games this season on a Sunday.

Team news sees Dylan Brown moving back to five eighth, as a preview for the Knights when he moves there. Newcastle are unchanged, but maybe that’s because the coach has been axed for 2026, although we’re sure he’d rather win and avoid last.

2025 NRL Round 26 Review + Round 27 Preview

2025 NRL Season Stats So Far

And if you don’t believe our ratings, then help yourself to a bunch of stats from the 2025 NRL season.

Here’s the best of the NRL Team Stats from last weekend.