NRL | 2025 NRL Round 23 Ratings and Late Mail

Been too distracted by an NRL trainer cutting you off at the supermarket? Do you need some last-minute NRL tipping advice? Or simply want something else to blame when the tips go wrong? Either way, saddle up for The Gurgler’s NRL Round 23 Ratings and Late Mail.

In a new additional to our stable of NRL stats and tipping products, we have used all the stats we have, smashed them against each other like atoms, and come up with a H2H rating.

It includes this year’s form with a bias because it is this year, but we don’t forget historic stats of the H2H against this week’s opponents, and the ground and day the teams are playing on.

We’ve also applied an adjustment for each team’s increase or decrease in win % over the Origin period.

Then slice up the scores out of 100% between the two sides. The bigger the percentage, the more likely to win.

2025 NRL Round 23 Ratings

Here are the H2H ratings and winners for the first of the Origin affected rounds.

Our ratings picked just 5/8 last weekend, but improvement coming this week.

2025 NRL Round 23 Late Mail

THU – MELBOURNE v BRISBANE

Melbourne have some record on a Thursday. We mean, really good. Melbourne have won all 19 home games on a Thursday. What more do you need? How about Four of those Thursday home games have been against the Broncos. Or Home or away, Melbourne are undefeated against Brisbane on a Thursday (eight games). Or Melbourne have won eight games straight at AAMI Park v Brisbane. Or Melbourne have won 16 in a row at AAMI Park v Qld sides with a last loss in 2016.

It’s not all about Melbourne, Brisbane have won both of their Thursday clashes this season and scored over 40 points both times. But Brisbane have a dreadful record away to non-Sydney teams on a Thursday – W4 L12.

The Broncos welcome back Payne Haas, but lose our favourite Xavier “Whatcha Talkin’ About” Willison. Origin player Trent Loiero is included for the Storm while future Origin star Jack Howarth is out.

FRI – NEWCASTLE v PENRITH

With Penrith now in ominous form, any opponent will struggle against the four-peating Premiers. Newcastle’s upset over Penrith earlier in the season broke a run of ten straight losses to the Panthers. So there’s hope for the Knights. 

Games at home and on Fridays won’t help the Knights’ cause, as Newcastle have lost seven in a row at home to Penrith, with a last win in 2015. Newcastle have lost their last five Friday games and the last four Friday home games. Plus Newcastle have the worst home record this season. They share two home wins with the Titans, but they have lost one fewer game. Penrith are unbeaten in six away games now W5 D1.

Bradman Best is big in for the Knights, and Isiah Yeo a big loss for Penrith. But Best isn’t that good to stop the Penrith juggernaut.

FRI – CANBERRA v MANLY

Hard to figure, as Manly usually hate road trips but Manly have won their last two visits to Canberra and five of the last six. Although, the game being on a Friday hurts – Manly have won only one of their last 12 away games on a Friday. Canberra have won both of their Friday games this season, but both were away. 

No real team news to share, but we will see if Canberra’s loss last weekend was the one they needed before finals or the start of a dip.

SAT – ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA v CRONULLA (Kogarah)

This local rivalry looks plenty one-sided – Cronulla have won ten in a row v St George Illawarra and Cronulla have won five in a row v St George Illawarra at Kogarah. Dragons are at least W5 L3 at home to Cronulla on a Saturday, but only one of those games was at Kogarah. But St George Illawarra have won two of their last 15 v  Sydney teams on any day. A neat rearrangement of top v bottom stats too, as Cronulla are W9 L2 v bottom half sides (at time of fixture). Dragons are W2 L9 v top half sides.

No real team news for this game. Lachlan Ilias is named among the reserves but is unlikely to be blamed for the Dragons losing this weekend.

SAT – DOLPHINS v ROOSTERS (Suncorp Stadium)

A quality clash between the two sides most likely to fighting for the last finals spot. If the Dolphins win it’s advantage them. Luckily their Suncorp Stadium record on a Saturday and against Sydney teams is good. Dolphins are W5 L2 on a Saturday at Suncorp Stadium. Dolphins are W8 L2 v Sydney teams at Suncorp Stadium. But the Roosters won there earlier in the season and have a good record there. Roosters have won their last three games v Qld sides and the Roosters have won seven of the last nine v Qld sides at Suncorp Stadium.

The Dolphins could have done without losing Herbie Farnworth, but have just enough cover for now, but will miss arguably the most in-form centre in the NRL. No changes for the Roosters, who needs them after winning well last weekend.

SAT – BULLDOGS v WARRIORS (Olympic Stadium)

Warriors have some decent stats heading into this game, if not their recent form. On the stats front the Warriors are W12 L3 v Bulldogs on a Saturday. Six of those games have been in Australia. Four at the Olympic Stadium where the Warriors record is W3 L1. Plus the Warriors have won five of their last six away and have won five in a row away to Sydney teams and all four in 2025.

Neither side is in great form, the Warriors have won only two of their last six. If the ladder was re-calculated on form since Winter started in June, the Warriors would be outside the top eight on points difference. Bulldogs would be 6^th. The Bulldogs are W6 L2 at the Olympic Stadium this season, but 0/2 in the wet.

As ever the main talking point on the player front is Lachlan Galvin and whether he will play because of an injury. If not, whether Toby Sexton will replace him or not. One wonders if all of that is helpful. What helps the Warriors is the return of Chanel Harris-Tavita and James Fisher-Harris among other.

An 85% chance of rain in Sydney on Saturday certainly does not help the Bulldogs.

SUN – GOLD COAST v SOUTH SYDNEY

This one is a real form v historic stats. For South Sydney anyway. South Sydney have won nine on a row v Gold Coast with a last loss in 2016 in Perth. South Sydney have won ten in a row v Titans at CBUS Stadium with a last loss in 2009. But……..the Rabbitohs have lost nine in a row coming into this game and Souths have won just one of their last nine games on a Sunday.

Gold Coast may have been dudded last round, but can’t excuse their Sunday form – Gold Coast have lost 11 games in a row on a Sunday. Given South Sydney’s injury list they get some relief with Brandon Smith, Jamie Humphreys and Latrell Mitchell all named. The Titans big in is Alofiana Khan-Pereira who replaces Philllip Sami

SUN – PARRAMATTA v NORTH QUEENSLAND

Parramatta have played four of the top six in their last four games, with one win to show for it against Brisbane. Which in fairness is probably one more win than most would have expected. While Parramatta’s form this season and at CommBank Stadium isn’t great, and on Sundays – Parramatta have won only one of their last nine on a Sunday, their form against the Cowboys is. Parramatta have won five of their last six home games v North Queensland. At CommBank, Parramatta are unbeaten in three games there v Cowboys.

Two million dollar players return this weekend with Dylan Brown and Jason Taumalolo named. At least the Cowboys player get to play as he is named at prop to start this weekend. Dylan Brown is a back up for now on the reserves list.

 2025 NRL Round 22 Review + Round 23 Preview

2025 NRL Season Stats So Far

And if you don’t believe our ratings, then help yourself to a bunch of stats from the 2025 NRL season.

Here’s the best of the NRL Team Stats from last weekend.