NRL | 2025 NRL Round 20 Ratings and Late Mail

Been too distracted by the Bulldogs? Do you need some last-minute NRL tipping advice? Or simply want something else to blame when the tips go wrong? Either way, saddle up for The Gurgler’s NRL Round 20 Ratings and Late Mail.

In a new additional to our stable of NRL stats and tipping products, we have used all the stats we have, smashed them against each other like atoms, and come up with a H2H rating.

It includes this year’s form with a bias because it is this year, but we don’t forget historic stats of the H2H against this week’s opponents, and the ground and day the teams are playing on.

We’ve also applied an adjustment for each team’s increase or decrease in win % over the Origin period.

Then slice up the scores out of 100% between the two sides. The bigger the percentage, the more likely to win.

2025 NRL Round 20 Ratings

Here are the H2H ratings and winners for the first of the Origin affected rounds.

Our ratings picked 6/7 with only the Dolphins letting this donkey down.

2025 NRL Round 20 Late Mail

Thu – DOLPHINS v NORTH QUEENSLAND (Suncorp)

This game looks a Dolphins win on paper, but it may not be as easy as that. For starters, the away team has won all five games between these sides so far. Dolphins are W8 L7 in their history so far v Qld sides but at Suncorp Stadium it is W2 L6. And for all their point scoring magic over the past few months, the Dolphins head into this game with a W1 L2 record for their last three. Not that the Cowboys are going any better with a W1 L5 record from their last six. Thursdays work for both sides though, Dolphins are W7 L2 on a Thursday and have won four in a row as the home side on a Thursday and the Cowboys have won six of their last eight games on a Thursday and five of their last six away on a Thursday.

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow returns to fullback in a timely boost after the attack looked flat for most of last weekend’s loss to the Sharks, but then the Dolphins have more players out with Mark Nicholls for concussion and Kulikefu Finefeuiaki out of the team this week with a broken thumb. As if the Dolphins could afford to lose any more forwards. North Queensland have Jaxson Purdue at five eighth as Jake Clifford remains out injured and the Cowboys have also lost Jordan McLean through injury. Cowboys are probably done for finals if they lose here, so plenty to play for, including their coach’s career.

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Fri – CRONULLA v ROOSTERS

H2H stats say Roosters – Roosters have won nine of the last 11 games v Cronulla. Cronulla have won once in their last six games v Roosters at Shark Park. But Cronulla have a really good record on a Friday – Cronulla have won eight games in a row at Shark Park on a Friday and 11 of their last 12. Cronulla’s Friday night record overall is pretty handy too, they have won 12 of their last 145 Friday games anywhere v anyone. Plus 7/8 v Sydney teams.

Cronulla have no notable ins and out this week, and why would they after a good win over the Dolphins last weekend. Roosters have named Chad Townsend instead of Sandon Smith at five eighth.

Fri – PENRITH v SOUTHS (CommBank)

Souths are on the verge of taking the season’s longest losing streak, so playing Penrith is bad timing indeed. A bit like the news that Cody Walker is out for the season. The form could hardly be more different heading into this games with Penrith on five straight wins and the Rabbitohs on six straight losses. But some stats glimmers of hope for South Sydney. Souths have won two of the last three clashes v Penrith away from Penrith Stadium. Souths also have a great record at CommBank Stadium, winning ten of their last 12 games. Their overall win rate at the ground of 67% is better than Penrith’s 59%. And have won their last four at the ground on a Friday.

Also helping South Sydney’s cause is Nathan Cleary and Isaah Yeo are both out for Penrith giving them a break after backing up from Origin last weekend. They swap the rest day with Dylan Edwards and Biran To’o returning from their rest last weekend. No Liam Martin for Penrith either but Scott Sorenson returns. Souths have a lot player movements with Latrell Mitchell returning from an Origin break moving Alex Johnston back to centres. Former Rabbitohs centre Jack Wighton continues at five eighth. The hard working Euan Aitken returns but the Rabbitohs also then don’t have Davvy Moale. Campbell Graham is out in the backline too. If the Rabbitohs get desperate they named Lewis Dodd on the bench.

Late note: Latrell is out for a month, leaving Souths chances of winning this game lower than 0.1% it was before.

Sat – CANBERRA v PARRAMATTA

Canberra couldn’t be going better, with seven wins in a row, leading the competition and facing a Parramatta side that aren’t in great form and the side they have a good rivalry against. Canberra have won three in a row v Parramatta and last lost in 2022. Canberra have won 15 of their last 18 home games v Parramatta and seven of their last eight on a Saturday. Canberra have also won their last four games v Sydney clubs. Parramatta have lost five in a row on a Saturday away from home.

Parramatta appear to have given up on Dylan Brown as he drops out of the starting 17, he may regret not going to Newcastle this season. Five eighth Joash Papalii is the future, so you can’t blame the Eels. And as if it wasn’t looking good enough for the Raiders they welcome back Josh Papalii and Hudson Young.

Sat – BULLDOGS v ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA (Accor)

Again Lachlan Galvin is the big story, and this time it is for being included and not dropped from the team like the game in Townsville last weekend. This at least gives Galvin to show the critics of his move to the Bulldogs what he is capable of. Things looks good for the Bulldogs to win too as they have won four in a row v Dragons and the last two at the Olympic Stadium and the last three on a Saturday. Bulldogs have won all four Saturday games this season. The Dragons meanwhile have an underwhelming record on a Saturday and v Sydney clubs with St George Illawarra winning just two of their last 15 games v Sydney clubs and one of their last eight away from home. Same 1/8 on a Saturday too. The Dragons have won two of their last 12 on a Saturday v any team. Plus the Dragons are 1/9 v Top Half opposition (top half at time of fixture).

Stephen Crichton and Kurt Mann return for the Bulldogs but they lose Bronson Xerri through injury. Toby Sexton is the unlucky man out this time dropping out of the 17 due to Galvin’s promotion. No real notable changes for the Dragons after they pushed the Roosters last weekend.

Sat – MELBOURNE v MANLY

This looks a Melbourne win on paper, like so many Storm matches this season, but there’s hope for Manly as Melbourne have a patchy Saturday record. Melbourne are vulnerable to Sydney teams at AAMI Park on a Saturday. Since 2018 their record is W6 L7. Over that same period the record is W11 L11 v all teams at the ground on a Saturday. But, Melbourne have won 26 of their last 29 homes matches at AAMI Park going back to 2023. The H2H at AAMI Park is Melbourne 6 Manly 4. It’s 3-3 on a Saturday. Melbourne have won four in a row at home to Manly, but two of those wins were at Sunshine Coast Stadium. Manly have won their last two games, but both of those were at home. Manly have lost their last three away games and are W2 L5 away from home this season.

No Ryan Papenhuyzen for the Storm, but there’s nothing wrong with the reliable Nick Meaney at fullback anyway. Plus the added firepower of Xavier Coates and Cameron Munster to return. Manly are unchanged from their last win, and the Tom Trbojevic centre experiment continues.

Sun – WESTS TIGERS v GOLD COAST (Leichhardt)

If the Gold Coast are going to break a winless run this could be the game they need. Wests Tigers is Gold Coast’s best opposition for win rate at 63%. They have a win rate of worse than 50% against every other side. There’s a bunch of other stats in the Titan’s favour too – Gold Coast have won 10 of their last 13 games v Wests Tigers, the

Titans are up 4-2 in H2H at Leichhardt and Gold Coast have beaten the Tigers in their last three Sunday clashes. Gold Coast are poor in general away to Sydney teams on a Sunday, but so are the Tigers at home on a Sunday.

Another advantage for the Titans is they also have Tino Fa’asuamaleaui returning from an Origin rest. Mid season recruit Taylan May gets the chance to resurrect his NRL career at the Tigers and is a notable inclusion for Wests Tigers. Recruiting his brother Terrell in the off season has certainly worked, and the Tigers seem to like having brothers. A settled spine and moving Adam Doueihi to lock gives the Tigers their best looking line up of the season.

Sun – NEWCASTLE v WAHS

Not much is going right for Newcastle off field, and on field isn’t a great deal better. Lucky their opponent this weekend is the Warriors whom the Knights have a good recent record against. Newcastle have won four home games in a row v Warriors and the last three at home on a Sunday. The only problem is this game is at home where Newcastle have been poor. The Knights are W2 L7 at home this season with their most recent home win four games ago and being the infamous booing at half time game. Newcastle have also lost both of their Sunday home games this season.

Dane Gagai at fullback is the Newcastle team point of interest, a position he played when he first arrived in Newcastle years ago. He could be there for a while with Kalyn Ponga out. Kurt Capewell return for the Warriors, which we’re not sure if it is a key inclusion. Warriors have a good record away having won their last five games away to a NSW club.

 2025 NRL Round 19 Review + Round 20 Preview

2025 NRL Season Stats So Far

And if you don’t believe our ratings, then help yourself to a bunch of stats from the 2025 NRL season.

Here’s the best of the NRL Team Stats from last weekend.