NRL | 2025 NRL Round 25 Ratings and Late Mail

Been too distracted by more wet weather coming? Do you need some last-minute NRL tipping advice? Or simply want something else to blame when the tips go wrong? Either way, saddle up for The Gurgler’s NRL Round 25 Ratings and Late Mail.

In a new additional to our stable of NRL stats and tipping products, we have used all the stats we have, smashed them against each other like atoms, and come up with a H2H rating.

It includes this year’s form with a bias because it is this year, but we don’t forget historic stats of the H2H against this week’s opponents, and the ground and day the teams are playing on, plus their record v top and lower half teams.

Then slice up the scores out of 100% between the two sides. The bigger the percentage, the more likely to win.

2025 NRL Round 25 Ratings

Here are the H2H ratings and winners for the first of the Origin affected rounds.

A solid 6/8 last weekend, the Roosters turnaround in form getting the better of our ratings, and same for the Tigers.

2025 NRL Round 25 Late Mail

THU – SOUTH SYDNEY v ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA – Olympic Stadium

The Rabbitohs have found form, winning two in a row, although playing the two sides in the bottom three helps. Still Souths’ record v the Dragons is good, at home anyway. South Sydney have won nine straight home games v St George Illawarra. Not all of those nine games were at the Olympic Stadium, but it is still seven wins straight at the ground for Souths v Dragons. South Sydney have won the only Thursday game between these sides at the Olympic Stadium. It’s 3-1 overall to the Bunnies on a Thursday. Souths are 1/1 on a Thursday this season, beating Penrith no less. Dragons are W1 L1. Away is no good for the Dragons who have lost six away games in a row.

Keaon Koloamatangi is a huge plus for the Rabbitohs. Cody Walker appears to be getting eased back into the side, being named on the bench again this weekend. Hamish Stewart, Jack de Belin and Hame Sele are all out for the Dragons with last weekend’s interchange and reserve players stepping up. 

FRI – PENRITH v CANBERRA – Mudgee

Into the bush for the NRL on Friday, and we say there isn’t enough of it. Especially in Queensland. Canberra probably wish the game was elsewhere as they have lost both of their games in Mudgee, and Penrith are yet to play there. Penrith have the H2H advantage – Canberra beat Penrith in their last meeting in 2024, it broke a run of five straight losses. Penrith lead the H2H 2-1 for games not at regular grounds and Canberra last beat Penrith on a Friday in 2007, it’s been three losses in a row since. But Fridays seem to work for the Raiders this season as Canberra have won four games in a row on a Friday, same for playing Sydney teams too, as Canberra have won five in a row on a Friday away to Sydney teams. Penrith are W2 L2 on a Friday this season but have won their last two. Overall their loss last weekend broke a run of nine straight wins.

Biggest team news, of possibly the entire weekend is Isaah Yeo returning for the Panthers. Big plus for the Panthers. No changes for Canberra from their last game with the teams having the bye last weekend.

FRI – MELBOURNE v BULLDOGS

The second of the big top five clashes and one the Bulldogs would like to win to stop their mini slump. Although we’re sure Craig Bellamy won’t be happy. To lose or in general. The Storm don’t like to lose at home or on a Friday as Melbourne have won seven in a row at AAMI Park on a Friday, with a last loss in 2022. They’re pretty good against the Bulldogs too because Melbourne have won eight of their last nine v Bulldogs and since 1998 the Storm lead the Friday H2H by 5-1. Meanwhile Bulldogs have lost their last two Friday games and are W2 L2 this season on a Friday plus since 2021 the Bulldogs have won two of their 15 away games on a Friday. Bulldogs are W3 L4 v top half sides this season (top eight at time of game) and W1 L3 away from home. Melbourne’s W5 L3 record v top half sides this season is the best in the comp, but is W3 L2 at home.

Cameron Munster is named fullback, with Tyran Wishart and Jonah Pezet named in the halves. But with Ryan Papenhuyzen in the extended squad, there’s some movement surely going to happen. Bulldogs players Sitili Tupouniua and Marcelo Montoya are the big ins for them this weekend.

SAT – MANLY v DOLPHINS

Finals will be over for at least one of these sides after Saturday, and both aren’t in sparkling form. Or even good form for one side. Manly have now lost four in a row coming into this game, while the Dolphins have lost two games in a row against two teams they were directly competing against for finals. Saturdays and Sydney games don’t seem to be favouring the Dolphins for this game – Manly are W5 L2 on a Saturday this season while Dolphins are W3 L5 on a Saturday this season. Dolphins are W3 L8 for games away to Sydney sides in Sydney. Dolphins have lost all three games away to Sydney sides in Sydney on a Saturday. Manly have won both of their home games v Qld opposition this season.

Reuben Garrick is out for the season for Manly, and his spot is taken by Tommy Talau. Naughty Dolphins boys Felise Kaufusi and Francis Molo return to give the Dolphins some drive up the middle, while the return of Max Feagai sees the Hammer move to fullback and Trai Fuller at least keeps a spot even if it is on the bench. Sadly that’s at the expense of Ray Stone, a brave decision indeed.

SAT – GOLD COAST v WARRIORS

Not often we get to highlight the Titans being the form team H2H wise heading into a game, but they have a solid dominance over the Wahs recently. Gold Coast have won six of the last seven games v Warriors. Gold Coast have also won four in a row v Warriors on a Saturday. Two of those games were at CBUS Stadium. Gold Coast have won five of their last seven home games v Warriors on any day. Warriors aside, the Titans have a poor record at home this season, they are W2 L8 at home this season, and the Gold Coast have lost all home games this season v non-NSW sides. Warriors away form v Sydney teams is good, but the Warriors have lost their last two away games on a Saturday this season and Warriors are W1 L1 for away games v Qld sides this season.

Titans have good news for the backs with Brian Kelly and Jojo Fifita returning but lose Jaimin Jolliffe. Wahs team news is good with Kurt Capewell, Te Maire Martin  and Rocco Berry returning, although the shake up means Leka Halasima is on the bench which seems counter-productive. Taine Tuaupiki becomes the reserve as Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad moves from centre back to fullback.

SAT – PARRAMATTA v ROOSTERS

Roosters have started to look finals good in the past few weeks, and good luck to any team that has to play them at the moment, let alone a team in the bottom few sides. Roosters have a decent record v Parramatta too, they have won four straight v the Eels and the Roosters have won four of the last five Saturday clashes v Parramatta. Saturday is not good for the Eels either, Parramatta have lost their last four Saturday games and Roosters have won their last five Saturday games. At least the H2H is two wins each at CommBank Stadium.

Parramatta have done a few cosmetic changes with Isaiah Iongi and Joash Papali’i swapping positions, and the versatile Jordan Samrani is always a good inclusion. Roosters team news sees a swap of Tupous. with Junior Tupou in and Daniel Tupou out. Siua Wong returns from his Dolphin inflicted concussion, which sees Naufahu Whyte move to prop, and Spencer Leniu drop to the bench for impact. Poor Parramatta.

SUN – NEWCASTLE v BRISBANE

Newcastle’s record in Queensland is pretty poor, so their loss last weekend to the Cowboys wasn’t much of a surprise. Problem for Newcastle is their home record this year isn’t much better, if at all better. Newcastle have lost their last five home games and won just one of their last ten home games. Newcastle have lost all three of their Sunday home games this season. But…..the Knights home record v Queensland sides is promising…..Newcastle have won three of their last four home games v Qld sides, but did lose their last start to the Gold Coast at home. On a Sunday it’s four wins at home to Qld sides.

As advised in our Round 24 NRL Stats Weekly – Newcastle have failed to score in the first half 12 times this season. For the record, the Broncos have failed to score in the first half just once and average 14 points per first half in 2025. Brisbane are W1 L1 away on a Sunday this season, with the only win not at Suncorp Stadium and the only loss at Suncorp Stadium.

The most notable team movement for Newcastle is Phoenix Crossland in at hooker, with Jayden Brailey moving to the bench. Jaiyden Hunt in for the injured Jack Gosiewski makes sense for the Broncos team changes. Bringing a winger onto the bench doesn’t quite make sense when you also have a backup hooker. Maybe they know something we don’t. 

SUN – WESTS TIGERS v NORTH QUEENSLAND – Leichhardt

Getting exciting for Tigers fans, a spoon avoided for 2025, and on the verge of winning three in a row for the first time since April 2018. The Tigers are in form and would be in the top eight if the ladder was calculated from Round 18 onwards. Long bow we know. Wests Tigers have won their last three at Leichhardt including both games this season. Conveniently both games were on a Sunday. Wests Tigers have also won three in a row on a Sunday v anyone.

Playing the Cowboys helps, they are so inconsistent and won big last weekend. Also North Queensland have lost six of their last seven away games and the Cowboys have lost all three games away from home v Sydney sides on a Sunday this season.

No changes for either team, no surprise given their good victories last weekend.

2025 NRL Round 24 Review + Round 25 Preview

2025 NRL Season Stats So Far

And if you don’t believe our ratings, then help yourself to a bunch of stats from the 2025 NRL season.

Here’s the best of the NRL Team Stats from last weekend.