NRL | 2025 NRL Round 19 Ratings and Late Mail

Been too distracted by the State of Origin finale? Like the NRL bosses you forgot the NRL is on? Do you need some last-minute NRL tipping advice? Or simply want something else to blame when the tips go wrong? Either way, saddle up for The Gurgler’s NRL Round 19 Ratings and Late Mail.

In a new additional to our stable of NRL stats and tipping products, we have used all the stats we have, smashed them against each other like atoms, and come up with a H2H rating.

It includes this year’s form with a bias because it is this year, but we don’t forget historic stats of the H2H against this week’s opponents, and the ground and day the teams are playing on.

We’ve also applied an adjustment for each team’s increase or decrease in win % over the Origin period.

Then slice up the scores out of 100% between the two sides. The bigger the percentage, the more likely to win.

2025 NRL Round 19 Ratings

Here are the H2H ratings and winners for the first of the Origin affected rounds.

Our ratings picked 4/5 including the Broncos win over Bulldogs. It didn’t pick the Tigers winning like so many others.

The Ratings also includes the team’s relevant Origin period form.

2025 NRL Round 19 Late Mail

FRI – CRONULLA v DOLPHINS

Cronulla have been unaffected by Origin, so you would think that would be an advantage, but sadly the Sharks have won just once from their last five games. On the flip side the Dolphins are running hot with four wins from their last five games, and scoring points for points for fun. Except the blip v Newcastle. The Dolphins have The Hammers returning from his Origin heroics, but their injury list grows longer with the key out being Kodi Nikorima, and underrated contributor to the Dolphins success this season away from the justified noise about Isaiya Katoa. Sean O’Sullivan gets a crack at five eighth for the time being, but it will be interesting to see how that works with Katoa, who has grown as player exponentially since O’Sullivan was a regular starter for the Dolphins.

Stats slightly favour the Dolphins who have won both of the clashes between these sides since entering the NRL and are in much better form. The Dolphins have won their last three away games, and have won their last two away games in Sydney. But the Sharks have a good Friday record, Cronulla have won their last four Friday games and have won seven games in a row at Shark Park on a Friday, with a last loss in 2018.

SAT – NEWCASTLE v MELBOURNE

The Knights must be getting short of players if Adam O’Brien has names Jackson Hastings to start for a consecutive round, given he has appeared to be not very fond of using him. Newcastle don’t have Kalyn Ponga or Fletcher Sharpe for fullback but have at least kept name consistency by choosing Fletcher Hunt at number 1. Leo Thompson and Greg Marzhew are some big names returning. Melbourne has a bunch of Origin players named to back up in the reserves, but who knows how many will. Presume Cameron Munster won’t, he’s probably earned a weekend off.

The Knights have a surprising recent advantage in stats having beaten the Storm the last two times they met in Newcastle. But their home form this season isn’t great – Newcastle have won one of their last seven home games and are 2/8 this season. But the Storm, despite their current five game winning streak aren’t great away from home this season – Melbourne are only 2/4 for away games in NSW this season. Melbourne have won only one of their last five away games v NSW teams on a Friday.

SAT – ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA v ROOSTERS @ Kogarah

The Roosters have almost half a team back in this weekend, including all their State of Origin stars at this stage. Some happier than others. Some big non-Origin players return too with Victor Radley, Billy Smith and Sam Walker back in the side. Eight top line players coming back, no wonder they lost to the Tigers last weekend. Dragon’s centre Valentine Holmes returns from Origin after a big game for the Maroons.

H2H Stats don’t favour the Dragons though as they have won only three of their last 17 v Roosters. The Dragons win % is worse if you exclude Anzac Day clashes – it’s two wins from their last 15 matches. Dragons have also lost their last four games v Roosters on a Saturday. And Saturdays aren’t all right for fighting for the Dragons as they are 2/8 on a Saturday this season and are 2/5 at home. Roosters are 2/3 on a Saturday this season. Dragons are W2 L1 at Kogarah this season and W10 L8 since 2022.

SAT – NORTH QUEENSLAND v BULLDOGS

Given the Cowboys have won just once in their last five games, and that was against the Gold Coast, perhaps some of that winning Maroons magic will filter through to the north of the state. One would expect all of the Origin reps to plays, and they also have Murray Taulagi returning too. Bulldogs have their Origin players returning too, and they also need a pick-me-up after their shock collapse against the Broncos last weekend. They’ll need more than water bottles to help them. Rumour is that Stephen Crichton may not back up so Jethro Rinakama could make his debut.

The stats are hot and cold for both teams, much like their recent form. Since 2015, the Cowboys are W5 L2 v Bulldogs at home. Home or Away it is W11 L4. North Qld are W4 D1 L6 on a Saturday this season. At home that’s W3 D1 L4. North Qld are W1 D1 L2 v Sydney teams at home this season and W3 D1 L4 overall. Bulldogs have a 40% win rate v Qld teams this season, with three of their four losses this season coming against Qld sides.

SUN – WARRIORS v WESTS TIGERS

Well who’d thought the Wests Tigers would beat the Roosters last weekend. Parallels for this week too. As the Tigers broke an eight game losing streak to the Roosters last weekend, and their current losing streak to the Warriors is?….Eight. Warriors haven’t been great on Sundays this season, as they are W2 L3 on a Sunday this season and have lost their only Sunday home game this season. But are W6 L1 v Sydney teams this season. Wests Tigers are very even in their Sunday/away form with a W4 L4 record on a Sunday this season and are also W4 L4 away from home this season.

Wests Tigers spine looks great this weekend, despite high profile departures of recent weeks. Apisai Koroisau returns to hooker, Jarome Luai returns from Origin, and Sunia Turuva is finally the obvious answer to fill in at fullback. On the flip side the Warriors have to deal with the loss of Luke Metcalf and it is Tanah Boyd who comes into halfback for this weekend. Warriors have had two losses inside a bye at each end, and need to start re-winning to keep the Broncos out of the top four.

SUN – PARRAMATTA v PENRITH

A good old fashioned battle of the west, with Penrith with a bunch of players returning from Origin. It remains to be seen whether that will help, given the nature of the loss for NSW and so many Panthers players involved. If they do rest players, let’s not forget how well they did in Auckland last time when the Origin players were excluded. Parramatta have their Origin player returning in Zac Lomax, but more exciting for them is Tallyn Da Silva’s inclusion in the number 14 jersey after his mid season shift from the Wests Tigers. Hopefully it goes down better with fans than the previous Tigers mid season move.

Stats heavily favour Penrith as you could imagine, but at least It’s three wins each at CommBank Stadium. That aside, Penrith have won their last three v Parramatta, Penrith have won nine of their last ten games v Parramatta on a Sunday, and Parramatta have lost all four Sunday games v Sydney teams this season. Plus, Penrith have won 16 games in a row v Sydney teams on a Sunday.

SUN – GOLD COAST v BRISBANE

Looks like the Titans are churning through another coach and will start the cycle over again, so that won’t help them much this season considering they are already last. They do have big Tino back from Origin, but also returning are Jayden Campbell and David Fifita, two potential game changers there and gives them their best looking spine. Broncos have their Origin heroes returning too, the Queensland players on a high and Payne Haas probably tired from carrying the Blues. That’s OK because man mountain Xavier Willison is starting prop again.

Gold Coast have won their last three games on a Sunday v Brisbane, but all of those games were at Suncorp Stadium. The Broncos only recently halted a terrible losing streak on Sundays. Gold Coast have won three of their last five at CBUS Stadium v Brisbane, but the overall win % is 39%. Gold Coast have lost both of their Sunday home games at CBUS this season and conceded 30 points on both occasions. Titans are W2 L4 at CBUS Stadium this season.

 2025 NRL Round 18 Review + Round 19 Preview

2025 NRL Season Stats So Far

And if you don’t believe our ratings, then help yourself to a bunch of stats from the 2025 NRL season.

Here’s the best of the NRL Team Stats from last weekend.